HuskerMath's Week 1 Breakdown and Week 2 Predictions

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

"You're killin' me, FCS!" The biggest lesson learned from Week 1? Figure out a better way to deal with good FCS teams.

Week One Recap

Week One of the college football season is in the bag.  Overall, the HuskerMath model performed well, correctly predicting 79% of FBS games.  One of the big stories of opening weekend was the number of FCS teams that beat FBS teams, and this showed in the model.  The model's methodology essentially hand-waves FCS teams away...a process that is obviously not quite ready for prime time and will have to be fixed before next season.  If games involving FCS teams are not included the prediction accuracy for the weekend jumps to 82%.

In the chart below, the most closely matched teams had the smallest difference in P(win).  The FCS "upsets" are all in the bottom row.

Difference in P(win) Week 1 (FCS) Week 1 (no FCS)
0.0 - 0.1 1.00 1.00
0.1 - 0.2 0.75 0.75
0.2 - 0.3 0.40 0.40
0.3 - 0.4 0.75 0.75
0.4 - 0.5 0.67 0.80
0.5 - 0.6 1.00 1.00
0.6 - 0.7 0.75 0.50
0.7 - 0.8 1.00 1.00
0.8 - 0.9 0.88 1.00
0.9 - 1.0 0.73 1.00
Overall % Correct 0.79 0.82

Week 2 Season Expected Win Predictions

This is a good point to remind everyone that:

(1) Teams that played quality opponents (Georgia, Alabama, etc) vice those who played cupcakes and put up gawdy stats will see Exp. Win numbers reflect this.  I expect this effect to even out by Week 4 or 5 when most every team will have played a more evenly distributed schedule in terms of challenges.

(2) The model is basing 2013 predictions on one game.  This accounts for 50% of the model.  Residual 2012 data is used for the other 50%.  Week 3 will be the same.  Week 4 will be 75% 2013 data and 25% 2012 data.  Week 5 predictions will be based solely on 2013 data.

(3) Not all teams have played a game yet.  Most notable among this group is Stanford.

The first table is sorted on Week 2 Expected Season Wins.  The second table is sorted on % Change in Season Expected Wins since Week 2.

Team Week 1 Exp. Wins Week 2 Exp. Wins % change from prior week Team Week 1 Exp. Wins Week 2 Exp. Wins % change from prior week
Oregon 9.3 9.4 1% Colorado 2.5 4.8 93%
Florida State 9.6 9.3 -4% Tulane 3.7 5.9 58%
Alabama 10.0 9.3 -7% Eastern Michigan 3.7 5.4 45%
Georgia Tech 6.7 8.6 29% New Mexico State 3.9 5.3 36%
Arkansas State 8.3 8.5 3% Wake Forest 4.3 5.8 35%
Texas A&M 8.7 8.5 -3% Duke 5.5 7.4 34%
Michigan State 7.4 8.5 14% Massachusetts 2.6 3.5 33%
Cincinnati 8.3 8.4 1% Maryland 5.5 7.3 33%
Wisconsin 8.0 8.4 4% Houston 5.2 6.9 32%
Oklahoma State 7.5 8.3 12% Georgia Tech 6.7 8.6 29%
Bowling Green 7.7 8.3 7% Arkansas 5.0 6.5 29%
Baylor 6.7 8.2 22% Auburn 4.9 6.3 28%
Louisville 7.4 8.2 10% Idaho 2.7 3.4 27%
USC 7.8 8.1 4% Tennessee 5.4 6.9 27%
Ohio State 7.9 8.1 2% Marshall 5.6 7.1 27%
Northern Illinois 8.8 8.0 -9% Army 5.3 6.6 25%
San Jose State 8.3 8.0 -3% Missouri 5.6 6.9 23%
Florida 8.0 8.0 0% Baylor 6.7 8.2 22%
Oklahoma 7.3 8.0 9% Air Force 6.0 7.2 20%
Rutgers 7.7 7.8 2% Minnesota 5.5 6.5 18%
UCF 7.6 7.8 3% Illinois 4.4 5.2 18%
South Carolina 8.3 7.8 -6% Hawaii 3.4 4.0 17%
Notre Dame 7.9 7.7 -3% Rice 5.9 6.9 16%
North Carolina State 7.4 7.6 3% Texas State 6.0 7.0 16%
Texas 6.6 7.6 15% Indiana 5.8 6.7 16%
LSU 7.8 7.6 -2% North Texas 6.4 7.3 15%
Northwestern 7.8 7.5 -3% Miami (Florida) 6.0 6.9 15%
Arizona State 8.2 7.5 -8% Central Michigan 5.7 6.5 15%
Kent State 6.8 7.5 11% Texas 6.6 7.6 15%
Fresno State 8.4 7.4 -12% Virginia 5.7 6.5 15%
Nebraska 7.6 7.4 -2% Michigan State 7.4 8.5 14%
Washington 6.7 7.4 11% Georgia State 3.8 4.3 14%
Duke 5.5 7.4 34% Arizona 6.3 7.0 13%
Maryland 5.5 7.3 33% Boston College 5.2 5.9 12%
North Texas 6.4 7.3 15% Oklahoma State 7.5 8.3 12%
UCLA 6.8 7.3 7% Southern Mississippi 3.8 4.2 12%
Clemson 8.0 7.2 -10% Kent State 6.8 7.5 11%
Air Force 6.0 7.2 20% Texas Tech 6.3 7.1 11%
Marshall 5.6 7.1 27% Washington 6.7 7.4 11%
Middle Tennessee 6.5 7.1 10% Utah 5.9 6.5 11%
Michigan 7.2 7.1 -2% UTSA 5.8 6.4 10%
Utah State 8.8 7.1 -20% Louisville 7.4 8.2 10%
Western Kentucky 7.1 7.1 -1% Middle Tennessee 6.5 7.1 10%
Texas Tech 6.3 7.1 11% Oklahoma 7.3 8.0 9%
Arizona 6.3 7.0 13% Nevada 6.0 6.5 8%
Stanford 7.3 7.0 -4% UCLA 6.8 7.3 7%
Mississippi 6.5 7.0 7% Bowling Green 7.7 8.3 7%
Penn State 7.8 7.0 -10% Mississippi 6.5 7.0 7%
Texas State 6.0 7.0 16% East Carolina 6.4 6.8 5%
Miami (Florida) 6.0 6.9 15% Wisconsin 8.0 8.4 4%
Missouri 5.6 6.9 23% Buffalo 5.3 5.5 4%
Tennessee 5.4 6.9 27% USC 7.8 8.1 4%
Houston 5.2 6.9 32% North Carolina State 7.4 7.6 3%
Rice 5.9 6.9 16% Arkansas State 8.3 8.5 3%
East Carolina 6.4 6.8 5% UCF 7.6 7.8 3%
Indiana 5.8 6.7 16% Rutgers 7.7 7.8 2%
Army 5.3 6.6 25% Ohio State 7.9 8.1 2%
Ball State 6.6 6.6 -1% Troy 6.0 6.1 2%
Utah 5.9 6.5 11% Cincinnati 8.3 8.4 1%
Minnesota 5.5 6.5 18% UAB 4.8 4.9 1%
Central Michigan 5.7 6.5 15% Wyoming 5.4 5.4 1%
Virginia 5.7 6.5 15% Oregon 9.3 9.4 1%
Nevada 6.0 6.5 8% New Mexico 5.3 5.3 0%
Kansas State 8.5 6.5 -24% South Florida 5.6 5.6 0%
Arkansas 5.0 6.5 29% Florida 8.0 8.0 0%
North Carolina 7.7 6.4 -18% Kentucky 4.4 4.4 0%
UTSA 5.8 6.4 10% Akron 4.9 4.8 0%
Auburn 4.9 6.3 28% Ball State 6.6 6.6 -1%
Vanderbilt 8.2 6.2 -24% Western Kentucky 7.1 7.1 -1%
BYU 7.6 6.2 -19% Michigan 7.2 7.1 -2%
Troy 6.0 6.1 2% Washington State 4.5 4.5 -2%
Mississippi State 7.5 6.1 -18% South Alabama 5.1 5.0 -2%
Georgia 8.1 6.1 -25% LSU 7.8 7.6 -2%
West Virginia 6.3 6.0 -5% Nebraska 7.6 7.4 -2%
Tulane 3.7 5.9 58% Notre Dame 7.9 7.7 -3%
Boston College 5.2 5.9 12% Texas A&M 8.7 8.5 -3%
Western Michigan 6.6 5.8 -12% Kansas 4.0 3.9 -3%
Wake Forest 4.3 5.8 35% Northwestern 7.8 7.5 -3%
Boise State 8.2 5.8 -30% San Jose State 8.3 8.0 -3%
Syracuse 6.8 5.7 -16% Florida State 9.6 9.3 -4%
Ohio 8.0 5.7 -29% Stanford 7.3 7.0 -4%
Toledo 6.5 5.7 -13% West Virginia 6.3 6.0 -5%
South Florida 5.6 5.6 0% South Carolina 8.3 7.8 -6%
TCU 6.9 5.6 -19% Colorado State 5.6 5.2 -6%
Navy 6.2 5.6 -10% Memphis 5.5 5.2 -7%
Louisiana-Lafayette 7.2 5.5 -23% Alabama 10.0 9.3 -7%
Louisiana Tech 7.3 5.5 -24% Purdue 5.2 4.7 -8%
Oregon State 7.4 5.5 -25% Arizona State 8.2 7.5 -8%
Buffalo 5.3 5.5 4% Northern Illinois 8.8 8.0 -9%
Tulsa 7.7 5.5 -29% Iowa 5.9 5.3 -9%
Wyoming 5.4 5.4 1% Clemson 8.0 7.2 -10%
Louisiana-Monroe 7.2 5.4 -25% Temple 5.5 4.9 -10%
Virginia Tech 6.9 5.4 -22% Navy 6.2 5.6 -10%
Eastern Michigan 3.7 5.4 45% Penn State 7.8 7.0 -10%
Iowa 5.9 5.3 -9% UNLV 4.7 4.2 -10%
New Mexico State 3.9 5.3 36% Fresno State 8.4 7.4 -12%
New Mexico 5.3 5.3 0% Western Michigan 6.6 5.8 -12%
Colorado State 5.6 5.2 -6% Toledo 6.5 5.7 -13%
Illinois 4.4 5.2 18% UTEP 4.8 4.2 -13%
Memphis 5.5 5.2 -7% California 4.9 4.3 -13%
San Diego State 7.3 5.2 -29% Syracuse 6.8 5.7 -16%
Pittsburgh 6.8 5.1 -26% North Carolina 7.7 6.4 -18%
SMU 6.5 5.1 -23% Mississippi State 7.5 6.1 -18%
Iowa State 6.2 5.0 -20% BYU 7.6 6.2 -19%
South Alabama 5.1 5.0 -2% TCU 6.9 5.6 -19%
Temple 5.5 4.9 -10% Utah State 8.8 7.1 -20%
UAB 4.8 4.9 1% Iowa State 6.2 5.0 -20%
Akron 4.9 4.8 0% Florida International 5.8 4.6 -20%
Colorado 2.5 4.8 93% Virginia Tech 6.9 5.4 -22%
Purdue 5.2 4.7 -8% Miami (Ohio) 4.6 3.5 -23%
Florida International 5.8 4.6 -20% SMU 6.5 5.1 -23%
Washington State 4.5 4.5 -2% Louisiana-Lafayette 7.2 5.5 -23%
Kentucky 4.4 4.4 0% Kansas State 8.5 6.5 -24%
Florida Atlantic 5.8 4.3 -25% Vanderbilt 8.2 6.2 -24%
California 4.9 4.3 -13% Louisiana Tech 7.3 5.5 -24%
Georgia State 3.8 4.3 14% Florida Atlantic 5.8 4.3 -25%
Southern Mississippi 3.8 4.2 12% Oregon State 7.4 5.5 -25%
UNLV 4.7 4.2 -10% Louisiana-Monroe 7.2 5.4 -25%
UTEP 4.8 4.2 -13% Georgia 8.1 6.1 -25%
Hawaii 3.4 4.0 17% Pittsburgh 6.8 5.1 -26%
Kansas 4.0 3.9 -3% Tulsa 7.7 5.5 -29%
Miami (Ohio) 4.6 3.5 -23% San Diego State 7.3 5.2 -29%
Massachusetts 2.6 3.5 33% Ohio 8.0 5.7 -29%
Idaho 2.7 3.4 27% Boise State 8.2 5.8 -30%
Connecticut 6.6 3.1 -52% Connecticut 6.6 3.1 -52%

Generally, the model recognized teams that over- or under-performed expectations from the prior week.

Week 2 Game Predictions

Predicted Winner is in bold.

Away Home Away P(win) Home P(win)
Wake Forest Boston College 0.48 0.53
UAB LSU 0.17 0.83
Alcorn State Mississippi State 0.05 0.95
Arizona UNLV 0.77 0.23
Arkansas State Auburn 0.41 0.59
Army Ball State 0.35 0.65
Austin Peay Vanderbilt 0.03 0.97
Bowling Green Kent State 0.36 0.64
Buffalo Baylor 0.02 0.98
Cal Poly Fresno State 0.05 0.95
California-Davis Nevada 0.03 .97
Central Arkansas Colorado 0.10 .90
UCF Florida International 0.72 0.28
Chattanooga Georgia State 0.27 0.73
Cincinnati Illinois 0.58 0.42
Colorado State Tulsa 0.37 0.63
Duke Memphis 0.75 0.25
Eastern Kentucky Louisville 0.00 1.00
Eastern Michigan Penn State 0.38 0.62
Florida Miami (Florida) 0.45 0.55
Florida Atlantic East Carolina 0.17 0.83
Gardner-Webb Marshall 0.00 1.00
Grambling State Louisiana-Monroe 0.12 0.88
Hawai'i Oregon State 0.38 0.62
Houston Temple 0.77 0.23
Idaho Wyoming 0.28 0.72
Indiana State Purdue 0.12 0.88
James Madison Akron 0.28 0.72
Lamar Louisiana Tech 0.10 0.90
Louisiana-Lafayette Kansas State 0.27 0.73
Maine Massachusetts 0.30 0.70
Miami (Ohio) Kentucky 0.27 0.63
Middle Tennessee North Carolina 0.50 0.50
Minnesota New Mexico State 0.45 0.55
Missouri State Iowa 0.02 0.98
Montana State SMU 0.05 0.95
Navy Indiana 0.45 0.55
New Hampshire Central Michigan 0.00 1.00
New Mexico UTEP 0.41 0.59
Nicholls State Western Michigan 0.04 0.96
Norfolk State Rutgers 0.00 1.00
North Texas Ohio 0.72 0.28
Notre Dame Michigan 0.46 0.54
Oklahoma State UTSA 0.84 0.16
Old Dominion Maryland 0.00 1.00
Oregon Virginia 0.64 0.36
Portland State California 0.05 0.95
Prairie View A&M Texas State 0.00 1.00
Richmond North Carolina State 0.10 .90
Sacramento State Arizona State 0.00 1.00
Sam Houston State Texas A&M 0.01 0.99
Samford Arkansas 0.00 1.00
San Diego State Ohio State 0.17 0.83
San Jose State Stanford 0.32 0.68
Savannah State Troy 0.00 1.00
South Alabama Tulane 0.18 0.82
South Carolina Georgia 0.60 0.40
South Carolina State Clemson 0.00 1.00
South Dakota Kansas 0.29 0.71
South Florida Michigan State 0.28 0.72
Southeast Missouri State Mississippi 0.00 1.00
Southeastern Louisiana TCU 0.05 0.95
Southern Mississippi Nebraska 0.39 0.61
Stephen F. Austin Texas Tech 0.00 1.00
Syracuse Northwestern 0.32 0.68
Tennessee Tech Wisconsin 0.00 1.00
Tennessee-Martin Boise State 0.01 0.99
Texas BYU 0.66 0.34
Toledo Missouri 0.15 0.85
Utah State Air Force 0.18 0.82
Washington State USC 0.35 0.65
Weber State Utah 0.00 1.00
West Virginia Oklahoma 0.19 0.81
Western Carolina Virginia Tech 0.07 0.93
Western Kentucky Tennessee 0.12 0.88

Enjoy Week 2.

GBR!

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