College football F/+ picks: Week 5

Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

Picks and projections for Week 5 of the college football season.

Last year at this time, Alabama was comically ahead of everybody else in the F/+ rankings.

2012 F/+ rankings after 4 weeks
1. Alabama (+60.2%)
2. Oregon (+35.2%)
3. Florida State (+30.4%)
4. LSU (+25.6%)
5. Texas (+25.0%)

This year, Oregon is No. 1 at +33.1%, and the No. 5 team, Florida, is at just +21.6%, which would have been ninth at this time a year ago. The field has failed to separate itself to date, and with a smaller range of ratings, the New Method picks below still hate basically every big favorite. While that paid off pretty well early on, especially in FBS vs. FCS games, it has stopped paying off. And after four weeks, New Method is now officially under .500 while Old plugs right along at the 52 percent it always seems to reach.

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 131-133-5 (50%)
    Old: 89-83-3 (52%)

The Agreement picks are still doing well, though last week was the least successful yet. Agreement likes odd-numbered weeks better, evidently.

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
    TOTAL: 61-42-1 (59%)

But yeah, those FCS picks have stopped paying off. Really, really stopped paying off.

  • New Method, FBS vs. FCS Games
    Week 1: 17-13 (57%)
    Week 2: 23-9-2 (71%)
    Week 3: 5-10 (33%)
    Week 4: 3-12 (20%)
    TOTAL: 48-44-2 (52%)

Luckily there are now FBS/FCS games this week (unless you count Old Dominion's game versus Albany). So that's not a concern.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -7 Georgia Tech by 6.0 (23.1 - 17.1) 68.1% Virginia Tech
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Iowa State at Tulsa -3 Iowa State by 0.0 (26.9 - 26.9) 54.3% Iowa State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Fri 9:00 PM ESPNU Middle Tennessee at BYU -23 BYU by 19.5 (34.1 - 14.6) 91.4% Middle Tennessee
Fri 9:00 PM ESPN Utah State at San Jose State 10 Utah State by 9.0 (31.7 - 22.7) 74.3% San Jose State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Miami-FL at South Florida 19 Miami-FL by 12.3 (30.9 - 18.6) 80.3% South Florida
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Miami-OH at Illinois -24.5 Illinois by 19.6 (33.1 - 13.4) 91.6% Miami-OH
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Northern Illinois at Purdue 3.5 Northern Illinois by 6.7 (34.1 - 27.4) 69.6% Northern Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Oklahoma State at West Virginia 18.5 Oklahoma State by 15.0 (36.1 - 21.1) 85.0% West Virginia
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 SMU at TCU -20 TCU by 18.8 (32.1 - 13.4) 90.4% SMU
Sat 12:00 PM ABC South Carolina at Central Florida 7.5 Central Florida by 0.5 (37.3 - 36.8) 55.5% Central Florida
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network South Alabama at Tennessee -20 Tennessee by 13.5 (35.5 - 22.0) 82.4% South Alabama
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 East Carolina at North Carolina -12 North Carolina by 7.8 (28.1 - 20.3) 71.9% East Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia at Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh by 7.5 (32.2 - 24.7) 71.4% Pittsburgh
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN News Navy at Western Kentucky 3 Navy by 0.7 (37.6 - 36.9) 56.1% Western Kentucky
Sat 2:30 PM ESPN3 Akron at Bowling Green -15 Bowling Green by 13.3 (37.1 - 23.8) 82.1% Akron
Sat 3:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Oregon State -11 Oregon State by 14.3 (37.4 - 23.1) 83.7% Oregon State
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Ball State -2.5 Ball State by 2.2 (36.3 - 34.0) 59.7% Toledo
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at Duke -11 Duke by 17.1 (43.7 - 26.6) 88.1% Duke
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at NC State -24 NC State by 16.2 (37.6 - 21.4) 86.7% Central Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Connecticut at Buffalo -1 Connecticut by 5.9 (20.5 - 14.6) 68.0% Connecticut
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/
ESPN2
Florida State at Boston College 22 Florida State by 20.1 (35.8 - 15.7) 92.2% Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/
ESPN2
Iowa at Minnesota 1 Iowa by 2.4 (21.7 - 19.3) 60.1% Iowa
Sat 3:30 PM CBS LSU at Georgia -3 Georgia by 2.6 (32.8 - 30.2) 60.6% LSU
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Oklahoma at Notre Dame 3.5 Oklahoma by 1.9 (31.3 - 29.4) 58.9% Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Sports UTEP at Colorado State -13.5 Colorado State by 9.0 (32.8 - 23.8) 74.3% UTEP
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Wake Forest at Clemson -29 Clemson by 19.7 (34.3 - 14.7) 91.6% Wake Forest
Sat 4:00 PM Houston at UTSA 3 Houston by 1.9 (29.9 - 27.9) 59.0% UTSA
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Louisiana Tech at Army -2 Louisiana Tech by 2.5 (34.3 - 31.8) 60.4% Louisiana Tech
Sat 5:00 PM Temple at Idaho 8 Temple by 5.4 (29.0 - 23.6) 66.9% Idaho
Sat 6:30 PM ESPN Ole Miss at Alabama -15 Alabama by 14.2 (38.1 - 23.9) 83.6% Ole Miss
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Arizona at Washington -10 Arizona by 0.7 (28.7 - 28.1) 55.9% Arizona
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Florida at Kentucky 13 Florida by 13.1 (27.2 - 14.1) 81.8% Florida
Sat 7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at Rice -13.5 Rice by 9.3 (31.4 - 22.0) 74.9% Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Western Michigan -2.5 Western Michigan by 4.4 (31.6 - 27.2) 64.6% Western Michigan
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Texas A&M at Arkansas N/A Texas A&M by 3.4 (39.6 - 36.2) 62.5% N/A
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Tulane at UL-Monroe -14 UL-Monroe by 5.1 (26.9 - 21.8) 66.1% Tulane
Sat 7:00 PM LHN Wyoming at Texas State 12 Wyoming by 4.9 (27.3 - 22.4) 65.9% Texas State
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Missouri -21 Missouri by 22.5 (44.8 - 22.3) 95.1% Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 UAB at Vanderbilt -19.5 Vanderbilt by 13.2 (36.7 - 23.5) 81.9% UAB
Sat 8:00 PM CBS Sports Air Force at Nevada -7 Nevada by 11.9 (48.1 - 36.2) 79.6% Nevada
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 San Diego State at New Mexico State 17.5 San Diego State by 11.1 (28.4 - 17.3) 78.2% New Mexico State
Sat 8:00 PM UNLV at New Mexico 3 New Mexico by 0.4 (26.5 - 26.0) 55.4% New Mexico
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Wisconsin at Ohio State -7 Ohio State by 6.4 (32.7 - 26.2) 69.1% Wisconsin
Sat 10:00 PM ESPN Stanford at Washington State 10 Stanford by 15.3 (31.8 - 16.5) 85.4% Stanford
Sat 10:15 PM ESPNU Southern Miss at Boise State -28 Boise State by 15.2 (30.1 - 14.8) 85.2% Southern Miss
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 California at Oregon -36.5 Oregon by 36.8 (56.4 - 19.7) 100.0% Oregon
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN2 USC at Arizona State -6 USC by 0.1 (19.8 - 19.7) 54.6% USC
Sun 12:00 AM Fresno State at Hawaii 18.5 Fresno State by 9.6 (28.2 - 18.5) 75.4% Hawaii

OLD METHOD

Games in bold are ones in which New and Old methods agree.

Day Time (ET) Game Spread Prediction Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -7 Georgia Tech by 6.7 Virginia Tech
Thu 7:30 PM Iowa State at Tulsa -3 Iowa State by 1.5 Iowa State
Fri 9:00 PM Middle Tennessee at BYU -23 BYU by 25.9 BYU XXX
Fri 9:00 PM Utah State at San Jose State 10 Utah State by 14.7 Utah State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Miami-FL at South Florida 19 Miami-FL by 19.8 Miami-FL XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Miami-OH at Illinois -24.5 Illinois by 28.3 Illinois XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Northern Illinois at Purdue 3.5 Northern Illinois by 10.7 Northern Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM Oklahoma State at West Virginia 18.5 Oklahoma State by 21.3 Oklahoma State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM SMU at TCU -20 TCU by 25.9 TCU XXX
Sat 12:00 PM South Carolina at Central Florida 7.5 South Carolina by 0.7 Central Florida
Sat 12:21 PM South Alabama at Tennessee -20 Tennessee by 17.4 South Alabama
Sat 12:30 PM East Carolina at North Carolina -12 North Carolina by 9.3 East Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM Virginia at Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh by 9.4 Pittsburgh
Sat 2:00 PM Navy at Western Kentucky 3 Navy by 2.6 Western Kentucky
Sat 2:30 PM Akron at Bowling Green -15 Bowling Green by 17.2 Bowling Green XXX
Sat 3:00 PM Colorado at Oregon State -11 Oregon State by 19.2 Oregon State
Sat 3:00 PM Toledo at Ball State -2.5 Ball State by 1.5 Toledo
Sat 3:00 PM Troy at Duke -11 Duke by 21.0 Duke
Sat 3:30 PM Central Michigan at NC State -24 NC State by 21.7 Central Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Connecticut at Buffalo -1 Connecticut by 10.1 Connecticut
Sat 3:30 PM Florida State at Boston College 22 Florida State by 32.0 Florida State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Iowa at Minnesota 1 Iowa by 5.2 Iowa
Sat 3:30 PM LSU at Georgia -3 Georgia by 2.5 LSU
Sat 3:30 PM Oklahoma at Notre Dame 3.5 Oklahoma by 4.2 Oklahoma XXX
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at Colorado State -13.5 Colorado State by 12.4 UTEP
Sat 3:30 PM Wake Forest at Clemson -29 Clemson by 25.1 Wake Forest
Sat 4:00 PM Houston at UTSA 3 Houston by 4.2 Houston XXX
Sat 4:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Army -2 Louisiana Tech by 3.2 Louisiana Tech
Sat 5:00 PM Temple at Idaho 8 Temple by 10.0 Temple XXX
Sat 6:30 PM Ole Miss at Alabama -15 Alabama by 19.1 Alabama XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Arizona at Washington -10 Arizona by 2.4 Arizona
Sat 7:00 PM Florida at Kentucky 13 Florida by 22.0 Florida
Sat 7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at Rice -13.5 Rice by 11.3 Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:00 PM Kent State at Western Michigan -2.5 Western Michigan by 4.7 Western Michigan
Sat 7:00 PM Texas A&M at Arkansas XXX Texas A&M by 6.4 N/A N/A
Sat 7:00 PM Tulane at UL-Monroe -14 UL-Monroe by 5.9 Tulane
Sat 7:00 PM Wyoming at Texas State 12 Wyoming by 9.0 Texas State
Sat 7:30 PM Arkansas State at Missouri -21 Missouri by 29.8 Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM UAB at Vanderbilt -19.5 Vanderbilt by 17.4 UAB
Sat 8:00 PM Air Force at Nevada -7 Nevada by 13.4 Nevada
Sat 8:00 PM San Diego State at New Mexico State 17.5 San Diego State by 18.2 San Diego State XXX
Sat 8:00 PM UNLV at New Mexico 3 UNLV by 0.9 New Mexico
Sat 8:00 PM Wisconsin at Ohio State -7 Ohio State by 7.9 Ohio State XXX
Sat 10:00 PM Stanford at Washington State 10 Stanford by 19.2 Stanford
Sat 10:15 PM Southern Miss at Boise State -28 Boise State by 21.5 Southern Miss
Sat 10:30 PM California at Oregon -36.5 Oregon by 47.9 Oregon
Sat 10:30 PM USC at Arizona State -6 USC by 1.7 USC
Sun 12:00 AM Fresno State at Hawaii 18.5 Fresno State by 14.9 Hawaii
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