HuskerMath's Week 4 Model Recap and Week 5 Picks

Eric Francis

To date, the model has correctly picked the winner straight-up in 77% of games

Perhaps it was a function of the crappy games scheduled for Week 4, but the model performed better predicting last weeks games. It correctly predicted 80.4% of Week 4 games, up from 70.5% for Week 3. For the season, the model has correctly predicted the winner of 77.4% of games.

Season Expected Win Totals

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
UCF AAC 7.59 7.82 8.05 8.41 8.59 2%
Louisville AAC 7.41 8.16 7.60 7.71 8.31 8%
Cincinnati AAC 8.29 8.40 7.66 6.80 8.12 19%
Rutgers AAC 7.65 7.84 7.56 7.73 8.07 4%
Houston AAC 5.21 6.86 5.83 6.10 6.28 3%
SMU AAC 6.54 5.05 5.87 6.19 5.53 -11%
Memphis AAC 5.55 5.18 5.27 5.41 5.31 -2%
Connecticut AAC 6.61 3.14 5.67 4.57 4.41 -4%
South Florida AAC 5.62 5.62 4.62 3.93 3.82 -3%

The model continues to recognize something in UCF's play that isn't reflected int he polls. UCF received votes in this week's AP poll whereas Louisville is ranked #7 in the same poll. Louisville had as significant increase in expected wins this week however. Cincinnati's and Rutgers' gains at the expense of SMU, Houston, and Memphis.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Florida State ACC 9.62 9.28 9.70 9.88 9.78 -1%
Clemson ACC 8.00 7.23 8.58 8.41 9.02 7%
Maryland ACC 5.53 7.34 6.27 7.15 7.59 6%
Virginia Tech ACC 6.91 5.37 7.03 7.85 7.49 -5%
Georgia Tech ACC 6.69 8.64 6.48 7.00 7.34 5%
North Carolina ACC 7.74 6.38 7.70 7.88 7.30 -7%
Pittsburgh ACC 6.83 5.08 6.56 6.72 7.18 7%
North Carolina State ACC 7.39 7.63 7.82 7.85 7.13 -9%
Miami (Florida) ACC 6.04 6.95 6.95 6.90 7.11 3%
Syracuse ACC 6.83 5.71 6.09 6.05 6.25 3%
Virginia ACC 5.66 6.48 5.96 5.94 6.20 4%
Duke ACC 5.52 7.38 6.21 5.40 5.25 -3%
Boston College ACC 5.21 5.85 5.60 4.98 5.04 1%
Wake Forest ACC 4.30 5.79 4.37 3.90 4.59 18%

Little changed for expected wins in the ACC. FSU and Clemson remain the conference's elite teams, and that's unlikely to change barring an upset until they meet on the field. There is a real bottleneck developing in the ACC, with 7 teams within .48 exp. wins of each other.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Oklahoma State Big 12 7.46 8.34 8.46 8.70 8.71 0%
Oklahoma Big 12 7.27 7.95 7.66 6.77 7.72 14%
Texas Tech Big 12 6.35 7.05 7.11 7.71 7.62 -1%
Kansas State Big 12 8.49 6.47 7.48 7.63 7.22 -5%
Baylor Big 12 6.68 8.16 6.65 7.55 7.09 -6%
Texas Big 12 6.60 7.57 6.38 5.76 6.20 8%
TCU Big 12 6.92 5.61 6.67 5.99 5.98 0%
West Virginia Big 12 6.31 6.01 5.52 5.63 5.27 -6%
Iowa State Big 12 6.25 4.98 5.32 4.89 5.00 2%
Kansas Big 12 3.98 3.85 4.64 4.51 4.54 1%

Despite its jaw-dropping offensive performances this year, Baylor is not scoring a lot of points in the model. It actually dropped .46 exp. wins this week, largely due to Texas' and Oklahoma's gains. The head-scratcher in the model remains Kansas State, which is tenaciously clinging to the upper-half of the Big 12.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Michigan Big Ten 7.20 7.09 8.13 7.77 8.77 13%
Ohio State Big Ten 7.90 8.05 8.32 9.33 8.73 -6%
Northwestern Big Ten 7.80 7.55 8.30 8.41 8.41 0%
Michigan State Big Ten 7.41 8.47 8.08 8.05 7.76 -4%
Wisconsin Big Ten 8.03 8.36 7.80 7.42 7.75 4%
Penn State Big Ten 7.79 6.99 8.01 7.38 7.73 5%
Minnesota Big Ten 5.53 6.50 6.70 6.70 7.26 8%
Nebraska Big Ten 7.62 7.44 7.38 6.95 6.88 -1%
Iowa Big Ten 5.88 5.33 5.47 6.16 6.53 6%
Illinois Big Ten 4.41 5.19 5.35 5.07 5.16 2%
Indiana Big Ten 5.81 6.74 4.89 5.84 4.86 -17%
Purdue Big Ten 5.17 4.75 5.36 5.03 4.74 -6%

In the Big Ten, Michigan, despite almost losing to American Conference cellar dweller UConn, gained a full game in exp. wins. These gains came at the expense of Michigan State, Nebraska, and Ohio State. It's worth noting that the Huskers are one of only three teams in FBS who have shown decreased exp. wins every week this season. The other two are Western Michigan and Kentucky.

The changes in the Big Ten this week are a good reminder of how a purely data-driven model can sometimes seem detached from results on the field. One would be hard pressed to find anyone who actually watched football on Friday who would have expected Michigan to show an increase in expected wins on the season. That, however, is due mostly to the one game that Michigan played, versus all the games that Michigan's opponents, and their opponents, played. Strange results aren't necessarily all that strange when the totality of the college football schedule is considered.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Notre Dame Independent 7.891 7.675 7.452 8.01 8.53 6%
Navy Independent 6.222 5.606 6.733 7.045 6.95 -1%
BYU Independent 7.576 6.173 7.738 7.8 6.74 -14%
Army Independent 5.313 6.627 5.485 4.271 3.75 -12%
New Mexico State Independent 3.875 5.282 3.593 3.052 3.03 -1%
Idaho Independent 2.693 3.431 2.839 2.779 2.49 -11%
Old Dominion Independent 0.363 0.227 0.254 0.268 0.26 -1%

Notre Dame gained this week, primarily due to beating Michigan State. The model isn't being fooled by BYU any longer, as it fell more than 1 exp. win.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Oregon Pac 12 9.314 9.366 9.522 9.657 9.62 0%
Stanford Pac 12 7.291 7.026 7.673 8.078 8.54 6%
USC Pac 12 7.849 8.125 7.501 7.504 8.12 8%
Arizona State Pac 12 8.232 7.538 7.801 7.607 7.88 4%
Oregon State Pac 12 7.36 5.515 6.599 7.307 7.81 7%
Washington Pac 12 6.696 7.431 7.303 7.363 7.49 2%
UCLA Pac 12 6.756 7.259 6.868 7.932 7.43 -6%
Utah Pac 12 5.921 6.547 6.912 6.533 7.02 7%
Arizona Pac 12 6.253 7.04 6.506 6.871 6.84 0%
Washington State Pac 12 4.527 4.45 4.95 4.955 5.45 10%
California Pac 12 4.94 4.286 5.068 4.61 4.61 0%
Colorado Pac 12 2.493 4.813 3.581 3.368 3.39 1%

Oregon is in solid control of the Pac-12, and will remain there unless Stanford can upset the Ducks. USC remains a surprise in the model.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Alabama SEC 9.965 9.273 9.951 10.609 10.59 0%
LSU SEC 7.754 7.569 8.328 8.549 8.62 1%
Texas A&M SEC 8.741 8.488 8.922 8.383 8.41 0%
South Carolina SEC 8.295 7.813 7.634 8.05 8.13 1%
Florida SEC 7.961 7.968 7.777 7.748 7.94 2%
Mississippi SEC 6.528 6.987 7.08 7.703 7.78 1%
Georgia SEC 8.137 6.089 8.103 8.299 7.68 -7%
Vanderbilt SEC 8.159 6.189 7.356 7.013 7.00 0%
Missouri SEC 5.642 6.946 6.149 5.394 6.73 25%
Auburn SEC 4.947 6.332 5.943 6.534 6.57 1%
Mississippi State SEC 7.475 6.099 6.839 5.669 6.21 9%
Tennessee SEC 5.449 6.934 5.607 5.442 5.87 8%
Arkansas SEC 5.009 6.467 5.577 6.319 5.66 -10%
Kentucky SEC 4.39 4.382 4.212 4.194 3.88 -7%

There's some really interesting stuff in the SEC. Alabama remains the only FBS team with more than 10 expected regular season wins. Ole Miss has made steady increases in exp. wins each week, so the 'Bama-Ole Miss game this week is setting up to be a huge factor in sorting out the SEC. LSU is back in the familiar position of #2 behind Alabama. Missouri was the big gainer in the SEC this week, with an exp. win increase of 25% for the season.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Week 4 Total Pred Week 5 Total Pred Current Week % Change
Northern Illinois MAC 8.812 8.012 9.125 9.307 9.27 -6%
Fresno State MWC 8.437 7.446 8.529 7.372 8.79 13%
Bowling Green MAC 7.707 8.273 8.832 8.358 8.37 -2%
Ohio MAC 7.998 5.663 7.864 7.878 7.92 1%
Utah State MWC 8.793 7.075 8.121 8.462 7.79 -2%
Middle Tennessee CUSA 6.48 7.11 6.35 6.81 7.40 -6%
San Jose State MWC 8.257 7.985 7.542 7.985 7.20 -5%
Boise State MWC 8.22 5.769 7.617 6.504 7.17 -28%
Arkansas State Sun Belt 8.262 8.522 7.317 7.639 7.16 9%
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 7.154 5.525 6.293 6.245 7.07 4%
Tulsa CUSA 7.664 5.475 7.605 6.825 7.07 3%
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7.128 7.063 7.564 6.999 6.86 0%
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 7.191 5.385 6.551 6.712 6.76 -13%
Toledo MAC 6.478 5.659 6.065 6.088 6.64 -2%
UTSA CUSA 5.768 6.361 6.446 6.406 6.63 -2%
Ball State MAC 6.605 6.551 6.449 5.607 6.59 -19%
Texas State Sun Belt 6 6.976 6.504 6.459 6.35 -9%
North Texas CUSA 6.373 7.337 6.078 6.193 6.22 -11%
Rice CUSA 5.899 6.859 6.172 7.04 6.14 4%
East Carolina CUSA 6.432 6.757 6.599 6.18 6.07 9%
Wyoming MWC 5.37 5.407 5.08 5.196 5.96 -6%
Kent State MAC 6.762 7.523 6.47 6.198 5.84 3%
Troy Sun Belt 6.032 6.134 6.356 6.173 5.78 0%
South Alabama Sun Belt 5.05 4.959 5.194 5.821 5.54 0%
Nevada MWC 6.015 6.475 5.274 5.107 5.28 1%
Buffalo MAC 5.322 5.514 5.182 4.846 5.27 9%
San Diego State MWC 7.288 5.167 5.721 5.946 5.26 17%
Marshall CUSA 5.623 7.149 5.141 5.162 5.08 -6%
New Mexico MWC 5.26 5.27 5.279 5.066 5.06 9%
Florida Atlantic CUSA 5.785 4.348 5.479 6.089 4.96 -5%
Louisiana Tech CUSA 7.285 5.517 5.777 5.306 4.85 -12%
Air Force MWC 6.033 7.228 5.632 5.489 4.83 -10%
UNLV MWC 4.718 4.226 4.261 4.576 4.77 -18%
UTEP CUSA 4.846 4.221 4.611 5.133 4.56 -23%
UAB CUSA 4.836 4.881 4.441 4.384 4.55 -10%
Florida International CUSA 5.808 4.618 5.644 4.149 4.54 19%
Western Michigan MAC 6.577 5.798 5.141 4.765 4.53 -8%
Colorado State MWC 5.584 5.228 4.944 5.539 4.39 -10%
Central Michigan MAC 5.655 6.494 5.355 4.95 4.36 10%
Tulane CUSA 3.721 5.878 3.39 4.607 4.33 15%
Akron MAC 4.853 4.833 4.869 4.708 4.26 3%
Hawaii MWC 3.447 4.028 3.429 3.453 3.78 -12%
Miami (Ohio) MAC 4.574 3.538 3.892 4.433 3.64 0%
Southern Mississippi CUSA 3.801 4.244 3.259 3.468 3.56 -12%
Eastern Michigan MAC 3.699 5.368 4.006 4.355 3.37 4%
Massachusetts MAC 2.643 3.518 2.125 2.024 1.82 -21%
Georgia State Sun Belt 3.754 4.273 2.459 2.318 1.66 9%

Northern Illinois and Fresno State are tops among non-AQ conferences. The Bulldogs would probably like to get that game against Pac-12 bottom feeder Colorado rescheduled. It would be a near-certain win for them and might be the key to getting Fresno State into the BCS.

Week 5 Model Picks

Winner is in bold. Some of the biggest games are:

Wisconsin @ Ohio State 0.434 0.568
Mississippi @ Alabama 0.184 0.818
Oklahoma @ Notre Dame 0.333 0.669
LSU @ Georgia 0.407 0.595

Visitor Home Vis P(win) Home P(win)
Iowa State Tulsa 0.629 0.379
Navy Western Kentucky 0.301 0.701
SMU TCU 0.364 0.638
Troy Duke 0.425 0.577
Stanford Washington State 0.809 0.193
UAB Vanderbilt 0.085 0.917
Utah State San Jose State 0.393 0.609
Wisconsin Ohio State 0.434 0.568
Toledo Ball State 0.393 0.609
East Carolina North Carolina 0.158 0.844
Tulane Louisiana-Monroe 0.097 0.905
Florida Atlantic Rice 0.269 0.733
Fresno State Hawai'i 0.629 0.373
Houston UTSA 0.346 0.656
Miami (Florida) South Florida 0.663 0.339
Middle Tennessee BYU 0.104 0.898
Mississippi Alabama 0.184 0.818
Kent State Western Michigan 0.443 0.559
California Oregon 0.17 0.832
Virginia Pittsburgh 0.322 0.68
Army Louisiana Tech 0.188 0.814
Akron Bowling Green 0.17 0.832
Northern Illinois Purdue 0.548 0.454
Florida Kentucky 0.78 0.222
Colorado Oregon State 0.074 0.928
Oklahoma Notre Dame 0.333 0.669
Oklahoma State West Virginia 0.647 0.355
Wyoming Texas State 0.421 0.581
San Diego State New Mexico State 0.651 0.351
Central Michigan North Carolina State 0.24 0.762
Connecticut Buffalo 0.602 0.4
Wake Forest Clemson 0.151 0.851
Florida State Boston College 0.754 0.248
South Alabama Tennessee 0.25 0.752
Air Force Nevada 0.326 0.676
Miami (Ohio) Illinois 0.406 0.596
Temple Idaho 0.636 0.366
Southern Mississippi Boise State 0.094 0.908
Texas A&M Arkansas 0.669 0.333
South Carolina UCF 0.55 0.45
UTEP Colorado State 0.339 0.663
Texas Iowa State 0.419 0.583
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 0.343 0.659
USC Arizona State 0.394 0.608
Iowa Minnesota 0.474 0.528
Arizona Washington 0.348 0.654
Arkansas State Missouri 0.364 0.638
UNLV New Mexico 0.327 0.675
LSU Georgia 0.407 0.595

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