HuskerMath's Week 3 Model Recap and Week 4 Picks

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Some weeks are diamonds, some weeks are stones. Last week was the latter.

First of all, let me apologize for my tardiness getting this posted. It's been one of those weeks. Bo Pelini may have had a better week than I did.

Recap of Last Week's Predictions

In Week 2 the model correctly predicted 82.5% of games. Things weren't quite so rosy in Week 3, with the model correctly predicting only 71.6% of games. The Colorado-Fresno State game was not played, so the prediction was not used in the calculations.

Year to date, the model has correctly predicted 76.7% of games.

Updated Regular Season Expected Wins

This is the first week in which the model considers only on field data from 2013.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
UCF AAC 7.59 7.82 8.05 8.41 4.5%
Rutgers AAC 7.65 7.84 7.56 7.73 2.3%
Louisville AAC 7.41 8.16 7.60 7.71 1.5%
Cincinnati AAC 8.29 8.40 7.66 6.80 -11.2%
SMU AAC 6.54 5.05 5.87 6.19 5.5%
Houston AAC 5.21 6.86 5.83 6.10 4.7%
Memphis AAC 5.55 5.18 5.27 5.41 2.5%
Connecticut AAC 6.61 3.14 5.67 4.57 -19.4%
South Florida AAC 5.62 5.62 4.62 3.93 -15.0%
Temple AAC 5.48 4.94 4.43 3.49 -21.1%

UCF's victory over Penn State has pushed it to the top of the model standings. The model continues to not like Louisville.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
Florida State ACC 9.62 9.28 9.70 9.88 1.8%
Clemson ACC 8.00 7.23 8.58 8.41 -2.0%
North Carolina ACC 7.74 6.38 7.70 7.88 2.4%
Virginia Tech ACC 6.91 5.37 7.03 7.85 11.7%
North Carolina State ACC 7.39 7.63 7.82 7.85 0.4%
Maryland ACC 5.53 7.34 6.27 7.15 13.9%
Georgia Tech ACC 6.69 8.64 6.48 7.00 8.1%
Miami (Florida) ACC 6.04 6.95 6.95 6.90 -0.7%
Pittsburgh ACC 6.83 5.08 6.56 6.72 2.5%
Syracuse ACC 6.83 5.71 6.09 6.05 -0.6%
Virginia ACC 5.66 6.48 5.96 5.94 -0.3%
Duke ACC 5.52 7.38 6.21 5.40 -13.0%
Boston College ACC 5.21 5.85 5.60 4.98 -11.0%
Wake Forest ACC 4.30 5.79 4.37 3.90 -10.7%

The model still has Florida State and Clemson as the teams to beat in the ACC. The October 19th game between the two is looming very large in sorting out the ACC. Neither played in Week 3, and yet there was noticeable movement in their expected wins totals. This is a good example of how changes to other teams can, and do, affect teams that didn't play each other.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
Oklahoma State Big 12 7.46 8.34 8.46 8.70 2.9%
Texas Tech Big 12 6.35 7.05 7.11 7.71 8.5%
Kansas State Big 12 8.49 6.47 7.48 7.63 1.9%
Baylor Big 12 6.68 8.16 6.65 7.55 13.6%
Oklahoma Big 12 7.27 7.95 7.66 6.77 -11.7%
TCU Big 12 6.92 5.61 6.67 5.99 -10.2%
Texas Big 12 6.60 7.57 6.38 5.76 -9.6%
West Virginia Big 12 6.31 6.01 5.52 5.63 2.0%
Iowa State Big 12 6.25 4.98 5.32 4.89 -8.0%
Kansas Big 12 3.98 3.85 4.64 4.51 -2.8%

The model has a different view of the Big 12 than conventional wisdom holds. This, along with its predictions about Louisville, are some of the more interesting things to watch as the season goes on.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
Ohio State Big Ten 7.90 8.05 8.32 9.33 12.0%
Northwestern Big Ten 7.80 7.55 8.30 8.41 1.3%
Michigan State Big Ten 7.41 8.47 8.08 8.05 -0.4%
Michigan Big Ten 7.20 7.09 8.13 7.77 -4.5%
Wisconsin Big Ten 8.03 8.36 7.80 7.42 -4.9%
Penn State Big Ten 7.79 6.99 8.01 7.38 -7.9%
Nebraska Big Ten 7.62 7.44 7.38 6.95 -5.9%
Minnesota Big Ten 5.53 6.50 6.70 6.70 -0.1%
Iowa Big Ten 5.88 5.33 5.47 6.16 12.7%
Indiana Big Ten 5.81 6.74 4.89 5.84 19.3%
Illinois Big Ten 4.408 5.186 5.35 5.072 -5.2%
Purdue Big Ten 5.169 4.746 5.358 5.033 -6.1%

There were several interesting developments in the Big Ten last week. Last week I said that Michigan has established itself as the team to beat in the Legends Division. I guess Akron didn't get that memo. Michigan State discovered an office and Nebraska continued its string of beatdowns on national television. Based on its win over Cal, the Buckeyes are pulling away from the rest of the pack, and the logjam between #2 and #6 is breaking apart.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
Notre Dame IND 7.89 7.68 7.45 8.01 7.5%
BYU IND 7.58 6.17 7.74 7.80 0.8%
Navy IND 6.22 5.61 6.73 7.05 4.6%
Army IND 5.31 6.63 5.49 4.27 -22.1%
New Mexico State IND 3.88 5.28 3.59 3.05 -15.1%
Idaho IND 2.69 3.43 2.84 2.78 -2.1%

Last week I forgot to include the independents. Here you are.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
Oregon Pac 12 9.31 9.37 9.52 9.66 1.4%
Stanford Pac 12 7.29 7.03 7.67 8.08 5.3%
UCLA Pac 12 6.76 7.26 6.87 7.93 15.5%
Arizona State Pac 12 8.23 7.54 7.80 7.61 -2.5%
USC Pac 12 7.85 8.13 7.50 7.50 0.0%
Washington Pac 12 6.70 7.43 7.30 7.36 0.8%
Oregon State Pac 12 7.36 5.52 6.60 7.31 10.7%
Arizona Pac 12 6.25 7.04 6.51 6.87 5.6%
Utah Pac 12 5.92 6.55 6.91 6.53 -5.5%
Washington State Pac 12 4.53 4.45 4.95 4.96 0.1%
California Pac 12 4.94 4.29 5.07 4.61 -9.0%
Colorado Pac 12 2.49 4.81 3.58 3.37 -5.9%

It may not matter if Colorado and Fresno State don't make up their game from Saturday. The Buffs probability of becoming bowl eligible are less than .0001. UCLA took a big jump this week following their dismantling of Nebraska. Despite the victory over Wisconsin, Arizona State lost a bit of ground. This is probably do more to gains by UCLA and Stanford than from their play on Saturday.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3 to W4 change
Alabama SEC 9.97 9.27 9.95 10.61 6.6%
LSU SEC 7.75 7.57 8.33 8.55 2.7%
Texas A&M SEC 8.74 8.49 8.92 8.38 -6.0%
Georgia SEC 8.14 6.09 8.10 8.30 2.4%
South Carolina SEC 8.30 7.81 7.63 8.05 5.4%
Florida SEC 7.96 7.97 7.78 7.75 -0.4%
Mississippi SEC 6.53 6.99 7.08 7.70 8.8%
Vanderbilt SEC 8.16 6.19 7.36 7.01 -4.7%
Auburn SEC 4.95 6.33 5.94 6.53 9.9%
Arkansas SEC 5.01 6.47 5.58 6.32 13.3%
Mississippi State SEC 7.48 6.10 6.84 5.67 -17.1%
Tennessee SEC 5.45 6.93 5.61 5.44 -2.9%
Missouri SEC 5.642 6.946 6.149 5.394 -12%
Kentucky SEC 4.39 4.382 4.212 4.194 0%

The SEC title game matchup seems pretty much set, with Alabama and Georgia in the drivers' seats. The model actually favored A&M last week, so Alabama's exp. wins took a big jump with the win over A&M. The Alabama-LSU is looking more and important, as LSU's stock has risen each week.

Team Conf W1 W2 W3 W4 W3-W4 change
Northern Illinois MAC 8.81 8.01 9.13 9.31 2.0%
Utah State MWC 8.79 7.08 8.12 8.46 4.2%
Bowling Green MAC 7.71 8.27 8.83 8.36 -5.4%
San Jose State MWC 8.26 7.99 7.54 7.99 5.9%
Ohio MAC 8.00 5.66 7.86 7.88 0.2%
Arkansas State Sun Belt 8.26 8.52 7.32 7.64 4.4%
Fresno State MWC 8.44 7.45 8.53 7.37 -13.6%
Rice CUSA 5.90 6.86 6.17 7.04 14.1%
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7.13 7.06 7.56 7.00 -7.5%
Tulsa CUSA 7.66 5.48 7.61 6.83 -10.3%
Middle Tennessee CUSA 6.48 7.11 6.35 6.81 7.2%
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 7.19 5.39 6.55 6.71 2.5%
Boise State MWC 8.22 5.77 7.62 6.50 -14.6%
Texas State Sun Belt 6.00 6.98 6.50 6.46 -0.7%
UTSA CUSA 5.77 6.36 6.45 6.41 -0.6%
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 7.15 5.53 6.29 6.25 -0.8%
Kent State MAC 6.76 7.52 6.47 6.20 -4.2%
North Texas CUSA 6.37 7.34 6.08 6.19 1.9%
East Carolina CUSA 6.43 6.76 6.60 6.18 -6.3%
Troy Sun Belt 6.03 6.13 6.36 6.17 -2.9%
Florida Atlantic CUSA 5.79 4.35 5.48 6.09 11.1%
Toledo MAC 6.48 5.66 6.07 6.09 0.4%
San Diego State MWC 7.29 5.17 5.72 5.95 3.9%
South Alabama Sun Belt 5.05 4.96 5.19 5.82 12.1%
Ball State MAC 6.61 6.55 6.45 5.61 -13.1%
Colorado State MWC 5.58 5.23 4.94 5.54 12.0%
Air Force MWC 6.03 7.23 5.63 5.49 -2.5%
Louisiana Tech CUSA 7.29 5.52 5.78 5.31 -8.2%
Wyoming MWC 5.37 5.41 5.08 5.20 2.3%
Marshall CUSA 5.62 7.15 5.14 5.16 0.4%
UTEP CUSA 4.85 4.22 4.61 5.13 11.3%
Nevada MWC 6.02 6.48 5.27 5.11 -3.2%
New Mexico MWC 5.26 5.27 5.28 5.07 -4.0%
Central Michigan MAC 5.66 6.49 5.36 4.95 -7.6%
Buffalo MAC 5.32 5.51 5.18 4.85 -6.5%
Western Michigan MAC 6.58 5.80 5.14 4.77 -7.3%
Akron MAC 4.85 4.83 4.87 4.71 -3.3%
Tulane CUSA 3.72 5.88 3.39 4.61 35.9%
UNLV MWC 4.72 4.23 4.26 4.58 7.4%
Miami (Ohio) MAC 4.57 3.54 3.89 4.43 13.9%
UAB CUSA 4.84 4.88 4.44 4.38 -1.3%
Eastern Michigan MAC 3.70 5.37 4.01 4.36 8.7%
Florida International CUSA 5.81 4.62 5.64 4.15 -26.5%
Southern Mississippi CUSA 3.80 4.24 3.26 3.47 6.4%
Hawaii MWC 3.45 4.03 3.43 3.45 0.7%
Georgia State Sun Belt 3.75 4.27 2.46 2.32 -5.7%
Massachusetts MAC 2.64 3.52 2.13 2.02 -4.8%

Colorado may not care if that game is reschedule, but it may matter to Fresno State. Northern Illinois looks to be the most-likely non-AQ BCS team again this year.

Week 4 Model Predictions

Away Home Away P(win) Home P(win)
Maine Northwestern 0.00 1.00
Florida A&M Ohio State 0.00 1.00
Austin Peay Ohio 0.00 1.00
Western Illinois UNLV 0.10 0.90
Marshall Virginia Tech 0.07 0.93
North Carolina Georgia Tech 0.45 0.55
Vanderbilt Massachusetts 0.94 0.06
Tulane Syracuse 0.32 0.58
Eastern Illinois Northern Illinois 0.00 1.00
Cincinnati Miami (Ohio) 0.65 0.35
UTSA UTEP 0.46 0.54
Morgan State Western Kentucky 0.20 0.80
Colorado State Alabama 0.01 0.99
Arkansas Rutgers 0.34 0.66
Oregon State San Diego State 0.47 0.53
Kent State Penn State 0.35 0.65
Northwestern State UAB 0.11 0.89
Murray State Bowling Green 0.00 1.00
Iowa State Tulsa 0.38 0.62
Louisiana-Monroe Baylor 0.03 0.98
Houston Rice 0.42 0.58
Ball State Eastern Michigan 0.01 0.99
Western Michigan Iowa 0.36 0.64
SMU Texas A&M 0.24 0.76
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 0.38 0.62
Utah BYU 0.32 0.68
Tennessee Florida 0.23 0.77
Idaho Washington State 0.27 0.73
Arizona State Stanford 0.45 0.55
Florida International Louisville 0.22 0.78
Michigan Connecticut 0.63 0.37
Missouri Indiana 0.46 0.54
Bethune-Cookman Florida State 0.00 1.00
Hawai'i Nevada 0.27 0.73
Louisiana-Lafayette Akron 0.53 0.47
San Jose State Minnesota 0.49 0.51
Idaho State Washington 0.28 0.72
Auburn LSU 0.00 1.00
Purdue Wisconsin 0.34 0.66
South Dakota State Nebraska 0.10 .90
Arkansas State Memphis 0.48 0.52
Utah State USC 0.51 0.49
Louisiana Tech Kansas 0.38 0.62
Texas State Texas Tech 0.18 0.82
Toledo Central Michigan 0.44 0.56
Pittsburgh Duke 0.64 0.36
North Texas Georgia 0.00 1.00
Wyoming Air Force 0.41 0.59
VMI Virginia 0.05 0.95
Troy Mississippi State 0.24 0.76
Wake Forest Army 0.44 0.56
West Virginia Maryland 0.43 0.57
Michigan State Notre Dame 0.31 0.69
Kansas State Texas 0.46 0.54
Jacksonville State Georgia State 0.28 0.72
New Mexico State UCLA 0.06 0.94
Savannah State Miami (Florida) 0.04 0.96

In This Article

Teams
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Football Study Hall

You must be a member of Football Study Hall to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Football Study Hall. You should read them.

Join Football Study Hall

You must be a member of Football Study Hall to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Football Study Hall. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker