College football F/+ picks: Week 4

Joshua S. Kelly-US PRESSWIRE

Picks and projections for Week 4 of the college football season.

In Week 3 of the college football season, the new and old methods of picking games met in the middle. Old was drastically better in Week 1, New went flying by in Week 2, and ... neither did much of anything in Week 3.

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 106-100-4 (51%)
    Old: 66-63-2 (51%)

With the old picks at least, there's generally been a "kill in Week 1, then regress as Vegas figures things out" trend. That's basically what we've seen here, but things have been hilariously unstable so far.

There is, however, this:

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    TOTAL: 44-27 (62%)

So that's exciting, especially since the two methods agree on 33 games this week. Perhaps that means a good week for both methods? Or perhaps it means that the first three weeks have been a mirage. Again, I'll never tell you to try to make money on these picks.

  • New Method, FBS vs. FCS Games
    Week 1: 17-13 (57%)
    Week 2: 23-9-2 (71%)
    Week 3: 5-10 (33%)
    TOTAL: 45-32-2 (58%)

One thing I've noticed with the New method is that it has remained pretty conservative in its ratings so far. Whereas last year finished with the top team (Alabama) at +51% and the bottom team (Colorado) at -36%, nobody's really separated themselves so far. No. 1 Oregon is only at +32%, and since the New Method predictions center around what eventually becomes a broader range of ratings, you'll see it still mostly taking the underdog in games with big spreads. That backfired last week, when FBS teams actually took advantage of FCS opponents for the most part (poor Temple aside), and it could backfire again this week. We'll see.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Clemson at NC State 14.5 Clemson by 6.0 (28.4 - 22.4) 68.2% NC State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Fri 9:00 PM ESPN Boise State at Fresno State -3 Boise State by 1.8 (29.4 - 27.6) 58.6% Boise State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Florida A&M at Ohio State -50 Ohio State by 31.6 (45.8 - 14.2) 100.0% Florida A&M
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Florida International at Louisville -42.5 Louisville by 33.4 (45.3 - 11.9) 100.0% Florida International
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Louisiana Tech at Kansas -10.5 Kansas by 0.4 (28.3 - 27.9) 55.2% Louisiana Tech
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Marshall at Virginia Tech -9 Virginia Tech by 14.9 (29.5 - 14.6) 84.7% Virginia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM CSS Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic 4 Florida Atlantic by 0.8 (19.8 - 19.0) 56.2% Florida Atlantic
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN North Carolina at Georgia Tech -7 Georgia Tech by 12.1 (36.9 - 24.8) 80.0% Georgia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 San Jose State at Minnesota -3.5 Minnesota by 3.3 (16.5 - 13.2) 62.2% San Jose State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Central Michigan 13 Toledo by 7.5 (37.4 - 29.9) 71.3% Central Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Vanderbilt at Massachusetts 32 Vanderbilt by 20.9 (38.9 - 18.0) 93.3% Massachusetts
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Wake Forest at Army 3 Wake Forest by 1.6 (26.3 - 24.7) 58.3% Army
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Western Michigan at Iowa -17 Iowa by 16.8 (28.9 - 12.1) 87.7% Western Michigan
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network North Texas at Georgia -33 Georgia by 23.3 (39.5 - 16.3) 96.0% North Texas
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Pittsburgh at Duke 4 Pittsburgh by 2.6 (33.6 - 31.0) 60.6% Duke
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Tulane at Syracuse -15 Syracuse by 13.7 (26.0 - 12.4) 82.8% Tulane
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Eastern Michigan 10.5 Ball State by 6.2 (31.9 - 25.6) 68.6% Eastern Michigan
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Jacksonville State at Georgia State 10.5 Jacksonville State by 4.7 (27.8 - 23.1) 65.2% Georgia State
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Austin Peay at Ohio -30 Ohio by 13.7 (31.4 - 17.7) 82.8% Austin Peay
Sat 3:00 PM $Ulive Northwestern State at UAB -16 UAB by 10.2 (28.9 - 18.7) 76.6% Northwestern State
Sat 3:00 PM Pac-12 Idaho State at Washington -49 Washington by 40.1 (48.5 - 8.4) 100.0% Idaho State
Sat 3:00 PM FSN Affiliates? Rice at Houston -3 Houston by 4.7 (28.4 - 23.7) 65.4% Houston
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Arkansas at Rutgers -1.5 Rutgers by 3.0 (29.0 - 26.0) 61.5% Rutgers
Sat 3:30 PM BTN South Dakota State at Nebraska -20.5 Nebraska by 12.1 (36.4 - 24.3) 80.0% South Dakota State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Murray State at Bowling Green -26 Bowling Green by 9.5 (34.4 - 24.9) 75.2% Murray State
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Maine at Northwestern -28 Northwestern by 17.2 (36.3 - 19.1) 88.3% Maine
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Kent State at Penn State -20.5 Penn State by 20.6 (36.6 - 16.0) 92.8% Penn State
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Michigan State at Notre Dame -7 Michigan State by 2.0 (11.1 - 9.1) 59.2% Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Purdue at Wisconsin -24 Wisconsin by 15.7 (32.9 - 17.2) 86.0% Purdue
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Tennessee at Florida -17 Florida by 19.1 (29.8 - 10.7) 90.8% Florida
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Utah State at USC -7 USC by 4.9 (12.3 - 7.4) 65.9% Utah State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 VMI at Virginia -43 Virginia by 28.1 (26.6 (- -1.5)) 100.0% VMI
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU West Virginia at Maryland -5 West Virginia by 2.4 (29.5 - 27.1) 60.1% West Virginia
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Cincinnati at Miami-OH 23 Cincinnati by 19.6 (26.6 - 6.9) 91.6% Miami-OH
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 UL-Monroe at Baylor -29 Baylor by 24.1 (45.1 - 21.0) 96.9% UL-Monroe
Sat 4:30 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Memphis 3.5 Arkansas State by 5.4 (34.0 - 28.6) 66.9% Arkansas State
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Bethune-Cookman at Florida State -40 Florida State by 28.2 (45.2 - 17.0) 100.0% Bethune-Cookman
Sat 6:00 PM (local) The Citadel at Old Dominion -17.5 Old Dominion by 4.6 (27.0 - 22.4) 65.2% The Citadel
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Lafayette at Akron 7 UL-Lafayette by 2.0 (31.6 - 29.6) 59.1% Akron
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Arizona State at Stanford -7.5 Stanford by 12.6 (53.9 - 41.3) 80.8% Stanford
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Colorado State at Alabama -40 Alabama by 30.5 (55.8 - 25.3) 100.0% Colorado State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois -14 Northern Illinois by 16.4 (40.1 - 23.7) 87.1% Northern Illinois
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Savannah State at Miami-FL -60 Miami-FL by 38.7 (39.6 - 1.0) 100.0% Savannah State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Morgan State at Western Kentucky -33 Western Kentucky by 23.2 (38.1 - 14.9) 95.9% Morgan State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU SMU at Texas A&M -29 Texas A&M by 18.0 (39.0 - 21.0) 89.3% SMU
Sat 7:00 PM FSN Affiliates? Texas State at Texas Tech -27 Texas Tech by 17.3 (29.4 - 12.1) 88.4% Texas State
Sat 7:30 PM CBSSN Oregon State at San Diego State 11 Oregon State by 10.8 (34.8 - 23.9) 77.7% San Diego State
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Troy at Mississippi State -14 Mississippi State by 10.1 (40.9 - 30.8) 76.4% Troy
Sat 7:45 PM ESPN Auburn at LSU -17.5 LSU by 15.0 (33.9 - 19.0) 84.8% Auburn
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Kansas State at Texas -5.5 Texas by 0.8 (36.0 - 35.1) 56.3% Kansas State
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Michigan at Connecticut 18 Michigan by 8.7 (27.8 - 19.1) 73.7% Connecticut
Sat 8:00 PM BTN Missouri at Indiana 2 Missouri by 1.0 (34.2 - 33.2) 56.8% Indiana
Sat 8:00 PM FCSA UTSA at UTEP 1.5 UTEP by 3.5 (37.3 - 33.8) 62.7% UTEP
Sat 8:05 PM MWC Video Hawaii at Nevada -10 Nevada by 3.2 (16.2 - 12.9) 62.0% Hawaii
Sat 9:00 PM Western Illinois at UNLV -12.5 UNLV by 12.4 (31.0 - 18.7) 80.5% Western Illinois
Sat 10:15 PM ESPN2 Utah at BYU -7 BYU by 5.5 (27.5 - 22.0) 67.1% Utah
Sat 10:15 PM ESPNU Wyoming at Air Force 4 Wyoming by 4.0 (35.8 - 31.8) 63.9% Wyoming
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 Idaho at Washington State -31 Washington State by 15.6 (31.9 - 16.3) 85.8% Idaho
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 New Mexico State at UCLA -42 UCLA by 30.3 (48.7 - 18.4) 100.0% New Mexico State

OLD METHOD

Games in bold are ones in which New and Old methods agree.

Day Time (ET) Game Spread Prediction Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM Clemson at NC State 14.5 Clemson by 9.0 NC State
Day Time (ET) Game Spread Prediction Pick Different?
Fri 9:00 PM Boise State at Fresno State -3 Boise State by 3.9 Boise State
Day Time (ET) Game Spread Prediction Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM Florida International at Louisville -42.5 Louisville by 46.2 Louisville XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Kansas -10.5 Louisiana Tech by 1.0 Louisiana Tech
Sat 12:00 PM Marshall at Virginia Tech -9 Virginia Tech by 17.1 Virginia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic 4 Middle Tennessee by 0.3 Florida Atlantic
Sat 12:00 PM North Carolina at Georgia Tech -7 Georgia Tech by 14.8 Georgia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM San Jose State at Minnesota -3.5 Minnesota by 3.5 San Jose State
Sat 12:00 PM Toledo at Central Michigan 13 Toledo by 12.5 Central Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM Vanderbilt at Massachusetts 32 Vanderbilt by 31.9 Massachusetts
Sat 12:00 PM Wake Forest at Army 3 Wake Forest by 3.7 Wake Forest XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Western Michigan at Iowa -17 Iowa by 22.6 Iowa XXX
Sat 12:21 PM North Texas at Georgia -33 Georgia by 32.5 North Texas
Sat 12:30 PM Pittsburgh at Duke 4 Pittsburgh by 5.1 Pittsburgh XXX
Sat 12:30 PM Tulane at Syracuse -15 Syracuse by 17.7 Syracuse XXX
Sat 1:00 PM Ball State at Eastern Michigan 10.5 Ball State by 10.2 Eastern Michigan
Sat 3:00 PM Rice at Houston -3 Houston by 6.0 Houston
Sat 3:30 PM Arkansas at Rutgers -1.5 Rutgers by 3.2 Rutgers
Sat 3:30 PM Kent State at Penn State -20.5 Penn State by 27.0 Penn State
Sat 3:30 PM Michigan State at Notre Dame -7 Michigan State by 4.3 Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM Purdue at Wisconsin -24 Wisconsin by 21.0 Purdue
Sat 3:30 PM Tennessee at Florida -17 Florida by 26.3 Florida
Sat 3:30 PM Utah State at USC -7 USC by 6.0 Utah State
Sat 3:30 PM West Virginia at Maryland -5 West Virginia by 3.4 West Virginia
Sat 4:00 PM Cincinnati at Miami-OH 23 Cincinnati by 30.8 Cincinnati XXX
Sat 4:00 PM UL-Monroe at Baylor -29 Baylor by 29.3 Baylor XXX
Sat 4:30 PM Arkansas State at Memphis 3.5 Arkansas State by 9.3 Arkansas State
Sat 6:00 PM UL-Lafayette at Akron 7 UL-Lafayette by 4.2 Akron
Sat 7:00 PM Arizona State at Stanford -7.5 Stanford by 15.8 Stanford
Sat 7:00 PM Colorado State at Alabama -40 Alabama by 46.6 Alabama XXX
Sat 7:00 PM SMU at Texas A&M -29 Texas A&M by 23.9 SMU
Sat 7:00 PM Texas State at Texas Tech -27 Texas Tech by 23.7 Texas State
Sat 7:30 PM Oregon State at San Diego State 11 Oregon State by 16.9 Oregon State XXX
Sat 7:30 PM Troy at Mississippi State -14 Mississippi State by 12.7 Troy
Sat 7:45 PM Auburn at LSU -17.5 LSU by 22.2 LSU XXX
Sat 8:00 PM Kansas State at Texas -5.5 Kansas State by 0.2 Kansas State
Sat 8:00 PM Michigan at Connecticut 18 Michigan by 14.8 Connecticut
Sat 8:00 PM Missouri at Indiana 2 Missouri by 2.8 Missouri XXX
Sat 8:00 PM UTSA at UTEP 1.5 UTEP by 3.7 UTEP
Sat 8:05 PM Hawaii at Nevada -10 Nevada by 2.8 Hawaii
Sat 10:15 PM Utah at BYU -7 BYU by 6.3 Utah
Sat 10:15 PM Wyoming at Air Force 4 Wyoming by 6.9 Wyoming
Sat 10:30 PM Idaho at Washington State -31 Washington State by 22.0 Idaho
Sat 10:30 PM New Mexico State at UCLA -42 UCLA by 41.4 New Mexico State

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