College football F/+ picks: Week 3

Tom Pennington

Picks and projections for Week 3 of the college football season.

So things took an interesting turn in Week 2.

Again, I'm using two different methods for picks this year. The old method is based on what is basically an anchored scale between the best team in the country (according to the F/+ rankings) and the worst; the new method is far more statistically sound but likely requires a larger sample and a few weeks of separation between the best and worst teams to become effective. Since I view the weekly picks post more as an experiment than a way for you to make money, this is basically an ongoing test.

In Week 1, old trumped new. In Week 2, the reverse happened. (Remember: New picks FBS vs .FCS games, too, and Old does not.)

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 78-70-2 (53%)
    Old: 46-40 (53%)

Actually, there are a couple more things I wanted to be tracking:

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    TOTAL: 28-19 (60%)
  • New Method, FBS vs. FCS Games
    Week 1: 17-13 (57%)
    Week 2: 23-9-2 (71%)
    TOTAL: 40-22-2 (64%)

Vegas sets lines that will get equal action on both sides, so I guess it would make sense that the lines will be artificially high in favor of the big team in FBS vs. FCS games -- the average bettor probably doesn't know much difference between a team like Illinois State and a team like Idaho State or probably assumes that there's still a difference between a bad FBS team and a good FCS when there's really not.

So keep that in mind as we move forward, I guess.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN TCU at Texas Tech 3 TCU by 3.6 (29.6 - 26.0) 63.0% TCU
Thu 7:30 PM ESPNU Troy at Arkansas State -8 Arkansas State by 8.7 (38.8 - 30.1) 73.7% Arkansas State
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Tulane at Louisiana Tech -7 Louisiana Tech by 11.9 (36.4 - 24.5) 79.7% Louisiana Tech
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN Air Force at Boise State -24 Boise State by 23.1 (45.7 - 22.6) 95.8% Air Force
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Akron at Michigan -37 Michigan by 31.8 (43.6 - 11.8) 100.0% Akron
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Bowling Green at Indiana -3 Bowling Green by 0.5 (36.1 - 35.5) 55.6% Bowling Green
Sat 12:00 PM RSPI Georgia State at West Virginia -40 West Virginia by 28.1 (39.9 - 11.8) 100.0% Georgia State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Louisville at Kentucky 14.5 Louisville by 14.8 (36.5 - 21.6) 84.6% Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Stanford at Army 29 Stanford by 26.7 (45.8 - 19.1) 99.3% Army
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Tulsa at Oklahoma -24.5 Oklahoma by 23.5 (27.4 - 4.0) 96.2% Tulsa
Sat 12:00 PM ABC UCLA at Nebraska -4.5 Nebraska by 6.7 (42.8 - 36.1) 69.6% Nebraska
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Virginia Tech at East Carolina 7.5 Virginia Tech by 8.3 (26.2 - 17.9) 72.9% Virginia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Western Illinois at Minnesota -24 Minnesota by 21.7 (34.0 - 12.4) 94.1% Western Illinois
Sat 12:21 PM ESPN3 Southern Miss at Arkansas -22.5 Arkansas by 14.9 (31.4 - 16.4) 84.8% Southern Miss
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 New Mexico at Pittsburgh -22 Pittsburgh by 17.9 (43.4 - 25.5) 89.2% New Mexico
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Wake Forest -3.5 Wake Forest by 1.8 (20.2 - 18.4) 58.7% UL-Monroe
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Rutgers -27.5 Rutgers by 18.9 (33.8 - 14.9) 90.7% Eastern Michigan
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Fordham at Temple -21 Temple by 12.4 (32.1 - 19.8) 80.5% Fordham
Sat 2:00 PM Pac-12 Fresno State at Colorado 10 Fresno State by 9.3 (31.3 - 22.0) 74.8% Colorado
Sat 2:00 PM BTN Youngstown State at Michigan State -25.5 Michigan State by 23.1 (14.3 - -8.8) 95.8% Youngstown State
Sat 3:00 PM Pac-12 Boston College at USC -14 USC by 12.9 (13.7 - 0.7) 81.5% Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Alabama at Texas A&M 8 Alabama by 7.6 (23.8 - 16.2) 71.5% Texas A&M
Sat 3:30 PM MWC Video Cal Poly-SLO at Colorado State -9.5 Cal Poly-SLO by 2.0 (22.6 - 20.5) 59.2% Cal Poly-SLO
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Delaware at Navy -16 Navy by 10.2 (37.6 - 27.4) 76.6% Delaware
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Georgia Tech at Duke 9 Georgia Tech by 10.2 (30.7 - 20.5) 76.5% Georgia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Nevada at Florida State -33.5 Florida State by 28.4 (56.2 - 27.9) 100.0% Nevada
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Stony Brook at Buffalo -13.5 Stony Brook by 3.5 (31.1 - 27.5) 62.7% Stony Brook
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Tennessee at Oregon -28 Oregon by 22.0 (44.8 - 22.7) 94.6% Tennessee
Sat 4:00 PM FSN affiliates? Ball State at North Texas 3 Ball State by 1.7 (29.8 - 28.2) 58.3% North Texas
Sat 4:00 PM Northern Colorado at Wyoming -26.5 Wyoming by 9.1 (34.9 - 25.9) 74.4% Northern Colorado
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Wagner at Syracuse -28 Syracuse by 15.3 (31.3 - 16.0) 85.3% Wagner
Sat 5:00 PM Northern Illinois at Idaho 28.5 Northern Illinois by 20.7 (36.9 - 16.2) 93.0% Idaho
Sat 6:00 PM Bethune-Cookman at Florida International 3 Bethune-Cookman by 5.6 (24.5 - 18.9) 67.3% Bethune-Cookman
Sat 6:00 PM BTN Central Florida at Penn State -6 Penn State by 4.2 (13.5 - 9.3) 64.2% Central Florida
Sat 6:00 PM Howard at Old Dominion Old Dominion by 18.2 (33.0 - 14.7) 89.7% Old Dominion
Sat 6:00 PM FS1 Iowa at Iowa State 2.5 Iowa by 3.2 (27.7 - 24.5) 61.9% Iowa
Sat 6:00 PM BTN Washington vs Illinois 10 Washington by 10.0 (35.0 - 25.0) 76.2% Illinois
Sat 6:30 PM Pac-12 Southern Utah at Washington State -21.5 Washington State by 6.1 (24.8 - 18.8) 68.3% Southern Utah
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Washington at Toledo -7.5 Toledo by 6.8 (29.6 - 22.8) 69.9% Eastern Washington
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Florida Atlantic at South Florida -13 South Florida by 13.8 (20.8 - 7.0) 82.9% South Florida
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Kent State at LSU -36.5 LSU by 26.8 (37.8 - 11.0) 99.5% Kent State
Sat 7:00 PM Massachusetts at Kansas State -39 Kansas State by 29.7 (41.1 - 11.4) 100.0% Massachusetts
Sat 7:00 PM CSS Memphis at Middle Tennessee -7.5 Middle Tennessee by 7.7 (26.5 - 18.8) 71.7% Middle Tennessee
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Mississippi State at Auburn -6 Auburn by 3.8 (23.4 - 19.6) 63.3% Mississippi State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Nicholls State at UL-Lafayette -26 UL-Lafayette by 15.5 (33.3 - 17.8) 85.6% Nicholls State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Northwestern State at Cincinnati -30.5 Cincinnati by 22.4 (38.5 - 16.1) 95.0% Northwestern State
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Ohio State at California 15.5 Ohio State by 14.7 (33.2 - 18.6) 84.4% California
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Vanderbilt at South Carolina -14 South Carolina by 10.3 (37.0 - 26.7) 76.7% Vanderbilt
Sat 7:30 PM CBSSN Kansas at Rice -7 Rice by 13.5 (37.5 - 24.0) 82.4% Rice
Sat 7:30 PM FSN affiliates? Lamar at Oklahoma State -47 Oklahoma State by 42.3 (48.9 - 6.7) 100.0% Lamar
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Maryland at Connecticut 7 Connecticut by 3.3 (24.2 - 20.9) 62.2% Connecticut
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Western Kentucky at South Alabama 10 Western Kentucky by 1.9 (30.9 - 29.0) 58.9% South Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN News Marshall at Ohio 8.5 Marshall by 3.5 (31.4 - 27.9) 62.6% Ohio
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Notre Dame at Purdue 21 Notre Dame by 15.0 (35.5 - 20.5) 84.9% Purdue
Sat 8:00 PM LHN Ole Miss at Texas -2.5 Texas by 6.0 (42.5 - 36.5) 68.2% Texas
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 UTEP at New Mexico State 5 UTEP by 2.5 (36.9 - 34.4) 60.4% New Mexico State
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 Weber State at Utah State -36 Utah State by 21.2 (37.8 - 16.6) 93.6% Weber State
Sat 9:00 PM BTN Western Michigan at Northwestern -30 Northwestern by 18.8 (38.2 - 19.3) 90.5% Western Michigan
Sat 10:00 PM MWC Video Central Michigan at UNLV -7 Central Michigan by 0.1 (25.2 - 25.1) 54.5% Central Michigan
Sat 10:00 PM FS1 Oregon State at Utah -3.5 Oregon State by 0.5 (38.0 - 37.5) 55.4% Oregon State
Sat 10:30 PM Pac-12 UTSA at Arizona -26 Arizona by 26.7 (40.2 - 13.5) 99.4% Arizona
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Wisconsin at Arizona State -6 Wisconsin by 3.5 (21.7 - 18.2) 62.6% Wisconsin

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM TCU at Texas Tech 3 TCU by 6.3 TCU
Thu 7:30 PM Troy at Arkansas State -8 Arkansas State by 9.9 Arkansas State
Thu 7:30 PM Tulane at Louisiana Tech -7 Louisiana Tech by 14.1 Louisiana Tech
Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Fri 8:00 PM Air Force at Boise State -24 Boise State by 30.0 Boise State XXX
Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 12:00 PM Akron at Michigan -37 Michigan by 43.2 Michigan XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Bowling Green at Indiana -3 Bowling Green by 2.1 Bowling Green
Sat 12:00 PM Georgia State at West Virginia -40 West Virginia by 36.3 Georgia State
Sat 12:00 PM Louisville at Kentucky 14.5 Louisville by 23.0 Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM Stanford at Army 29 Stanford by 37.9 Stanford XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Tulsa at Oklahoma -24.5 Oklahoma by 28.8 Oklahoma XXX
Sat 12:00 PM UCLA at Nebraska -4.5 Nebraska by 7.3 Nebraska
Sat 12:00 PM Virginia Tech at East Carolina 7.5 Virginia Tech by 12.6 Virginia Tech
Sat 12:21 PM Southern Miss at Arkansas -22.5 Arkansas by 20.6 Southern Miss
Sat 12:30 PM New Mexico at Pittsburgh -22 Pittsburgh by 24.4 Pittsburgh XXX
Sat 12:30 PM UL-Monroe at Wake Forest -3.5 Wake Forest by 1.2 UL-Monroe
Sat 1:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Rutgers -27.5 Rutgers by 28.0 Rutgers XXX
Sat 2:00 PM Fresno State at Colorado 10 Fresno State by 14.0 Fresno State XXX
Sat 3:00 PM Boston College at USC -14 USC by 18.2 USC XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Alabama at Texas A&M 8 Alabama by 12.1 Alabama XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Georgia Tech at Duke 9 Georgia Tech by 14.7 Georgia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Nevada at Florida State -33.5 Florida State by 35.5 Florida State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Tennessee at Oregon -28 Oregon by 26.4 Tennessee
Sat 4:00 PM Ball State at North Texas 3 Ball State by 3.5 Ball State XXX
Sat 5:00 PM Northern Illinois at Idaho 28.5 Northern Illinois by 30.7 Northern Illinois XXX
Sat 6:00 PM Central Florida at Penn State -6 Penn State by 4.4 Central Florida
Sat 6:00 PM Iowa at Iowa State 2.5 Iowa by 5.9 Iowa
Sat 6:00 PM Washington vs Illinois 10 Washington by 11.1 Washington XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at South Florida -13 South Florida by 18.4 South Florida
Sat 7:00 PM Kent State at LSU -36.5 LSU by 37.2 LSU XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Massachusetts at Kansas State -39 Kansas State by 41.6 Kansas State XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Memphis at Middle Tennessee -7.5 Middle Tennessee by 10.0 Middle Tennessee
Sat 7:00 PM Mississippi State at Auburn -6 Auburn by 4.7 Mississippi State
Sat 7:00 PM Ohio State at California 15.5 Ohio State by 22.1 Ohio State XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Vanderbilt at South Carolina -14 South Carolina by 13.8 Vanderbilt
Sat 7:30 PM Kansas at Rice -7 Rice by 15.9 Rice
Sat 7:30 PM Maryland at Connecticut 7 Connecticut by 3.6 Connecticut
Sat 7:30 PM Western Kentucky at South Alabama 10 Western Kentucky by 4.1 South Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM Marshall at Ohio 8.5 Marshall by 5.5 Ohio
Sat 8:00 PM Notre Dame at Purdue 21 Notre Dame by 22.1 Notre Dame XXX
Sat 8:00 PM Ole Miss at Texas -2.5 Texas by 7.0 Texas
Sat 8:00 PM UTEP at New Mexico State 5 UTEP by 5.1 UTEP XXX
Sat 9:00 PM Western Michigan at Northwestern -30 Northwestern by 23.3 Western Michigan
Sat 10:00 PM Central Michigan at UNLV -7 Central Michigan by 1.5 Central Michigan
Sat 10:00 PM Oregon State at Utah -3.5 Oregon State by 2.0 Oregon State
Sat 10:30 PM UTSA at Arizona -26 Arizona by 33.6 Arizona
Sat 10:30 PM Wisconsin at Arizona State -6 Wisconsin by 6.0 Wisconsin
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