HuskerMath's Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Model Predictions

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Although I, for one, welcomed our new FCS Overlords after Week 1, fewer upsets made for a better week of predictions.

Recap of Last Week's Predictions

Last week, despite an FCS-driven hostile takeover the FBS, the model correctly predicted 76% of games. This week was significantly better, with the model correctly predicting 82.5% of games.

Year to date, the model has correctly predicted 79.2% of games.

Updated Regular Season Expected Wins

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
UCF AAC 7.59 7.82 8.05 3%
Cincinnati AAC 8.29 8.40 7.66 -9%
Louisville AAC 7.41 8.16 7.60 -7%
Rutgers AAC 7.65 7.84 7.56 -4%
SMU AAC 6.54 5.05 5.87 16%
Houston AAC 5.21 6.86 5.83 -15%
Connecticut AAC 6.61 3.14 5.67 80%
Memphis AAC 5.55 5.18 5.27 2%
South Florida AAC 5.62 5.62 4.62 -18%
Temple AAC 5.48 4.94 4.43 -10%

On the strength of their scoring defense, UCF has climbed each of the last two weeks. The model is not impressed with Louisville, so it will be interesting to see whether the model or conventional wisdom holds true for the Cardinals this season. UConn rebounded somewhat after the model pummeled it for losing to Towson in Week 1.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
Florida State ACC 9.62 9.28 9.70 5%
Clemson ACC 8.00 7.23 8.58 19%
North Carolina State ACC 7.39 7.63 7.82 2%
North Carolina ACC 7.74 6.38 7.70 21%
Virginia Tech ACC 6.91 5.37 7.03 31%
Miami (Florida) ACC 6.04 6.95 6.95 0%
Pittsburgh ACC 6.83 5.08 6.56 29%
Georgia Tech ACC 6.69 8.64 6.48 -25%
Maryland ACC 5.53 7.34 6.27 -15%
Duke ACC 5.52 7.38 6.21 -16%
Syracuse ACC 6.83 5.71 6.09 7%
Virginia ACC 5.66 6.48 5.96 -8%
Boston College ACC 5.21 5.85 5.60 -4%
Wake Forest ACC 4.30 5.79 4.37 -25%

Florida State and Clemson have been the big winners for the last two weeks in the ACC. Miami, coming off the 'upset' of Florida last week didn't gain any ground, as the model still favors the 'Noles and Tigers.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
Oklahoma State Big 12 7.46 8.34 8.46 1%
Oklahoma Big 12 7.27 7.95 7.66 -4%
Kansas State Big 12 8.49 6.47 7.48 16%
Texas Tech Big 12 6.35 7.05 7.11 1%
TCU Big 12 6.92 5.61 6.67 19%
Baylor Big 12 6.68 8.16 6.65 -19%
Texas Big 12 6.60 7.57 6.38 -16%
West Virginia Big 12 6.31 6.01 5.52 -8%
Iowa State Big 12 6.25 4.98 5.32 7%
Kansas Big 12 3.98 3.85 4.64 20%

Texas took a beating this week, both on the field and in the model. K-State rebounded after the beating following its loss to NDSU. Kansas padded its stats enough to earn an extra win in the model at the expense of South Dakota State. The model likes Oklahoma State a lot, but the SI story may be enough of a distractor to divert the Cowboys' attention away long enough for the Sooners to take the top spot next week.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
Ohio State Big Ten 7.90 8.05 8.32 3%
Northwestern Big Ten 7.80 7.55 8.30 10%
Michigan Big Ten 7.20 7.09 8.13 15%
Michigan State Big Ten 7.41 8.47 8.08 -5%
Penn State Big Ten 7.79 6.99 8.01 15%
Wisconsin Big Ten 8.03 8.36 7.80 -7%
Nebraska Big Ten 7.62 7.44 7.38 -1%
Minnesota Big Ten 5.53 6.50 6.70 3%
Iowa Big Ten 5.88 5.33 5.47 3%
Purdue Big Ten 5.17 4.75 5.36 13%
Illinois Big Ten 4.41 5.19 5.35 3%
Indiana Big Ten 5.81 6.74 4.89 -27%

If we learned anything from Week 2 in the Big Ten, it's that Michigan is probably the team to beat in the Legends Division. With Notre Dame now at a 100% probability of victory in the model, Michigan's expected wins took a significant jump this week. Despite a powerful defense, and the extra weight that the model places on defense, Michigan State's offense remains so woeful that its expected win total dropped this week. Penn State was a big winner in expected wins this week, jumping more than a full game. Seven teams are within one expected win of each other. It may be the end of October before we have a clearer picture of who has the right stuff in the Big Ten this year.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
Oregon Pac 12 9.31 9.37 9.52 2%
Arizona State Pac 12 8.23 7.54 7.80 3%
Stanford Pac 12 7.29 7.03 7.67 9%
USC Pac 12 7.85 8.13 7.50 -8%
Washington Pac 12 6.70 7.43 7.30 -2%
Utah Pac 12 5.92 6.55 6.91 6%
UCLA Pac 12 6.76 7.26 6.87 -5%
Oregon State Pac 12 7.36 5.52 6.60 20%
Arizona Pac 12 6.25 7.04 6.51 -8%
California Pac 12 4.94 4.29 5.07 18%
Washington State Pac 12 4.53 4.45 4.95 11%
Colorado Pac 12 2.49 4.81 3.58 -26%

Nearly everyone else in the Pac-12 is an afterthought to the model, although Stanford will likely climb over the next few weeks, having played just one game this year so far. Reality returned to Boulder this week, as the expected wins for Colorado fell back more than 1.3 after nearly doubling last week after it beat CSU.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
Alabama SEC 9.97 9.27 9.95 7%
Texas A&M SEC 8.74 8.49 8.92 5%
LSU SEC 7.75 7.57 8.33 10%
Georgia SEC 8.14 6.09 8.10 33%
Florida SEC 7.96 7.97 7.78 -2%
South Carolina SEC 8.30 7.81 7.63 -2%
Vanderbilt SEC 8.16 6.19 7.36 19%
Mississippi SEC 6.53 6.99 7.08 1%
Mississippi State SEC 7.48 6.10 6.84 12%
Missouri SEC 5.64 6.95 6.15 -11%
Auburn SEC 4.95 6.33 5.94 -6%
Tennessee SEC 5.45 6.93 5.61 -19%
Arkansas SEC 5.01 6.47 5.58 -14%
Kentucky SEC 4.39 4.38 4.21 -4%

The top of the SEC chart will be settled on Saturday, when Alabama travels to A&M. In the meantime, Alabama remains the team to beat in the SEC (surprise, surprise, surprise!). Kentucky, to no one's surprise, continues its downward slide.

Team Conference Week 1 Total Pred Week 2 Total Pred Week 3 Total Pred Change from Last Week
Northern Illinois MAC 8.81 8.01 9.13 14%
Bowling Green MAC 7.71 8.27 8.83 7%
Fresno State MWC 8.44 7.45 8.53 15%
Utah State MWC 8.79 7.08 8.12 15%
Ohio MAC 8.00 5.66 7.86 39%
Boise State MWC 8.22 5.77 7.62 32%
Tulsa CUSA 7.66 5.48 7.61 39%
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7.13 7.06 7.56 7%
San Jose State MWC 8.26 7.99 7.54 -6%
Arkansas State Sun Belt 8.26 8.52 7.32 -14%
East Carolina CUSA 6.43 6.76 6.60 -2%
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 7.19 5.39 6.55 22%
Texas State Sun Belt 6.00 6.98 6.50 -7%
Kent State MAC 6.76 7.52 6.47 -14%
Ball State MAC 6.61 6.55 6.45 -2%
UTSA CUSA 5.77 6.36 6.45 1%
Troy Sun Belt 6.03 6.13 6.36 4%
Middle Tennessee CUSA 6.48 7.11 6.35 -11%
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 7.15 5.53 6.29 14%
Rice CUSA 5.90 6.86 6.17 -10%
North Texas CUSA 6.37 7.34 6.08 -17%
Toledo MAC 6.48 5.66 6.07 7%
Louisiana Tech CUSA 7.29 5.52 5.78 5%
San Diego State MWC 7.29 5.17 5.72 11%
Florida International CUSA 5.81 4.62 5.64 22%
Air Force MWC 6.03 7.23 5.63 -22%
Florida Atlantic CUSA 5.79 4.35 5.48 26%
Central Michigan MAC 5.66 6.49 5.36 -18%
New Mexico MWC 5.26 5.27 5.28 0%
Nevada MWC 6.02 6.48 5.27 -19%
South Alabama Sun Belt 5.05 4.96 5.19 5%
Buffalo MAC 5.32 5.51 5.18 -6%
Marshall CUSA 5.62 7.15 5.14 -28%
Western Michigan MAC 6.58 5.80 5.14 -11%
Wyoming MWC 5.37 5.41 5.08 -6%
Colorado State MWC 5.58 5.23 4.94 -5%
Akron MAC 4.85 4.83 4.87 1%
UTEP CUSA 4.85 4.22 4.61 9%
UAB CUSA 4.84 4.88 4.44 -9%
UNLV MWC 4.72 4.23 4.26 1%
Eastern Michigan MAC 3.70 5.37 4.01 -25%
Miami (Ohio) MAC 4.57 3.54 3.89 10%
Hawaii MWC 3.45 4.03 3.43 -15%
Tulane CUSA 3.72 5.88 3.39 -42%
Southern Mississippi CUSA 3.80 4.24 3.26 -23%
Georgia State Sun Belt 3.75 4.27 2.46 -42%
Massachusetts MAC 2.64 3.52 2.13 -40%

For the Non-AQ conferences, Northern Illinois remains the most likely to crash the BCS party this year. Fellow MAC member Bowling Green may have something to say about that though.

Week 3 Predictions

Predicted winner is in bold. Note that the model is reasonably confident of an A&M victory on Saturday. I won't fudge the predictions, but if there's a prediction this week that I'm uncomfortable with, it's this one. The Arizona State over Wisconsin prediction, though it is much closer, is another I'm not so sure about.

Visitor Home Visitor P(win) Home P(win)
Troy Arkansas State 0.25 0.75
Air Force Boise State 0.13 0.87
Akron Michigan 0.16 0.84
Alabama Texas A&M 0.43 0.57
Ball State North Texas 0.289 0.713
Bethune-Cookman Florida International 0.062 0.940
Boston College USC 0.36 0.64
Bowling Green Indiana 0.52 0.48
Cal Poly Colorado State 0.07 0.93
UCF Penn State 0.36 0.64
Central Michigan UNLV 0.41 0.59
Delaware Navy 0.02 0.98
Eastern Michigan Rutgers 0.12 0.88
Eastern Washington Toledo 0.20 .80
Florida Atlantic South Florida 0.31 0.69
Fordham Temple 0.06 0.94
Fresno State Colorado 0.87 0.13
Georgia State West Virginia 0.08 0.92
Georgia Tech Duke 0.69 0.31
Iowa Iowa State 0.44 0.56
Kansas Rice 0.32 0.68
Kent State LSU 0.29 0.71
Lamar Oklahoma State 0.00 1.00
Louisiana-Monroe Wake Forest 0.54 0.46
Louisville Kentucky 0.66 0.34
Marshall Ohio 0.34 0.66
Maryland Connecticut 0.33 0.67
Massachusetts Kansas State 0.07 0.93
Memphis Middle Tennessee 0.39 0.61
Mississippi Texas 0.53 0.47
Mississippi State Auburn 0.75 0.25
Nevada Florida State 0.12 0.87
New Mexico Pittsburgh 0.22 0.78
Nicholls State Louisiana-Lafayette 0.00 1.00
Northern Colorado Wyoming 0.07 0.93
Northern Illinois Idaho 0.82 0.18
Northwestern State Cincinnati 0.00 1.00
Notre Dame Purdue 0.69 0.31
Ohio State California 0.59 0.41
Oregon State Utah 0.48 0.52
Southern Mississippi Arkansas 0.26 0.74
Southern Utah Washington State 0.17 0.83
Stanford Army 0.72 0.28
Stony Brook Buffalo 0.05 0.95
Tennessee Oregon 0.14 0.86
TCU Texas Tech 0.55 0.45
UTEP New Mexico State 0.54 0.46
UTSA Arizona 0.34 0.66
Tulane Louisiana Tech 0.07 0.93
Tulsa Oklahoma 0.42 0.58
UCLA Nebraska 0.43 0.57
Vanderbilt South Carolina 0.38 0.62
Virginia Tech East Carolina 0.52 0.48
Wagner Syracuse 0.00 1.00
Washington Illinois 0.68 0.32
Weber State Utah State 0.01 0.99
Western Illinois Minnesota 0.03 0.97
Western Kentucky South Alabama 0.56 0.44
Western Michigan Northwestern 0.27 0.73
Wisconsin Arizona State 0.48 0.52
Youngstown State Michigan State 0.00 1.00

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