Apparent Talent, Team Quality & Coaching Effects: Part Deux

Andy Lyons

What happens when we include Rivals.com and the Sagarin Predictor in a study about coaching effects and the impact of coaching versus talent?

This is the follow up to the article I wrote for Football Study Hall that attempted to relate Team Quality (as measured by FO’s F/+ rating) to recruiting rankings. I chose to focus only on teams in the Automatic Qualifier "power" conferences, for a variety of reasons.

For the purposes of the initial analysis I utilized a simple four year arithmetic average of Scout.com’s average star ranking for each class, as of NSD. I chose to call the measure of recruiting rankings that I used Apparent Talent, because recruiting rankings are imperfect and subjective and also because I did not attempt to control for players that didn’t qualify, transfers, medical retirements, etc..

To summarize, Apparent Talent is a useful predictor of team quality, to a statistically significant degree, but it falls well short of being a truly robust predictive model. The reasons that it doesn’t do a great job of predicting team quality are myriad, but I have a strong hypothesis that is well supported by the data that an awful lot of the deviation between what could be expected based on Apparent Talent and what shows up on Saturdays in the Fall comes down to the impact of coaching staffs on the outcomes. I termed this Coaching Effect.

Some coaching staffs do a great job of taking the talent on hand and producing results well above what could reasonably be expected (i.e. what is predicted by linear regression). Other staffs do the complete opposite. A larger group does neither reliably, at least not to a statistically significant degree.

Refinement to the Analysis

Since the first article, I have downloaded and tabulated recruiting class ranks from a second source: Rivals.com. I re-ran the entire process using Rival’s rankings and compared them to the results from Scout’s. In aggregate, there was no difference worth discussing. The conclusion to draw there is that there isn’t a measurable difference in the "accuracy" of the two services rankings in aggregate, for the purposes of this analysis anyway. At the micro level, there were a few meaningful differences, so going forward I will use a composite of the two rankings to calculate Apparent Talent.

Year School 4YR Avg vs Avg Est. Actual ∆% Coach
2007 West Virginia 2.57 -12% 202.71 265.42 31% 2.61 Rodriguez
2007 Cincinnati 2.08 -29% 185.20 242.07 31% 2.59 B. Kelly
2012 Kansas State 2.37 -19% 195.42 253.72 30% 2.52 Snyder
2006 Louisville 2.48 -15% 199.33 258.51 30% 2.51 Petrino
2011 Alabama 3.70 27% 242.83 307.75 27% 2.26 Saban
2011 Oklahoma State 2.99 3% 217.73 275.80 27% 2.25 Gundy
2007 South Florida 2.36 -19% 195.11 245.88 26% 2.20 Leavitt
2006 West Virginia 2.43 -17% 197.68 245.76 24% 2.05 Rodriguez
2007 Kansas 2.39 -18% 196.40 244.10 24% 2.05 Mangino
2012 Alabama 3.72 28% 243.72 301.28 24% 2.00 Saban
2006 Rutgers 2.31 -21% 193.42 237.43 23% 1.92 Schiano
2009 Virginia Tech 2.90 -1% 214.35 262.99 23% 1.92 Beamer
2009 Iowa 2.61 -11% 204.04 250.20 23% 1.91 Ferentz
2011 LSU 3.61 24% 239.59 293.64 23% 1.91 Miles
2009 Cincinnati 2.27 -22% 192.17 235.08 22% 1.89 B. Kelly
2010 Stanford 3.03 4% 219.06 266.35 22% 1.82 Harbaugh
2007 Missouri 2.60 -11% 203.77 247.66 22% 1.82 Pinkel
2011 Wisconsin 2.87 -2% 213.24 258.56 21% 1.80 Bielema
2008 Florida 3.82 31% 246.97 298.74 21% 1.77 Meyer
2010 Auburn 3.22 11% 225.95 272.94 21% 1.76 Chizik
2012 Oregon 3.32 14% 229.24 276.60 21% 1.75 C. Kelly
2012 Texas A&M 3.17 9% 223.99 270.18 21% 1.74 Sumlin
2010 Arkansas 2.89 -1% 214.04 257.06 20% 1.70 Petrino
2007 Kentucky 2.31 -21% 193.29 231.63 20% 1.68 Brooks
2007 Connecticut 2.08 -29% 185.11 221.49 20% 1.66 Edsall
2009 Alabama 3.52 21% 236.35 282.37 19% 1.65 Saban
2007 Oregon 2.89 -1% 214.04 255.63 19% 1.64 Bellotti
2008 Cincinnati 2.17 -26% 188.35 224.33 19% 1.61 B. Kelly
2008 Penn State 3.26 12% 227.37 268.08 18% 1.51 Paterno
2008 Connecticut 2.20 -24% 189.60 223.32 18% 1.50 Edsall
2011 Oregon 3.28 13% 228.08 267.53 17% 1.46 C. Kelly
2007 Virginia Tech 2.88 -1% 213.68 250.14 17% 1.44 Beamer
2006 Cincinnati 2.04 -30% 183.82 215.05 17% 1.44 B. Kelly
2008 Ole Miss 2.88 -1% 213.77 249.95 17% 1.43 Nutt
2009 Connecticut 2.23 -23% 190.62 222.81 17% 1.43 Edsall
2010 Wisconsin 2.87 -2% 213.24 249.23 17% 1.43 Bielema
2010 Alabama 3.53 21% 236.75 274.94 16% 1.36 Saban
2012 Oregon State 2.69 -8% 206.97 239.92 16% 1.34 Riley
2010 Virginia Tech 2.98 2% 217.10 250.58 15% 1.30 Beamer
2008 USC 4.07 39% 255.85 295.19 15% 1.30 Carroll
2006 Wisconsin 2.61 -10% 204.13 235.41 15% 1.29 Bielema
2008 Wake Forest 2.33 -20% 194.17 223.80 15% 1.29 Grobe
2009 Oregon State 2.57 -12% 202.57 233.40 15% 1.29 Riley
2010 Missouri 2.90 0% 214.44 246.58 15% 1.27 Pinkel
2008 Missouri 2.73 -6% 208.26 239.44 15% 1.26 Pinkel
2012 Oklahoma State 3.01 3% 218.22 250.52 15% 1.25 Gundy
2008 Texas Tech 2.79 -4% 210.39 241.45 15% 1.25 Leach
2008 Oklahoma 3.52 21% 236.35 270.83 15% 1.23 B. Stoops
2011 Stanford 3.18 9% 224.26 256.94 15% 1.23 Shaw
2011 Michigan State 2.95 1% 216.08 247.57 15% 1.23 Dantonio
2010 Oklahoma State 3.01 3% 218.17 249.64 14% 1.22 Gundy
2008 Iowa 2.83 -3% 211.90 242.22 14% 1.21 Ferentz
2010 Iowa 2.67 -8% 206.26 235.45 14% 1.20 Ferentz
2007 Oregon State 2.48 -15% 199.33 227.49 14% 1.19 Riley
2011 Cincinnati 2.49 -15% 199.91 228.14 14% 1.19 B. Jones
2006 Wake Forest 2.29 -21% 192.80 219.89 14% 1.19 Grobe
2006 Boston College 2.67 -8% 206.22 235.17 14% 1.19 O'Brien
2009 Penn State 3.30 13% 228.52 260.55 14% 1.18 Paterno
2006 South Florida 2.25 -23% 191.24 217.80 14% 1.17 Leavitt
2006 Arkansas 2.73 -6% 208.53 237.36 14% 1.17 Nutt
2009 Wisconsin 2.82 -3% 211.50 240.09 14% 1.14 Bielema
2007 Boston College 2.66 -9% 205.73 232.94 13% 1.12 Jagodzinski
2009 Texas 3.73 28% 243.77 275.74 13% 1.11 Brown
2009 Florida 3.89 33% 249.54 281.55 13% 1.08 Meyer
2007 Clemson 2.95 1% 216.13 243.72 13% 1.08 T. Bowden
2006 Georgia Tech 2.51 -14% 200.57 225.96 13% 1.07 Gailey
2007 Ohio State 3.53 21% 236.97 266.89 13% 1.07 Tressel
2007 Rutgers 2.43 -17% 197.60 222.41 13% 1.06 Schiano
2010 Oregon 3.20 10% 224.93 253.04 12% 1.06 C. Kelly
2009 Nebraska 3.15 8% 223.15 251.02 12% 1.06 Pellini
2006 Virginia Tech 2.86 -2% 212.97 239.50 12% 1.05 Beamer
2008 Texas 3.70 27% 242.83 273.01 12% 1.05 Brown
2012 Cincinnati 2.62 -10% 204.39 228.71 12% 1.01 B. Jones
2012 Wisconsin 2.93 1% 215.50 240.76 12% 0.99 Bielema
2010 NC State 2.77 -5% 209.95 234.32 12% 0.98 O'Brien
2009 Texas Tech 2.85 -2% 212.62 237.25 12% 0.98 Leach
2007 Illinois 2.69 -8% 206.97 230.83 12% 0.97 Zook
2012 Syracuse 2.43 -17% 197.73 220.49 12% 0.97 Marrone
2007 LSU 3.63 24% 240.21 267.44 11% 0.96 Miles
2011 Arkansas 2.93 1% 215.64 239.71 11% 0.94 Petrino
2008 Alabama 3.31 14% 229.15 254.68 11% 0.94 Saban
2008 South Florida 2.42 -17% 197.20 218.90 11% 0.93 Leavitt
2007 Wake Forest 2.27 -22% 191.95 212.92 11% 0.92 Grobe
2010 West Virginia 2.95 1% 216.35 239.71 11% 0.91 Stewart
2012 South Carolina 3.15 8% 223.33 247.39 11% 0.91 Spurrier
2007 Arizona State 2.78 -5% 210.04 232.48 11% 0.90 Erickson
2006 LSU 3.57 23% 238.39 263.76 11% 0.90 Miles
2011 Kansas State 2.58 -11% 203.06 224.40 11% 0.89 Snyder
2010 Ohio State 3.70 27% 243.01 267.86 10% 0.86 Tressel
2008 Oregon State 2.56 -12% 202.39 223.01 10% 0.86 Riley
2007 Arkansas 2.77 -5% 209.77 230.74 10% 0.84 Nutt
2012 Michigan State 3.04 4% 219.55 241.37 10% 0.84 Dantonio
2009 Boston College 2.62 -10% 204.57 224.90 10% 0.84 Spaziani
2009 Oregon 3.02 4% 218.84 240.31 10% 0.83 C. Kelly
2006 Clemson 2.86 -2% 213.02 233.89 10% 0.83 T. Bowden
2012 Florida 3.75 29% 244.48 268.32 10% 0.82 Muschamp
2007 Texas Tech 2.71 -7% 207.77 227.93 10% 0.82 Leach
2006 Oregon State 2.45 -16% 198.35 217.55 10% 0.82 Riley
2008 Boston College 2.68 -8% 206.48 226.27 10% 0.81 Jagodzinski
2011 Baylor 2.69 -8% 207.06 226.90 10% 0.81 Briles
2007 Auburn 3.08 6% 220.70 241.67 10% 0.80 Tuberville
2006 Ohio State 3.46 19% 234.21 256.04 9% 0.79 Tressel
2008 Rutgers 2.54 -13% 201.51 220.07 9% 0.78 Schiano
2010 South Carolina 3.15 8% 223.37 243.90 9% 0.78 Spurrier
2006 Florida 3.64 25% 240.61 262.53 9% 0.77 Meyer
2009 Wake Forest 2.39 -18% 196.44 214.16 9% 0.76 Grobe
2011 Michigan 3.40 17% 232.26 252.79 9% 0.75 Hoke
2006 Missouri 2.60 -11% 203.73 221.55 9% 0.74 Pinkel
2011 Texas A&M 3.13 7% 222.66 242.06 9% 0.74 Sherman
2012 Stanford 3.37 16% 231.15 251.14 9% 0.73 Shaw
2010 Michigan State 2.82 -3% 211.59 229.54 8% 0.72 Dantonio
2007 Oklahoma 3.47 19% 234.66 254.55 8% 0.72 B. Stoops
2012 Louisville 2.77 -5% 209.77 227.45 8% 0.71 Strong
2010 Nebraska 3.11 7% 222.04 240.63 8% 0.71 Pellini
2008 Oklahoma State 2.90 0% 214.48 232.41 8% 0.71 Gundy
2012 Notre Dame 3.49 20% 235.28 254.87 8% 0.70 B. Kelly
2011 West Virginia 2.90 0% 214.57 232.35 8% 0.70 Holgorsen
2006 South Carolina 2.85 -2% 212.66 230.10 8% 0.69 Spurrier
2012 Northwestern 2.74 -6% 208.79 225.85 8% 0.69 Fitzgerald
2010 Oklahoma 3.55 22% 237.50 256.83 8% 0.69 B. Stoops
2009 Oklahoma 3.49 20% 235.37 254.52 8% 0.69 B. Stoops
2009 Pittsburgh 3.18 9% 224.21 241.91 8% 0.67 Wannstedt
2008 West Virginia 2.66 -9% 205.77 221.99 8% 0.67 Stewart
2012 Georgia 3.61 24% 239.55 258.20 8% 0.66 Richt
2009 Georgia Tech 2.91 0% 214.93 231.64 8% 0.66 P. Johnson
2012 Florida State 3.64 25% 240.61 259.04 8% 0.65 Fisher
2009 Purdue 2.43 -17% 197.77 212.67 8% 0.64 Hope
2011 Vanderbilt 2.51 -14% 200.57 215.49 7% 0.63 Franklin
2008 North Carolina 2.90 0% 214.53 230.43 7% 0.63 B. Davis
2009 Arkansas 2.88 -1% 213.68 228.93 7% 0.60 Petrino
2009 Ole Miss 3.01 3% 218.30 233.84 7% 0.60 Nutt
2008 Vanderbilt 2.22 -24% 190.31 203.59 7% 0.59 Bo. Johnson
2008 Northwestern 2.39 -18% 196.35 210.04 7% 0.59 Fitzgerald
2012 Oklahoma 3.57 22% 238.17 253.94 7% 0.56 B. Stoops
2012 Baylor 2.81 -4% 211.15 225.01 7% 0.55 Briles
2008 Oregon 3.00 3% 217.82 232.06 7% 0.55 Bellotti
2008 Pittsburgh 3.03 4% 219.19 233.25 6% 0.54 Wannstedt
2010 Texas A&M 3.16 8% 223.50 237.67 6% 0.54 Sherman
2011 Rutgers 2.80 -4% 210.88 224.23 6% 0.53 Schiano
2006 Auburn 3.04 4% 219.46 233.08 6% 0.52 Tuberville
2012 Nebraska 3.22 11% 225.86 239.79 6% 0.52 Pellini
2007 Florida 3.73 28% 244.08 258.92 6% 0.51 Meyer
2011 Oklahoma 3.65 25% 241.06 255.39 6% 0.50 B. Stoops
2006 Kentucky 2.34 -20% 194.66 206.06 6% 0.49 Brooks
2012 LSU 3.57 23% 238.26 251.89 6% 0.48 Miles
2007 Louisville 2.67 -8% 206.31 218.06 6% 0.48 Kragthorpe
2011 Missouri 2.98 2% 217.15 229.07 5% 0.46 Pinkel
2011 Florida State 3.49 20% 235.55 248.30 5% 0.46 Fisher
2006 California 3.11 7% 221.77 233.50 5% 0.45 Tedford
2007 Mississippi State 2.47 -15% 199.28 209.75 5% 0.44 Croom
2007 Michigan State 2.66 -9% 206.04 216.74 5% 0.44 Dantonio
2006 Tennessee 3.32 14% 229.24 241.00 5% 0.43 Fulmer
2012 TCU 2.89 -1% 213.99 224.65 5% 0.42 Patterson
2006 Vanderbilt 2.15 -26% 187.73 197.05 5% 0.42 Bo. Johnson
2011 South Florida 2.73 -6% 208.44 218.78 5% 0.42 S. Holtz
2010 Mississippi State 2.81 -4% 211.28 221.75 5% 0.42 Mullen
2010 Cincinnati 2.34 -20% 194.35 203.95 5% 0.42 B. Jones
2009 Stanford 2.87 -1% 213.50 223.82 5% 0.41 Harbaugh
2006 Oklahoma State 2.74 -6% 208.79 218.61 5% 0.40 Gundy
2007 Wisconsin 2.68 -8% 206.53 216.13 5% 0.39 Bielema
2011 Virginia Tech 3.00 3% 218.08 228.00 5% 0.38 Beamer
2009 Northwestern 2.41 -17% 197.06 206.02 5% 0.38 Fitzgerald
2012 Arizona 2.78 -5% 210.26 219.59 4% 0.37 Rodriguez
2011 South Carolina 3.11 7% 221.77 231.51 4% 0.37 Spurrier
2009 Ohio State 3.76 29% 244.83 255.56 4% 0.37 Tressel
2009 Clemson 3.35 15% 230.44 240.49 4% 0.37 Swinney
2008 Michigan State 2.62 -10% 204.35 213.00 4% 0.36 Dantonio
2011 Connecticut 2.34 -20% 194.48 202.72 4% 0.36 Pasqualoni
2007 Georgia 3.56 22% 237.77 247.55 4% 0.35 Richt
2006 Pittsburgh 2.61 -10% 204.13 212.50 4% 0.35 Wannstedt
2010 Illinois 2.84 -3% 212.17 220.76 4% 0.34 Zook
2006 Minnesota 2.37 -19% 195.73 203.23 4% 0.32 Mason
2007 UCLA 3.09 6% 221.15 229.48 4% 0.32 Dorrell
2006 Nebraska 2.97 2% 216.97 225.14 4% 0.32 Callahan
2008 Kansas 2.60 -11% 203.59 211.05 4% 0.31 Mangino
2011 Notre Dame 3.57 23% 238.30 246.90 4% 0.30 B. Kelly
2010 South Florida 2.68 -8% 206.53 213.84 4% 0.30 S. Holtz
2007 USC 4.11 41% 257.28 266.21 3% 0.29 Carroll
2006 Michigan 3.60 24% 239.37 247.44 3% 0.28 Carr
2010 Pittsburgh 3.17 9% 223.95 231.00 3% 0.27 Wannstedt
2008 Arizona 3.11 7% 221.77 228.66 3% 0.26 M. Stoops
2008 Ohio State 3.71 27% 243.32 250.28 3% 0.24 Tressel
2006 Kansas 2.43 -17% 197.73 203.35 3% 0.24 Mangino
2012 Michigan 3.40 17% 232.12 238.70 3% 0.24 Hoke
2008 Virginia Tech 2.92 0% 214.97 221.03 3% 0.24 Beamer
2010 Florida State 3.38 16% 231.50 237.94 3% 0.24 Fisher
2006 Texas Tech 2.74 -6% 208.79 214.60 3% 0.23 Leach
2012 Arizona State 2.84 -2% 212.44 218.07 3% 0.22 Graham
2009 Arizona 2.99 3% 217.68 223.45 3% 0.22 M. Stoops
2012 Iowa State 2.47 -15% 199.11 204.38 3% 0.22 Rhoads
2012 Clemson 3.36 15% 230.70 236.72 3% 0.22 Swinney
2009 Oklahoma State 2.99 3% 217.73 223.31 3% 0.22 Gundy
2010 Connecticut 2.28 -22% 192.40 197.24 3% 0.21 Edsall
2012 Ohio State 3.62 24% 240.03 245.87 2% 0.21 Meyer
2007 Indiana 2.14 -26% 187.55 192.00 2% 0.20 Lynch
2007 Arizona 2.93 0% 215.37 220.45 2% 0.20 M. Stoops
2008 Georgia Tech 2.80 -4% 210.71 215.67 2% 0.20 P. Johnson
2012 Penn State 3.19 9% 224.75 229.93 2% 0.19 O'Brien
2012 Vanderbilt 2.71 -7% 207.55 212.19 2% 0.19 Franklin
2011 Georgia 3.63 25% 240.52 245.54 2% 0.18 Richt
2010 Louisville 2.70 -7% 207.33 211.35 2% 0.16 Strong
2012 Rutgers 2.92 0% 215.15 219.28 2% 0.16 Flood
2006 USC 3.90 34% 249.81 254.59 2% 0.16 Carroll
2010 Maryland 2.88 -1% 213.86 217.86 2% 0.16 Friedgen
2007 Oklahoma State 2.83 -3% 211.90 215.79 2% 0.16 Gundy
2009 Michigan State 2.69 -8% 207.11 210.87 2% 0.15 Dantonio
2007 Tennessee 3.41 17% 232.44 236.54 2% 0.15 Fulmer
2012 Connecticut 2.40 -18% 196.53 199.93 2% 0.15 Pasqualoni
2010 Miami-FL 3.33 14% 229.81 233.53 2% 0.14 Shannon
2007 California 3.19 10% 224.79 228.41 2% 0.14 Tedford
2011 Louisville 2.70 -7% 207.37 210.69 2% 0.14 Strong
2009 Kentucky 2.52 -13% 201.02 204.15 2% 0.13 Brooks
2011 Iowa 2.71 -7% 207.51 210.59 1% 0.13 Ferentz
2007 South Carolina 2.94 1% 215.95 219.00 1% 0.12 Spurrier
2009 Miami-FL 3.41 17% 232.48 235.59 1% 0.11 Shannon
2006 Washington State 2.56 -12% 202.35 205.04 1% 0.11 Doba
2007 Georgia Tech 2.68 -8% 206.62 209.02 1% 0.10 Gailey
2010 Oregon State 2.62 -10% 204.39 206.74 1% 0.10 Riley
2011 Nebraska 3.16 8% 223.50 225.98 1% 0.09 Pellini
2007 Vanderbilt 2.21 -24% 189.73 191.55 1% 0.08 Bo. Johnson
2007 Virginia 2.82 -3% 211.50 213.47 1% 0.08 Groh
2008 Clemson 3.22 11% 225.81 227.81 1% 0.07 Swinney
2006 Oregon 2.78 -5% 210.13 211.81 1% 0.07 Bellotti
2006 Oklahoma 3.55 22% 237.55 239.43 1% 0.07 B. Stoops
2006 Arizona State 2.82 -3% 211.68 212.98 1% 0.05 Koetter
2010 Kentucky 2.56 -12% 202.35 203.47 1% 0.05 Phillips
2009 West Virginia 2.80 -4% 210.84 211.99 1% 0.05 Stewart
2007 Washington 2.74 -6% 208.57 209.48 0% 0.04 Willingham
2009 North Carolina 3.10 6% 221.41 222.34 0% 0.04 B. Davis
2006 Texas A&M 3.05 5% 219.81 220.62 0% 0.03 Franchione
2007 Penn State 3.23 11% 225.99 226.80 0% 0.03 Paterno
2010 Arizona 2.89 -1% 213.99 214.75 0% 0.03 M. Stoops
2010 LSU 3.67 26% 241.86 242.04 0% 0.01 Miles
2008 California 3.26 12% 227.33 227.10 0% (0.01) Tedford
2009 Kansas 2.70 -7% 207.24 206.91 0% (0.01) Mangino
2009 Tennessee 3.32 14% 229.50 229.06 0% (0.02) Kiffen
2006 Notre Dame 3.25 11% 226.70 226.21 0% (0.02) Weis
2007 Alabama 3.08 6% 220.84 220.36 0% (0.02) Saban
2011 USC 3.85 32% 248.03 247.36 0% (0.02) Kiffen
2006 UCLA 2.94 1% 215.73 215.14 0% (0.02) Dorrell
2010 Kansas State 2.56 -12% 202.35 201.46 0% (0.04) Snyder
2011 Georgia Tech 2.90 0% 214.48 213.54 0% (0.04) P. Johnson
2008 NC State 2.69 -8% 206.88 205.94 0% (0.04) O'Brien
2012 Ole Miss 3.07 5% 220.35 219.28 0% (0.04) Freeze
2007 Pittsburgh 2.77 -5% 209.77 208.75 0% (0.04) Wannstedt
2010 Syracuse 2.39 -18% 196.31 195.24 -1% (0.05) Marrone
2010 Boston College 2.66 -9% 205.99 204.75 -1% (0.05) Spaziani
2007 Maryland 2.84 -2% 212.39 211.01 -1% (0.06) Friedgen
2008 Baylor 2.36 -19% 195.24 193.84 -1% (0.06) Briles
2010 Clemson 3.32 14% 229.32 227.66 -1% (0.06) Swinney
2007 Colorado 2.59 -11% 203.28 201.63 -1% (0.07) Hawkins
2010 Notre Dame 3.62 24% 239.86 237.63 -1% (0.08) B. Kelly
2009 Missouri 2.73 -6% 208.44 206.50 -1% (0.08) Pinkel
2006 Alabama 2.96 2% 216.62 214.46 -1% (0.08) Shula
2006 Connecticut 2.03 -30% 183.64 181.51 -1% (0.10) Edsall
2008 Wisconsin 2.77 -5% 209.91 207.41 -1% (0.10) Bielema
2009 South Florida 2.59 -11% 203.33 200.80 -1% (0.10) Leavitt
2007 Kansas State 2.56 -12% 202.39 199.66 -1% (0.11) Prince
2011 Miami-FL 3.17 9% 224.17 221.03 -1% (0.12) Golden
2011 Syracuse 2.39 -18% 196.22 193.43 -1% (0.12) Marrone
2006 Iowa 2.76 -5% 209.51 206.48 -1% (0.12) Ferentz
2012 Virginia Tech 3.01 3% 218.48 215.14 -2% (0.13) Beamer
2012 Texas Tech 2.98 2% 217.28 213.77 -2% (0.14) Tuberville
2012 West Virginia 2.97 2% 216.75 213.18 -2% (0.14) Holgorsen
2012 Georgia Tech 2.94 1% 215.95 212.28 -2% (0.14) P. Johnson
2009 South Carolina 3.15 8% 223.37 219.49 -2% (0.15) Spurrier
2012 UCLA 3.25 12% 226.97 222.44 -2% (0.17) Mora
2011 Arizona State 2.93 1% 215.59 211.28 -2% (0.17) Erickson
2007 Purdue 2.64 -9% 205.15 200.98 -2% (0.17) Tiller
2008 Florida State 3.44 18% 233.68 228.80 -2% (0.18) B. Bowden
2007 Texas 3.64 25% 240.57 235.52 -2% (0.18) Brown
2010 Arizona State 2.97 2% 216.93 212.30 -2% (0.18) Erickson
2011 Mississippi State 2.87 -1% 213.46 208.84 -2% (0.18) Mullen
2006 Texas 3.56 22% 237.99 232.83 -2% (0.18) Brown
2011 Iowa State 2.42 -17% 197.28 192.87 -2% (0.19) Rhoads
2008 Illinois 2.86 -2% 213.15 208.16 -2% (0.20) Zook
2011 Wake Forest 2.56 -12% 202.17 197.34 -2% (0.20) Grobe
2011 Northwestern 2.64 -9% 205.15 199.81 -3% (0.22) Fitzgerald
2011 Illinois 2.76 -5% 209.55 204.00 -3% (0.22) Zook
2006 Northwestern 2.24 -23% 191.02 185.89 -3% (0.23) Fitzgerald
2006 Georgia 3.51 20% 236.04 229.57 -3% (0.23) Richt
2012 Pittsburgh 3.00 3% 218.04 212.05 -3% (0.23) Chryst
2006 Penn State 3.18 9% 224.44 218.15 -3% (0.24) Paterno
2009 Auburn 3.23 11% 226.13 219.63 -3% (0.24) Chizik
2007 Washington State 2.56 -12% 202.35 196.00 -3% (0.27) Doba
2011 Penn State 3.29 13% 228.30 221.08 -3% (0.27) Paterno/Bradley
2008 Maryland 2.85 -2% 212.66 205.86 -3% (0.27) Friedgen
2008 Nebraska 3.18 9% 224.53 217.32 -3% (0.27) Pellini
2006 Temple 2.10 -28% 186.04 179.92 -3% (0.28) Addazio
2008 Kentucky 2.38 -18% 196.04 189.37 -3% (0.29) Brooks
2011 Virginia 2.71 -7% 207.55 200.47 -3% (0.29) London
2008 South Carolina 3.07 5% 220.30 212.66 -3% (0.29) Spurrier
2006 Maryland 2.89 -1% 213.95 206.17 -4% (0.31) Friedgen
2008 Georgia 3.62 24% 239.90 231.10 -4% (0.31) Richt
2009 Mississippi State 2.77 -5% 209.82 201.99 -4% (0.32) Mullen
2006 Syracuse 2.30 -21% 193.11 185.61 -4% (0.33) Robinson
2012 North Carolina 3.13 7% 222.53 213.59 -4% (0.34) Fedora
2009 Rutgers 2.71 -7% 207.82 199.38 -4% (0.34) Schiano
2009 Duke 2.43 -17% 197.60 189.54 -4% (0.34) Cutcliffe
2011 Pittsburgh 3.04 4% 219.33 210.06 -4% (0.36) Graham
2011 Clemson 3.35 15% 230.35 220.49 -4% (0.36) Swinney
2011 Utah 2.82 -3% 211.68 202.47 -4% (0.37) Whittingham
2007 Michigan 3.56 22% 237.99 227.34 -4% (0.38) Carr
2008 Stanford 2.75 -6% 209.11 199.71 -4% (0.38) Harbaugh
2012 NC State 2.75 -6% 209.15 199.54 -5% (0.39) O'Brien
2006 Kansas State 2.71 -7% 207.82 198.25 -5% (0.39) Prince
2010 North Carolina 3.18 9% 224.39 214.03 -5% (0.39) B. Davis
2006 Indiana 2.14 -26% 187.51 178.40 -5% (0.41) Hoeppner
2008 Virginia 2.73 -6% 208.44 198.02 -5% (0.42) Groh
2008 Duke 2.41 -17% 196.88 187.01 -5% (0.42) Cutcliffe
2009 Notre Dame 3.68 26% 242.12 229.98 -5% (0.42) Weis
2006 Arizona 2.87 -1% 213.42 202.57 -5% (0.43) M. Stoops
2011 NC State 2.81 -4% 211.24 200.46 -5% (0.43) O'Brien
2010 Baylor 2.58 -12% 203.02 192.56 -5% (0.44) Briles
2010 Texas Tech 2.85 -2% 212.62 201.42 -5% (0.44) Tuberville
2009 Iowa State 2.34 -20% 194.35 183.83 -5% (0.46) Rhoads
2008 LSU 3.65 25% 240.92 227.79 -5% (0.46) Miles
2006 Colorado 2.66 -9% 205.73 194.36 -6% (0.47) Hawkins
2009 Texas A&M 3.14 8% 222.79 210.17 -6% (0.48) Sherman
2009 Florida State 3.37 16% 231.06 217.94 -6% (0.48) B. Bowden
2006 Washington 2.76 -5% 209.46 197.52 -6% (0.48) Willingham
2009 LSU 3.67 26% 241.81 227.48 -6% (0.50) Miles
2006 Baylor 2.23 -24% 190.49 179.08 -6% (0.51) Morriss
2011 North Carolina 3.21 10% 225.46 211.83 -6% (0.51) Withers
2008 Purdue 2.57 -12% 202.66 190.19 -6% (0.52) Tiller
2007 Stanford 2.66 -9% 206.04 193.27 -6% (0.52) Harbaugh
2012 Washington 2.98 2% 217.24 203.54 -6% (0.53) Sarkisian
2011 California 3.24 11% 226.66 212.37 -6% (0.53) Tedford
2009 Vanderbilt 2.33 -20% 194.22 181.70 -6% (0.54) Bo. Johnson
2012 Texas 3.82 31% 247.19 231.23 -6% (0.55) Brown
2007 NC State 2.70 -7% 207.19 193.72 -7% (0.55) O'Brien
2006 Illinois 2.60 -11% 203.59 190.13 -7% (0.56) Zook
2009 Arizona State 2.96 2% 216.57 202.22 -7% (0.56) Erickson
2007 North Carolina 2.75 -6% 209.15 195.18 -7% (0.56) B. Davis
2009 NC State 2.65 -9% 205.55 191.77 -7% (0.57) O'Brien
2010 Georgia 3.60 24% 239.41 223.22 -7% (0.57) Richt
2008 Minnesota 2.53 -13% 201.37 187.70 -7% (0.57) Brewster
2011 Texas 3.80 30% 246.26 229.45 -7% (0.58) Brown
2009 Kansas State 2.52 -13% 201.02 187.10 -7% (0.59) Snyder
2006 Purdue 2.68 -8% 206.44 192.09 -7% (0.59) Tiller
2009 Minnesota 2.64 -9% 205.11 190.46 -7% (0.60) Brewster
2010 Duke 2.43 -17% 197.68 183.50 -7% (0.61) Cutcliffe
2010 Northwestern 2.56 -12% 202.26 187.16 -7% (0.63) Fitzgerald
2006 Mississippi State 2.50 -14% 200.35 185.16 -8% (0.64) Croom
2012 Indiana 2.57 -12% 202.53 187.09 -8% (0.64) Wilson
2012 Arkansas 2.98 2% 217.42 200.79 -8% (0.65) J.L. Smith
2012 Missouri 3.01 3% 218.44 201.45 -8% (0.66) Pinkel
2006 Michigan State 2.59 -11% 203.33 187.49 -8% (0.66) J.L. Smith
2011 Duke 2.51 -14% 200.48 184.73 -8% (0.66) Cutcliffe
2009 Washington 2.85 -2% 212.62 195.88 -8% (0.66) Sarkisian
2006 Florida State 3.53 21% 236.79 218.03 -8% (0.67) B. Bowden
2006 Virginia 2.85 -2% 212.48 195.57 -8% (0.67) Groh
2012 Mississippi State 2.98 2% 217.15 199.84 -8% (0.67) Mullen
2010 Indiana 2.35 -19% 194.97 179.34 -8% (0.68) Lynch
2009 Virginia 2.61 -10% 204.08 187.70 -8% (0.68) Groh
2010 Iowa State 2.36 -19% 195.15 179.42 -8% (0.68) Rhoads
2012 USC 3.86 33% 248.66 228.45 -8% (0.69) Kiffen
2011 Purdue 2.52 -13% 201.02 184.48 -8% (0.70) Hope
2006 NC State 2.83 -3% 211.82 193.85 -8% (0.72) Amato
2010 Ole Miss 3.03 4% 218.97 200.05 -9% (0.73) Nutt
2007 Northwestern 2.33 -20% 194.13 177.29 -9% (0.73) Fitzgerald
2009 Syracuse 2.40 -18% 196.66 179.51 -9% (0.74) Marrone
2012 Purdue 2.61 -10% 204.22 186.23 -9% (0.74) Hope
2012 Duke 2.53 -13% 201.20 183.40 -9% (0.75) Cutcliffe
2009 Georgia 3.65 25% 241.10 219.57 -9% (0.75) Richt
2011 Boston College 2.66 -9% 205.86 187.27 -9% (0.76) Spaziani
2009 Indiana 2.29 -21% 192.75 175.28 -9% (0.77) Lynch
2007 Iowa 2.81 -4% 211.24 191.67 -9% (0.78) Ferentz
2012 Utah 2.84 -3% 212.26 192.47 -9% (0.79) Whittingham
2011 Ohio State 3.65 25% 241.23 218.74 -9% (0.79) Fickell
2010 Colorado 2.80 -4% 210.93 190.60 -10% (0.81) Hawkins
2007 Florida State 3.47 19% 234.66 211.80 -10% (0.82) B. Bowden
2006 Miami-FL 3.52 21% 236.52 213.47 -10% (0.82) Coker
2009 California 3.15 8% 223.33 201.49 -10% (0.83) Tedford
2008 Indiana 2.18 -25% 188.80 170.23 -10% (0.83) Lynch
2007 Texas A&M 3.01 3% 218.22 196.61 -10% (0.84) Franchione
2010 Washington 2.93 1% 215.46 194.02 -10% (0.84) Sarkisian
2011 Washington 2.99 3% 217.55 195.61 -10% (0.85) Sarkisian
2008 Arkansas 2.83 -3% 211.90 190.53 -10% (0.85) Petrino
2006 Iowa State 2.34 -20% 194.48 174.59 -10% (0.86) McCarney
2011 Tennessee 3.30 13% 228.79 205.39 -10% (0.86) Dooley
2010 Georgia Tech 3.03 4% 218.97 196.49 -10% (0.87) P. Johnson
2012 Minnesota 2.67 -8% 206.35 185.05 -10% (0.87) Kill
2006 Ole Miss 2.73 -6% 208.26 186.71 -10% (0.87) Orgeron
2012 Iowa 2.77 -5% 209.82 188.07 -10% (0.88) Ferentz
2010 Penn State 3.31 14% 229.10 205.03 -11% (0.89) Paterno
2011 Florida 3.76 29% 245.01 218.99 -11% (0.90) Muschamp
2009 USC 4.02 38% 254.21 226.75 -11% (0.91) Carroll
2010 Purdue 2.49 -15% 199.86 178.11 -11% (0.92) Hope
2012 South Florida 2.80 -4% 211.02 187.62 -11% (0.94) S. Holtz
2008 Arizona State 2.94 1% 215.77 191.79 -11% (0.94) Erickson
2010 Virginia 2.67 -8% 206.39 182.87 -11% (0.96) London
2008 Tennessee 3.34 15% 230.21 203.75 -11% (0.97) Fulmer
2007 Minnesota 2.34 -20% 194.57 171.94 -12% (0.98) Brewster
2012 Miami-FL 3.16 9% 223.77 197.33 -12% (1.00) Golden
2009 Baylor 2.44 -16% 198.13 174.29 -12% (1.02) Briles
2010 Florida 3.89 34% 249.72 219.63 -12% (1.02) Meyer
2008 Kansas State 2.63 -10% 204.79 179.61 -12% (1.04) Prince
2010 Michigan 3.48 19% 235.10 205.91 -12% (1.05) Rodriguez
2008 Syracuse 2.44 -16% 198.08 173.13 -13% (1.06) Robinson
2012 Tennessee 3.37 16% 231.24 201.59 -13% (1.08) Dooley
2010 Tennessee 3.37 16% 231.10 201.41 -13% (1.09) Dooley
2011 Washington State 2.47 -15% 199.02 173.39 -13% (1.09) Wulff
2007 Nebraska 3.06 5% 220.04 191.35 -13% (1.10) Callahan
2009 UCLA 3.39 16% 231.86 201.51 -13% (1.11) Neuheisel
2007 Iowa State 2.34 -20% 194.40 168.86 -13% (1.11) Chizik
2008 Notre Dame 3.59 23% 238.88 207.45 -13% (1.11) Weis
2011 Arizona 2.82 -3% 211.68 183.59 -13% (1.12) M. Stoops
2012 Boston College 2.65 -9% 205.51 177.89 -13% (1.14) Spaziani
2008 Iowa State 2.38 -18% 195.91 169.31 -14% (1.15) Chizik
2008 Auburn 3.22 11% 225.95 195.00 -14% (1.16) Tuberville
2012 Virginia 2.82 -3% 211.46 182.30 -14% (1.17) London
2010 Minnesota 2.72 -7% 208.13 179.25 -14% (1.17) Brewster
2011 Auburn 3.31 14% 229.15 197.31 -14% (1.17) Chizik
2008 Miami-FL 3.49 20% 235.50 202.69 -14% (1.18) Shannon
2009 Colorado 2.81 -4% 211.06 181.59 -14% (1.18) Hawkins
2007 Ole Miss 2.84 -3% 212.17 182.18 -14% (1.19) Orgeron
2011 Oregon State 2.67 -8% 206.17 176.94 -14% (1.20) Riley
2011 Kentucky 2.71 -7% 207.82 178.24 -14% (1.20) Phillips
2009 Maryland 2.87 -1% 213.46 182.79 -14% (1.21) Friedgen
2010 Rutgers 2.77 -5% 209.91 179.55 -14% (1.22) Schiano
2010 USC 4.07 39% 255.85 217.12 -15% (1.28) Kiffen
2006 North Carolina 2.73 -6% 208.44 176.69 -15% (1.29) Bunting
2010 Vanderbilt 2.44 -16% 198.08 167.46 -15% (1.31) Caldwell
2011 Texas Tech 2.98 2% 217.28 183.66 -15% (1.31) Tuberville
2006 Duke 2.32 -20% 193.95 163.79 -16% (1.31) Roof
2009 Michigan 3.57 23% 238.26 200.97 -16% (1.32) Rodriguez
2007 Duke 2.30 -21% 193.06 162.21 -16% (1.35) Roof
2008 Louisville 2.81 -4% 211.24 176.80 -16% (1.38) Kragthorpe
2012 Maryland 2.86 -2% 213.15 178.25 -16% (1.38) Edsall
2010 Wake Forest 2.47 -15% 198.97 165.36 -17% (1.43) Grobe
2012 Washington State 2.56 -12% 202.22 166.82 -18% (1.48) Leach
2008 Mississippi State 2.61 -11% 203.99 167.92 -18% (1.49) Croom
2012 California 3.24 11% 226.66 185.95 -18% (1.52) Tedford
2009 Louisville 2.74 -6% 208.62 171.14 -18% (1.52) Kragthorpe
2010 California 3.19 9% 224.61 184.03 -18% (1.53) Tedford
2007 Miami-FL 3.50 20% 235.72 193.02 -18% (1.53) Shannon
2011 Maryland 2.89 -1% 213.99 174.15 -19% (1.57) Edsall
2007 Baylor 2.22 -24% 190.35 154.89 -19% (1.57) Morriss
2006 Stanford 2.65 -9% 205.68 167.05 -19% (1.59) Harris
2008 Colorado 2.79 -4% 210.53 170.65 -19% (1.60) Hawkins
2009 Illinois 2.90 0% 214.48 173.17 -19% (1.63) Zook
2011 Minnesota 2.78 -5% 210.08 169.48 -19% (1.63) Kill
2007 Syracuse 2.34 -20% 194.62 156.86 -19% (1.64) Robinson
2010 Washington State 2.49 -15% 199.82 159.88 -20% (1.69) Wulff
2010 Texas 3.80 30% 246.26 196.23 -20% (1.72) Brown
2012 Wake Forest 2.61 -10% 204.08 161.74 -21% (1.75) Grobe
2011 Indiana 2.46 -16% 198.66 156.98 -21% (1.77) Wilson
2008 Michigan 3.59 23% 238.83 188.46 -21% (1.78) Rodriguez
2012 Kansas 2.74 -6% 208.66 164.00 -21% (1.81) Weis
2012 Illinois 2.70 -7% 207.24 161.45 -22% (1.87) Beckman
2008 UCLA 3.31 14% 229.06 178.23 -22% (1.87) Neuheisel
2010 UCLA 3.50 20% 235.64 183.35 -22% (1.87) Neuheisel
2011 UCLA 3.35 15% 230.35 178.43 -23% (1.90) Neuheisel
2011 Ole Miss 3.02 4% 218.62 166.72 -24% (2.01) Nutt
2007 Notre Dame 3.31 14% 228.97 172.19 -25% (2.10) Weis
2012 Kentucky 2.79 -4% 210.44 158.06 -25% (2.10) Phillips
2011 Colorado 2.76 -5% 209.46 154.69 -26% (2.21) Embree
2008 Texas A&M 3.13 7% 222.53 163.12 -27% (2.26) Sherman
2010 Kansas 2.75 -6% 209.11 153.00 -27% (2.27) Gill
2011 Kansas 2.86 -2% 212.84 152.71 -28% (2.39) Gill
2012 Auburn 3.48 19% 235.06 162.87 -31% (2.59) Chizik
2008 Washington 2.81 -4% 211.24 143.28 -32% (2.72) Willingham
2008 Washington State 2.45 -16% 198.57 125.55 -37% (3.11) Wulff
2009 Washington State 2.49 -15% 199.77 125.81 -37% (3.13) Wulff
2012 Colorado 2.67 -8% 206.22 128.02 -38% (3.20) Embree
Average 2.91 214.94 214.93 0.00
Standard Deviation 0.43 15.34 29.58 0.12

"I was told there would be no math."

I will be the first to admit that I am not a statistician. My unspectacular grades in my undergrad and graduate stats classes are proof positive of that fact. I do utilize lots of numbers and some statistical analyses in my professional life, but I am seldom the person actually designing the stat studies. A few extremely quant-savvy and helpful readers pointed out some of the pitfalls in the regression analysis I was doing. But I have to admit, when concepts like serial correlation and heteroscedasticity enter the fray, I am rapidly getting out of my depth.

Several other readers pointed out that the r-squared value of the statistical relationship between Apparent Talent and Team Quality didn’t exactly knock their socks off. I can recall multiple stats professors and quant professionals telling me not to get too wrapped up in r-squared because while it is intuitively appealing it isn’t the silver bullet of stats interpretation that most non-nerds think it is. They instead extolled the virtues of t-tests, z-scores, and P-values and…zzzzzzz.

Anyway, I wanted to get away from the heavy duty regression-centric discussion and couch the relationship in terms that most of us can relate to better. In order to do this, I ranked all 466 team seasons from AQ conferences in terms of Team Quality and then looked at the distribution. Lo and behold, the distribution was extremely close to a normal distribution that even those among us who struggled with Stats 101 ought to be familiar with:

In this case, instead of using just F/+ as the proxy for Team Quality, I decided to be a bit more democratic and inclusive and used an equally weighted composite of FO’s F/+, FO’s S&P+, and Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor ranking. I call this three-headed bastard Quality Composite. You will recall also that I am now using a composite of Scout and Rivals four year average star rankings as my Apparent Talent measure.

Year School Coach Apparent Talent F/+ Rtg S&P+ Sagarin Predictor Quality Composite Rank
2011 Alabama Saban 3.70 307.75 332.95 102.72 300.00 1
2012 Alabama Saban 3.72 301.28 312.27 101.75 290.74 2
2008 USC Carroll 4.07 295.19 311.86 102.16 289.04 3
2008 Florida Meyer 3.82 298.74 299.39 102.62 286.89 4
2011 LSU Miles 3.61 293.64 297.47 98.31 280.46 5
2009 Alabama Saban 3.52 282.37 284.40 97.87 272.45 6
2009 Florida Meyer 3.89 281.55 290.92 94.68 271.03 7
2008 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.52 270.83 278.74 97.91 267.04 8
2010 Alabama Saban 3.53 274.94 272.85 96.36 265.09 9
2010 Stanford Harbaugh 3.03 266.35 263.92 100.91 264.05 10
2012 Oregon C. Kelly 3.32 276.60 270.46 95.37 263.96 11
2009 Texas Brown 3.73 275.74 280.50 92.51 263.90 12
2011 Oklahoma State Gundy 2.99 275.80 266.21 95.86 262.89 13
2008 Texas Brown 3.70 273.01 268.61 95.25 262.11 14
2012 Texas A&M Sumlin 3.17 270.18 263.59 96.34 260.75 15
2008 Penn State Paterno 3.26 268.08 268.77 94.30 259.63 16
2006 LSU Miles 3.57 263.76 280.79 91.80 259.41 17
2010 Auburn Chizik 3.22 272.94 259.35 93.56 257.66 18
2010 Ohio State Tressel 3.70 267.86 271.78 90.34 256.61 19
2011 Oregon C. Kelly 3.28 267.53 264.62 92.48 256.44 20
2006 Louisville Petrino 2.48 258.51 274.76 92.26 256.34 21
2007 Ohio State Tressel 3.53 266.89 277.63 87.96 255.73 22
2006 Florida Meyer 3.64 262.53 268.57 91.93 255.46 23
2007 LSU Miles 3.63 267.44 261.24 92.43 255.34 24
2007 USC Carroll 4.11 266.21 262.35 92.38 255.23 25
2006 Ohio State Tressel 3.46 256.04 271.52 92.64 254.93 26
2009 Virginia Tech Beamer 2.90 262.99 255.38 92.71 252.41 27
2006 USC Carroll 3.90 254.59 254.15 95.21 251.75 28
2010 Oregon C. Kelly 3.20 253.04 248.91 97.28 251.68 29
2012 Florida Muschamp 3.75 268.32 258.45 88.97 251.42 30
2011 Wisconsin Bielema 2.87 258.56 255.60 92.90 251.22 31
2009 Penn State Paterno 3.30 260.55 275.43 85.60 250.72 32
2011 Stanford Shaw 3.18 256.94 252.84 93.01 249.98 33
2012 Georgia Richt 3.61 258.20 254.59 91.96 249.89 34
2012 Florida State Fisher 3.64 259.04 263.43 88.89 249.83 35
2009 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.49 254.52 269.03 88.52 249.68 36
2011 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.65 255.39 252.87 93.02 249.49 37
2007 West Virginia Rodriguez 2.57 265.42 259.85 87.33 249.31 38
2007 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.47 254.55 247.88 94.55 249.21 39
2007 Florida Meyer 3.73 258.92 249.26 92.23 248.79 40
2008 Alabama Saban 3.31 254.68 261.76 89.00 248.02 41
2009 Nebraska Pellini 3.15 251.02 260.00 89.64 246.92 42
2007 Oregon Bellotti 2.89 255.63 243.97 92.98 246.86 43
2012 Notre Dame B. Kelly 3.49 254.87 253.35 90.23 246.75 44
2009 Ohio State Tressel 3.76 255.56 251.73 89.08 245.37 45
2006 Michigan Carr 3.60 247.44 261.63 88.73 245.36 46
2010 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.55 256.83 249.67 88.66 244.75 47
2010 Arkansas Petrino 2.89 257.06 250.46 87.09 243.54 48
2008 Ohio State Tressel 3.71 250.28 252.64 87.87 242.75 49
2010 Oklahoma State Gundy 3.01 249.64 246.28 89.11 241.84 50
2011 Michigan Hoke 3.40 252.79 246.91 87.34 241.33 51
2006 West Virginia Rodriguez 2.43 245.76 253.51 87.33 241.01 52
2007 Virginia Tech Beamer 2.88 250.14 247.10 87.75 240.92 53
2012 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.57 253.94 246.27 86.18 240.38 54
2012 LSU Miles 3.57 251.89 246.04 86.47 239.92 55
2012 Kansas State Snyder 2.37 253.72 232.50 89.82 239.71 56
2012 Oklahoma State Gundy 3.01 250.52 241.35 88.10 239.66 57
2008 Ole Miss Nutt 2.88 249.95 244.38 87.34 239.64 58
2012 South Carolina Spurrier 3.15 247.39 242.25 88.38 239.18 59
2012 Stanford Shaw 3.37 251.14 237.97 86.86 237.64 60
2010 Virginia Tech Beamer 2.98 250.58 241.74 85.83 237.59 61
2008 Iowa Ferentz 2.83 242.22 242.06 88.20 237.27 62
2009 Iowa Ferentz 2.61 250.20 248.18 83.50 237.13 63
2011 USC Kiffen 3.85 247.36 239.82 86.97 237.07 64
2010 Wisconsin Bielema 2.87 249.23 244.32 84.88 237.00 65
2011 Michigan State Dantonio 2.95 247.57 245.33 85.03 236.91 66
2011 Georgia Richt 3.63 245.54 251.21 83.64 236.66 67
2011 Florida State Fisher 3.49 248.30 246.84 83.99 236.58 68
2007 Georgia Richt 3.56 247.55 231.00 88.61 236.08 69
2010 Missouri Pinkel 2.90 246.58 241.33 85.66 236.00 70
2006 Rutgers Schiano 2.31 237.43 245.35 87.47 235.99 71
2011 Notre Dame B. Kelly 3.57 246.90 248.81 83.15 235.90 72
2011 Texas A&M Sherman 3.13 242.06 241.28 86.71 235.53 73
2006 Oklahoma B. Stoops 3.55 239.43 246.21 85.84 235.31 74
2008 Texas Tech Leach 2.79 241.45 238.47 87.15 234.92 75
2010 LSU Miles 3.67 242.04 233.33 88.14 234.53 76
2006 Virginia Tech Beamer 2.86 239.50 251.02 83.32 234.33 77
2008 Missouri Pinkel 2.73 239.44 244.85 84.65 233.75 78
2011 Arkansas Petrino 2.93 239.71 234.61 87.43 233.47 79
2010 South Carolina Spurrier 3.15 243.90 242.38 83.35 233.19 80
2006 Tennessee Fulmer 3.32 241.00 245.82 83.16 233.10 81
2006 California Tedford 3.11 233.50 228.41 90.98 233.05 82
2007 Missouri Pinkel 2.60 247.66 248.60 79.52 232.55 83
2007 Clemson T. Bowden 2.95 243.72 239.58 83.60 232.54 84
2009 Pittsburgh Wannstedt 3.18 241.91 240.55 83.73 232.37 85
2010 Florida State Fisher 3.38 237.94 232.29 87.59 232.35 86
2012 Oregon State Riley 2.69 239.92 234.30 85.82 231.88 87
2006 Wisconsin Bielema 2.61 235.41 244.30 84.14 231.78 88
2009 Oregon C. Kelly 3.02 240.31 230.51 85.77 230.81 89
2012 Wisconsin Bielema 2.93 240.76 237.34 83.21 230.52 90
2012 Ohio State Meyer 3.62 245.87 234.28 82.34 230.42 91
2007 Texas Brown 3.64 235.52 236.04 85.13 230.30 92
2010 Notre Dame B. Kelly 3.62 237.63 238.04 83.54 230.04 93
2011 South Carolina Spurrier 3.11 231.51 235.50 86.24 229.91 94
2006 Texas Brown 3.56 232.83 235.26 85.85 229.89 95
2012 Clemson Swinney 3.36 236.72 235.87 84.34 229.87 96
2008 Oregon Bellotti 3.00 232.06 236.04 85.78 229.80 97
2006 Arkansas Nutt 2.73 237.36 240.32 82.59 229.71 98
2007 Auburn Tuberville 3.08 241.67 233.68 83.02 229.53 99
2012 Michigan Hoke 3.40 238.70 237.73 82.37 229.15 100
2009 Texas Tech Leach 2.85 237.25 236.75 83.05 229.05 101
2009 Clemson Swinney 3.35 240.49 230.12 83.83 228.87 102
2006 Clemson T. Bowden 2.86 233.89 240.93 82.36 228.54 103
2012 Nebraska Pellini 3.22 239.79 240.62 80.24 228.30 104
2006 Auburn Tuberville 3.04 233.08 233.44 84.43 228.04 105
2007 South Florida Leavitt 2.36 245.88 239.16 78.32 227.97 106
2008 Oklahoma State Gundy 2.90 232.41 236.52 83.61 227.95 107
2010 Texas A&M Sherman 3.16 237.67 236.89 81.49 227.71 108
2010 Nebraska Pellini 3.11 240.63 234.29 81.22 227.63 109
2010 West Virginia Stewart 2.95 239.71 239.12 79.82 227.41 110
2010 NC State O'Brien 2.77 234.32 227.05 85.28 227.35 111
2008 Georgia Richt 3.62 231.10 236.69 83.36 227.33 112
2009 Cincinnati B. Kelly 2.27 235.08 230.84 83.74 227.24 113
2009 Wisconsin Bielema 2.82 240.09 237.23 80.04 227.18 114
2007 Rutgers Schiano 2.43 222.41 231.07 87.47 226.82 115
2010 Iowa Ferentz 2.67 235.45 231.45 82.93 226.75 116
2012 Michigan State Dantonio 3.04 241.37 241.35 77.73 226.59 117
2008 California Tedford 3.26 227.10 232.88 84.96 226.45 118
2009 Ole Miss Nutt 3.01 233.84 231.08 82.68 225.88 119
2007 Louisville Kragthorpe 2.67 218.06 216.94 92.26 225.83 120
2006 Boston College O'Brien 2.67 235.17 236.31 80.46 225.72 121
2006 Georgia Richt 3.51 229.57 226.41 85.02 225.37 122
2008 Arizona M. Stoops 3.11 228.66 230.10 84.11 225.29 123
2009 Oregon State Riley 2.57 233.40 245.30 77.61 225.07 124
2007 Tennessee Fulmer 3.41 236.54 227.01 82.19 225.06 125
2006 South Carolina Spurrier 2.85 230.10 237.00 81.21 225.01 126
2011 Texas Brown 3.80 229.45 226.83 84.28 224.73 127
2009 Miami-FL Shannon 3.41 235.59 225.48 82.63 224.71 128
2011 Missouri Pinkel 2.98 229.07 223.42 85.00 224.29 129
2009 Georgia Tech P. Johnson 2.91 231.64 222.14 84.45 224.20 130
2009 Arkansas Petrino 2.88 228.93 229.17 82.93 223.95 131
2008 Oregon State Riley 2.56 223.01 226.31 85.54 223.71 132
2007 Penn State Paterno 3.23 226.80 237.48 80.76 223.64 133
2010 Pittsburgh Wannstedt 3.17 231.00 231.10 81.15 223.47 134
2007 Boston College Jagodzinski 2.66 232.94 231.11 80.46 223.43 135
2007 Texas Tech Leach 2.71 227.93 233.54 81.15 223.21 136
2007 Kansas Mangino 2.39 244.10 245.14 71.91 222.95 137
2011 Baylor Briles 2.69 226.90 227.25 83.11 222.89 138
2012 Texas Brown 3.82 231.23 220.63 83.52 222.71 139
2010 Miami-FL Shannon 3.33 233.53 231.28 79.45 222.69 140
2012 Baylor Briles 2.81 225.01 221.83 84.71 222.21 141
2009 Tennessee Kiffen 3.32 229.06 233.60 79.62 222.10 142
2008 LSU Miles 3.65 227.79 225.75 82.34 221.98 143
2007 Arkansas Nutt 2.77 230.74 221.60 82.59 221.94 144
2012 Penn State O'Brien 3.19 229.93 230.92 79.78 221.73 145
2008 Florida State B. Bowden 3.44 228.80 219.08 83.78 221.71 146
2011 West Virginia Holgorsen 2.90 232.35 224.39 80.86 221.61 147
2006 Nebraska Callahan 2.97 225.14 229.66 81.64 221.61 148
2009 USC Carroll 4.02 226.75 224.45 82.41 221.32 149
2012 USC Kiffen 3.86 228.45 227.19 80.87 221.20 150
2008 Clemson Swinney 3.22 227.81 228.05 80.78 221.16 151
2009 LSU Miles 3.67 227.48 216.99 84.21 221.07 152
2008 Pittsburgh Wannstedt 3.03 233.25 227.24 78.53 220.49 153
2007 Michigan Carr 3.56 227.34 225.05 80.97 220.29 154
2009 Notre Dame Weis 3.68 229.98 230.33 78.29 220.12 155
2007 Oregon State Riley 2.48 227.49 225.02 80.45 219.82 156
2007 UCLA Dorrell 3.09 229.48 222.43 80.57 219.81 157
2011 Nebraska Pellini 3.16 225.98 226.12 80.49 219.70 158
2006 Penn State Paterno 3.18 218.15 231.82 81.29 219.65 159
2012 Ole Miss Freeze 3.07 219.28 229.22 81.59 219.53 160
2011 Virginia Tech Beamer 3.00 228.00 229.47 78.54 219.47 161
2012 Arizona State Graham 2.84 218.07 221.29 83.77 218.87 162
2006 Notre Dame Weis 3.25 226.21 227.09 79.26 218.87 163
2006 Georgia Tech Gailey 2.51 225.96 229.34 78.61 218.83 164
2007 Cincinnati B. Kelly 2.08 242.07 232.32 72.17 218.69 165
2007 California Tedford 3.19 228.41 221.33 79.56 218.14 166
2010 Georgia Richt 3.60 223.22 227.28 78.84 217.55 167
2010 Mississippi State Mullen 2.81 221.75 215.35 83.00 217.54 168
2010 Arizona State Erickson 2.97 212.30 218.22 84.97 217.25 169
2007 Kentucky Brooks 2.31 231.63 225.35 76.24 217.17 170
2012 TCU Patterson 2.89 224.65 222.12 79.56 217.16 171
2006 Missouri Pinkel 2.60 221.55 225.58 79.52 217.16 172
2007 Wisconsin Bielema 2.68 216.13 216.33 84.14 217.11 173
2008 Boston College Jagodzinski 2.68 226.27 222.53 78.82 217.09 174
2010 Florida Meyer 3.89 219.63 216.98 82.38 216.73 175
2012 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.74 225.85 215.14 80.76 216.62 176
2008 Nebraska Pellini 3.18 217.32 226.04 80.16 216.54 177
2008 Virginia Tech Beamer 2.92 221.03 217.13 81.54 216.41 178
2009 Connecticut Edsall 2.23 222.81 221.16 79.61 216.33 179
2011 Penn State Paterno/Bradley 3.29 221.08 228.85 77.81 216.32 180
2010 USC Kiffen 4.07 217.12 217.00 82.74 216.28 181
2010 Illinois Zook 2.84 220.76 222.14 79.92 216.25 182
2009 Stanford Harbaugh 2.87 223.82 213.30 81.61 216.24 183
2007 Oklahoma State Gundy 2.83 215.79 224.99 80.59 216.15 184
2010 Michigan State Dantonio 2.82 229.54 230.15 74.41 216.15 185
2007 Arizona State Erickson 2.78 232.48 220.04 76.38 215.99 186
2006 Texas Tech Leach 2.74 214.60 223.42 81.15 215.83 187
2010 Arizona M. Stoops 2.89 214.75 224.24 80.78 215.77 188
2008 North Carolina B. Davis 2.90 230.43 212.53 79.08 215.69 189
2006 Oklahoma State Gundy 2.74 218.61 222.07 79.73 215.35 190
2006 Florida State B. Bowden 3.53 218.03 222.80 79.61 215.27 191
2011 Cincinnati B. Jones 2.49 228.14 215.76 78.35 215.21 192
2009 North Carolina B. Davis 3.10 222.34 218.90 79.31 215.20 193
2012 UCLA Mora 3.25 222.44 217.27 79.62 215.05 194
2009 Oklahoma State Gundy 2.99 223.31 227.48 76.07 214.94 195
2009 Boston College Spaziani 2.62 224.90 223.18 76.68 214.76 196
2008 West Virginia Stewart 2.66 221.99 221.34 78.21 214.75 197
2006 South Florida Leavitt 2.25 217.80 225.44 78.32 214.73 198
2012 Louisville Strong 2.77 227.45 219.22 77.01 214.72 199
2008 Connecticut Edsall 2.20 223.32 226.31 76.01 214.53 200
2011 Florida Muschamp 3.76 218.99 223.15 78.33 214.44 201
2009 Auburn Chizik 3.23 219.63 222.86 78.09 214.32 202
2006 Oregon State Riley 2.45 217.55 217.35 80.45 214.29 203
2009 South Carolina Spurrier 3.15 219.49 230.60 75.66 214.24 204
2008 Wake Forest Grobe 2.33 223.80 213.96 78.86 213.75 205
2012 Cincinnati B. Jones 2.62 228.71 213.44 77.35 213.72 206
2011 Kansas State Snyder 2.58 224.40 206.56 80.86 213.67 207
2010 Clemson Swinney 3.32 227.66 218.91 75.93 213.64 208
2007 South Carolina Spurrier 2.94 219.00 215.89 79.51 213.41 209
2006 Texas A&M Franchione 3.05 220.62 223.00 76.73 213.36 210
2009 Arizona M. Stoops 2.99 223.45 221.28 76.29 213.34 211
2006 Wake Forest Grobe 2.29 219.89 213.80 79.60 213.15 212
2009 Georgia Richt 3.65 219.57 213.52 79.38 212.75 213
2008 Rutgers Schiano 2.54 220.07 221.05 76.89 212.75 214
2006 Pittsburgh Wannstedt 2.61 212.50 219.83 79.65 212.62 215
2009 Florida State B. Bowden 3.37 217.94 220.34 77.48 212.42 216
2008 Cincinnati B. Kelly 2.17 224.33 222.18 74.73 212.37 217
2008 Kansas Mangino 2.60 211.05 222.05 78.91 212.09 218
2012 Georgia Tech P. Johnson 2.94 212.28 225.21 77.49 212.06 219
2007 Alabama Saban 3.08 220.36 210.60 79.14 211.90 220
2010 Oregon State Riley 2.62 206.74 219.39 80.96 211.88 221
2007 Arizona M. Stoops 2.93 220.45 213.22 78.20 211.80 222
2012 Syracuse Marrone 2.43 220.49 212.22 78.37 211.68 223
2006 UCLA Dorrell 2.94 215.14 216.10 78.47 211.20 224
2008 South Florida Leavitt 2.42 218.90 220.75 75.70 211.12 225
2012 Arizona Rodriguez 2.78 219.59 220.87 75.41 211.10 226
2010 Maryland Friedgen 2.88 217.86 213.69 78.06 210.97 227
2011 Vanderbilt Franklin 2.51 215.49 218.92 77.07 210.80 228
2011 Miami-FL Golden 3.17 221.03 213.05 76.63 210.41 229
2011 California Tedford 3.24 212.37 219.90 77.24 210.25 230
2011 Ohio State Fickell 3.65 218.74 217.25 75.85 210.17 231
2008 Michigan State Dantonio 2.62 213.00 217.30 77.54 209.96 232
2012 Texas Tech Tuberville 2.98 213.77 214.46 77.97 209.78 233
2012 North Carolina Fedora 3.13 213.59 211.24 78.78 209.54 234
2012 Vanderbilt Franklin 2.71 212.19 209.40 79.78 209.51 235
2006 Oregon Bellotti 2.78 211.81 217.30 77.30 209.34 236
2011 Rutgers Schiano 2.80 224.23 203.63 76.99 208.97 237
2011 Clemson Swinney 3.35 220.49 211.92 75.57 208.86 238
2012 Rutgers Flood 2.92 219.28 215.31 74.76 208.70 239
2006 Arizona State Koetter 2.82 212.98 216.17 76.38 208.49 240
2007 Wake Forest Grobe 2.27 212.92 205.53 79.60 208.41 241
2011 South Florida S. Holtz 2.73 218.78 216.83 74.09 208.34 242
2006 Miami-FL Coker 3.52 213.47 220.15 74.82 208.32 243
2009 Wake Forest Grobe 2.39 214.16 221.80 74.04 208.28 244
2009 Texas A&M Sherman 3.14 210.17 231.32 72.19 208.04 245
2008 South Carolina Spurrier 3.07 212.66 213.15 76.84 207.92 246
2010 North Carolina B. Davis 3.18 214.03 213.98 76.10 207.90 247
2006 Cincinnati B. Kelly 2.04 215.05 225.55 72.17 207.88 248
2006 Alabama Shula 2.96 214.46 220.94 73.76 207.85 249
2006 Iowa Ferentz 2.76 206.48 216.04 77.73 207.65 250
2007 Illinois Zook 2.69 230.83 234.46 63.87 207.60 251
2011 Arizona State Erickson 2.93 211.28 210.00 77.62 207.29 252
2007 Georgia Tech Gailey 2.68 209.02 208.79 78.61 207.15 253
2012 Virginia Tech Beamer 3.01 215.14 216.25 74.11 207.00 254
2011 Mississippi State Mullen 2.87 208.84 213.05 77.19 206.99 255
2012 West Virginia Holgorsen 2.97 213.18 217.15 74.44 206.96 256
2007 Florida State B. Bowden 3.47 211.80 210.12 76.75 206.65 257
2006 Minnesota Mason 2.37 203.23 212.49 78.36 206.14 258
2008 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.39 210.04 212.45 75.59 205.65 259
2009 West Virginia Stewart 2.80 211.99 205.22 76.95 205.43 260
2010 Louisville Strong 2.70 211.35 212.96 74.60 205.26 261
2008 Georgia Tech P. Johnson 2.80 215.67 209.53 74.00 205.05 262
2009 Michigan State Dantonio 2.69 210.87 208.93 75.75 205.01 263
2008 Illinois Zook 2.86 208.16 221.34 72.46 204.66 264
2009 South Florida Leavitt 2.59 200.80 215.84 76.57 204.62 265
2006 Kentucky Brooks 2.34 206.06 210.42 76.24 204.38 266
2011 Georgia Tech P. Johnson 2.90 213.54 216.11 71.98 204.37 267
2009 Kansas Mangino 2.70 206.91 215.98 73.52 203.67 268
2012 Pittsburgh Chryst 3.00 212.05 206.82 74.00 203.06 269
2009 Missouri Pinkel 2.73 206.50 215.91 73.01 203.02 270
2010 South Florida S. Holtz 2.68 213.84 206.48 73.42 202.97 271
2011 Iowa Ferentz 2.71 210.59 207.11 74.24 202.91 272
2007 Michigan State Dantonio 2.66 216.74 218.81 68.50 202.83 273
2011 Illinois Zook 2.76 204.00 218.96 72.70 202.83 274
2012 Missouri Pinkel 3.01 201.45 208.82 76.64 202.79 275
2007 Connecticut Edsall 2.08 221.49 216.98 67.39 202.74 276
2012 Mississippi State Mullen 2.98 199.84 210.44 76.62 202.73 277
2011 Tennessee Dooley 3.30 205.39 213.63 73.49 202.44 278
2009 Purdue Hope 2.43 212.67 217.33 69.90 202.43 279
2011 North Carolina Withers 3.21 211.83 208.49 72.80 202.32 280
2009 Mississippi State Mullen 2.77 201.99 209.52 75.72 202.27 281
2006 Washington State Doba 2.56 205.04 204.67 76.19 202.27 282
2007 Maryland Friedgen 2.84 211.01 207.57 73.22 202.19 283
2007 Texas A&M Franchione 3.01 196.61 214.40 75.90 202.17 284
2011 Utah Whittingham 2.82 202.47 207.51 76.04 202.14 285
2008 Wisconsin Bielema 2.77 207.41 213.81 71.60 201.31 286
2008 Notre Dame Weis 3.59 207.45 206.88 73.69 201.28 287
2008 Miami-FL Shannon 3.49 202.69 199.96 77.18 201.05 288
2009 Kentucky Brooks 2.52 204.15 201.89 76.02 200.98 289
2007 Washington Willingham 2.74 209.48 208.44 72.21 200.97 290
2010 Washington Sarkisian 2.93 194.02 206.43 77.98 200.96 291
2009 Rutgers Schiano 2.71 199.38 207.33 75.88 200.92 292
2012 Tennessee Dooley 3.37 201.59 212.27 73.54 200.85 293
2012 Washington Sarkisian 2.98 203.54 206.18 74.76 200.84 294
2010 California Tedford 3.19 184.03 206.05 81.16 200.69 295
2010 Tennessee Dooley 3.37 201.41 208.40 74.31 200.38 296
2006 Maryland Friedgen 2.89 206.17 206.19 73.22 200.20 297
2008 Tennessee Fulmer 3.34 203.75 210.59 72.64 200.17 298
2008 Vanderbilt Bo. Johnson 2.22 203.59 204.69 74.32 199.98 299
2008 Stanford Harbaugh 2.75 199.71 205.86 75.20 199.93 300
2010 Penn State Paterno 3.31 205.03 210.09 72.09 199.90 301
2009 California Tedford 3.15 201.49 207.51 74.05 199.89 302
2007 Virginia Groh 2.82 213.47 208.30 69.36 199.45 303
2012 Iowa State Rhoads 2.47 204.38 202.37 74.12 199.35 304
2009 UCLA Neuheisel 3.39 201.51 204.94 74.19 199.25 305
2007 Pittsburgh Wannstedt 2.77 208.75 205.06 71.34 198.87 306
2007 Washington State Doba 2.56 196.00 202.00 76.19 198.53 307
2010 Boston College Spaziani 2.66 204.75 206.72 71.73 198.45 308
2008 Baylor Briles 2.36 193.84 212.79 73.36 198.31 309
2012 Miami-FL Golden 3.16 197.33 205.73 74.07 198.02 310
2012 Arkansas J.L. Smith 2.98 200.79 214.97 70.03 197.99 311
2008 Maryland Friedgen 2.85 205.86 204.57 71.45 197.89 312
2009 Arizona State Erickson 2.96 202.22 207.44 71.77 197.88 313
2006 Kansas Mangino 2.43 203.35 204.80 71.91 197.59 314
2011 Louisville Strong 2.70 210.69 200.77 70.56 197.45 315
2009 Washington Sarkisian 2.85 195.88 201.74 74.97 197.23 316
2011 Pittsburgh Graham 3.04 210.06 203.03 69.80 197.19 317
2010 Texas Tech Tuberville 2.85 201.42 206.23 71.62 197.11 318
2010 Kansas State Snyder 2.56 201.46 200.56 73.34 197.10 319
2010 Michigan Rodriguez 3.48 205.91 213.59 67.54 196.81 320
2010 Cincinnati B. Jones 2.34 203.95 209.19 69.50 196.76 321
2008 NC State O'Brien 2.69 205.94 197.82 71.82 196.25 322
2012 NC State O'Brien 2.75 199.54 204.08 71.94 196.17 323
2009 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.41 206.02 206.43 68.87 195.99 324
2011 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.64 199.81 200.33 72.65 195.82 325
2011 Auburn Chizik 3.31 197.31 201.45 72.82 195.51 326
2007 Kansas State Prince 2.56 199.66 207.59 70.11 195.48 327
2010 Kentucky Phillips 2.56 203.47 205.16 69.45 195.34 328
2009 Michigan Rodriguez 3.57 200.97 207.18 69.59 195.27 329
2011 Washington Sarkisian 2.99 195.61 199.83 73.48 195.11 330
2007 Purdue Tiller 2.64 200.98 210.65 68.22 194.99 331
2008 Virginia Groh 2.73 198.02 197.90 73.14 194.99 332
2006 Arizona M. Stoops 2.87 202.57 196.65 71.95 194.93 333
2007 Mississippi State Croom 2.47 209.75 202.39 67.60 194.75 334
2010 Baylor Briles 2.58 192.56 210.34 70.51 194.39 335
2007 Nebraska Callahan 3.06 191.35 207.28 71.77 194.30 336
2010 Texas Brown 3.80 196.23 205.53 70.67 194.29 337
2008 Arizona State Erickson 2.94 191.79 199.60 73.51 193.83 338
2010 Syracuse Marrone 2.39 195.24 199.23 71.82 193.20 339
2011 Connecticut Pasqualoni 2.34 202.72 199.70 69.10 193.12 340
2006 Kansas State Prince 2.71 198.25 200.90 70.11 193.01 341
2006 Vanderbilt Bo. Johnson 2.15 197.05 198.51 71.06 192.83 342
2010 Connecticut Edsall 2.28 197.24 197.73 70.81 192.41 343
2006 Washington Willingham 2.76 197.52 192.60 72.21 192.32 344
2007 Colorado Hawkins 2.59 201.63 202.12 67.63 192.06 345
2012 Utah Whittingham 2.84 192.47 193.43 73.36 192.05 346
2011 NC State O'Brien 2.81 200.46 193.83 70.39 191.88 347
2010 Ole Miss Nutt 3.03 200.05 201.27 68.05 191.70 348
2010 Georgia Tech P. Johnson 3.03 196.49 200.62 69.38 191.65 349
2008 Auburn Tuberville 3.22 195.00 196.37 71.10 191.56 350
2006 Virginia Groh 2.85 195.57 199.77 69.36 191.07 351
2008 Purdue Tiller 2.57 190.19 202.83 69.98 190.84 352
2011 Virginia London 2.71 200.47 202.90 66.40 190.72 353
2008 Kentucky Brooks 2.38 189.37 193.52 72.70 190.43 354
2011 Iowa State Rhoads 2.42 192.87 191.49 71.89 190.17 355
2011 Arizona M. Stoops 2.82 183.59 201.35 71.86 190.09 356
2008 Arkansas Petrino 2.83 190.53 205.13 68.11 189.83 357
2007 Vanderbilt Bo. Johnson 2.21 191.55 192.91 71.06 189.36 358
2007 NC State O'Brien 2.70 193.72 194.70 69.22 188.81 359
2011 Wake Forest Grobe 2.56 197.34 193.97 68.03 188.61 360
2009 NC State O'Brien 2.65 191.77 197.80 68.19 188.11 361
2006 NC State Amato 2.83 193.85 191.86 69.22 188.00 362
2006 Purdue Tiller 2.68 192.09 196.67 68.22 187.90 363
2011 Texas Tech Tuberville 2.98 183.66 197.59 70.52 187.68 364
2009 Kansas State Snyder 2.52 187.10 195.11 69.90 187.45 365
2006 Colorado Hawkins 2.66 194.36 194.14 67.63 187.30 366
2007 Minnesota Brewster 2.34 171.94 183.12 78.36 187.15 367
2007 Miami-FL Shannon 3.50 193.02 195.80 67.34 187.08 368
2008 Duke Cutcliffe 2.41 187.01 188.03 71.59 186.93 369
2010 Colorado Hawkins 2.80 190.60 198.95 66.84 186.76 370
2012 Connecticut Pasqualoni 2.40 199.93 199.83 63.45 186.75 371
2007 Iowa Ferentz 2.81 191.67 195.05 67.60 186.67 372
2010 UCLA Neuheisel 3.50 183.35 194.35 70.42 186.50 373
2009 Iowa State Rhoads 2.34 183.83 198.36 68.34 185.84 374
2011 Purdue Hope 2.52 184.48 194.48 69.13 185.65 375
2009 Virginia Groh 2.61 187.70 184.57 71.10 185.64 376
2012 California Tedford 3.24 185.95 200.96 66.56 185.58 377
2009 Minnesota Brewster 2.64 190.46 186.42 69.37 185.41 378
2006 Syracuse Robinson 2.30 185.61 190.60 69.65 185.36 379
2012 Purdue Hope 2.61 186.23 197.42 67.07 185.10 380
2006 Michigan State J.L. Smith 2.59 187.49 191.24 68.50 185.04 381
2011 UCLA Neuheisel 3.35 178.43 198.04 69.38 185.00 382
2009 Duke Cutcliffe 2.43 189.54 191.74 67.34 184.73 383
2008 Minnesota Brewster 2.53 187.70 191.10 68.05 184.64 384
2007 Ole Miss Orgeron 2.84 182.18 193.00 69.22 184.55 385
2012 Iowa Ferentz 2.77 188.07 188.75 68.55 184.54 386
2012 Minnesota Kill 2.67 185.05 191.84 68.37 184.31 387
2008 Michigan Rodriguez 3.59 188.46 195.48 65.79 184.00 388
2006 Illinois Zook 2.60 190.13 199.51 63.87 183.88 389
2007 Indiana Lynch 2.14 192.00 203.76 61.87 183.82 390
2011 Syracuse Marrone 2.39 193.43 189.54 64.90 182.96 391
2006 Ole Miss Orgeron 2.73 186.71 186.94 67.64 182.66 392
2012 South Florida S. Holtz 2.80 187.62 197.04 64.15 182.59 393
2008 Kansas State Prince 2.63 179.61 189.33 68.99 182.39 394
2012 Indiana Wilson 2.57 187.09 188.97 66.29 182.08 395
2010 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.56 187.16 187.94 66.37 181.88 396
2009 Colorado Hawkins 2.81 181.59 191.27 66.63 181.32 397
2006 Connecticut Edsall 2.03 181.51 188.44 67.39 181.18 398
2012 Duke Cutcliffe 2.53 183.40 190.35 66.17 181.18 399
2006 Mississippi State Croom 2.50 185.16 183.76 67.60 181.16 400
2007 North Carolina B. Davis 2.75 195.18 195.06 60.58 180.98 401
2012 Virginia London 2.82 182.30 195.13 64.73 180.86 402
2011 Boston College Spaziani 2.66 187.27 186.40 64.88 180.00 403
2006 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.24 185.89 190.80 63.73 179.75 404
2010 Iowa State Rhoads 2.36 179.42 188.75 66.48 179.71 405
2009 Syracuse Marrone 2.40 179.51 193.02 65.11 179.69 406
2010 Virginia London 2.67 182.87 187.10 65.34 179.23 407
2008 UCLA Neuheisel 3.31 178.23 192.63 65.18 179.22 408
2011 Oregon State Riley 2.67 176.94 190.56 66.24 179.21 409
2009 Maryland Friedgen 2.87 182.79 190.23 64.37 179.19 410
2010 Duke Cutcliffe 2.43 183.50 190.06 63.21 178.24 411
2011 Washington State Wulff 2.47 173.39 185.19 67.64 177.81 412
2009 Baylor Briles 2.44 174.29 191.74 65.24 177.73 413
2009 Vanderbilt Bo. Johnson 2.33 181.70 185.47 64.59 177.62 414
2006 Baylor Morriss 2.23 179.08 185.36 65.47 177.60 415
2007 Northwestern Fitzgerald 2.33 177.29 190.93 63.73 177.00 416
2011 Kentucky Phillips 2.71 178.24 187.21 63.78 176.23 417
2010 Minnesota Brewster 2.72 179.25 188.43 63.00 176.17 418
2009 Illinois Zook 2.90 173.17 185.28 65.30 175.49 419
2011 Duke Cutcliffe 2.51 184.73 187.37 60.51 175.21 420
2007 Stanford Harbaugh 2.66 193.27 187.48 57.10 174.70 421
2008 Louisville Kragthorpe 2.81 176.80 191.31 61.02 174.31 422
2010 Indiana Lynch 2.35 179.34 188.71 60.97 174.31 423
2010 Rutgers Schiano 2.77 179.55 179.80 63.62 174.28 424
2006 Temple Addazio 2.10 179.92 183.71 62.06 174.06 425
2012 Boston College Spaziani 2.65 177.89 183.65 62.63 173.93 426
2006 Indiana Hoeppner 2.14 178.40 185.41 61.87 173.89 427
2009 Indiana Lynch 2.29 175.28 178.83 64.75 173.70 428
2010 Purdue Hope 2.49 178.11 186.13 61.25 173.41 429
2012 Maryland Edsall 2.86 178.25 180.44 62.67 173.12 430
2008 Colorado Hawkins 2.79 170.65 176.83 66.20 173.01 431
2011 Minnesota Kill 2.78 169.48 185.30 63.92 172.95 432
2006 Iowa State McCarney 2.34 174.59 178.79 64.07 172.80 433
2011 Maryland Edsall 2.89 174.15 183.81 62.22 172.37 434
2012 Auburn Chizik 3.48 162.87 184.72 65.31 171.98 435
2007 Iowa State Chizik 2.34 168.86 181.17 64.07 171.65 436
2007 Notre Dame Weis 3.31 172.19 180.00 63.03 171.37 437
2009 Louisville Kragthorpe 2.74 171.14 177.17 63.49 170.63 438
2008 Iowa State Chizik 2.38 169.31 183.88 61.96 170.56 439
2006 North Carolina Bunting 2.73 176.69 179.98 60.58 170.44 440
2007 Syracuse Robinson 2.34 156.86 171.46 69.65 170.27 441
2008 Texas A&M Sherman 3.13 163.12 182.88 63.84 170.08 442
2008 Syracuse Robinson 2.44 173.13 183.50 59.07 168.88 443
2012 Kansas Weis 2.74 164.00 179.58 62.79 168.35 444
2012 Washington State Leach 2.56 166.82 180.03 61.50 168.15 445
2010 Washington State Wulff 2.49 159.88 171.79 66.19 167.98 446
2011 Ole Miss Nutt 3.02 166.72 180.94 60.77 167.68 447
2008 Mississippi State Croom 2.61 167.92 178.86 60.95 167.62 448
2007 Baylor Morriss 2.22 154.89 176.97 65.47 167.22 449
2010 Wake Forest Grobe 2.47 165.36 178.57 61.06 166.80 450
2012 Kentucky Phillips 2.79 158.06 182.21 61.92 166.37 451
2008 Indiana Lynch 2.18 170.23 185.68 56.29 165.88 452
2010 Vanderbilt Caldwell 2.44 167.46 174.94 58.06 163.48 453
2011 Colorado Embree 2.76 154.69 179.47 60.37 162.94 454
2012 Wake Forest Grobe 2.61 161.74 174.88 57.05 160.62 455
2011 Kansas Gill 2.86 152.71 172.88 60.49 160.43 456
2006 Stanford Harris 2.65 167.05 166.96 57.10 160.01 457
2012 Illinois Beckman 2.70 161.45 174.31 56.49 159.81 458
2007 Duke Roof 2.30 162.21 170.43 54.62 157.07 459
2011 Indiana Wilson 2.46 156.98 167.77 56.62 156.52 460
2006 Duke Roof 2.32 163.79 159.22 54.62 154.22 461
2010 Kansas Gill 2.75 153.00 160.60 54.55 151.06 462
2008 Washington Willingham 2.81 143.28 159.30 57.05 149.94 463
2012 Colorado Embree 2.67 128.02 153.55 50.69 137.06 464
2009 Washington State Wulff 2.49 125.81 143.30 52.01 134.55 465
2008 Washington State Wulff 2.45 125.55 148.32 49.70 133.73 466

If the hypothesis that Apparent Talent is predictive of ultimate Team Quality holds, the relationship ought to be plain to see, without the use of fancy statistical sorcery, as we inspect the various slices of the distribution.

Have a look and draw your own conclusions. And please, feel free to discuss them in the comments section.

+2 Std Dev
& better
+1 Std Dev,
< +2 Std Dev
+0.5 Std Dev,
< +1 Std Dev
-0.5 Std Dev
to +0.5 Std Dev
-0.5 Std Dev,
> -1 Std Dev
-1 Std Dev,
> -2 Std Dev
-2 Std Dev
and Worse
Avg. Quality Composite 275.20 247.05 228.81 209.79 189.89 173.67 145.30
Average Win% 0.914 0.819 0.719 0.579 0.431 0.289 0.093
Number of Teams 13 56 69 183 69 69 7
% of All Observations 2.8% 12.0% 14.8% 39.3% 14.8% 14.8% 1.5%
Avg. Apparent Talent 3.57 3.30 3.02 2.91 2.73 2.60 2.56
Median Apparent Talent 3.61 3.39 3.00 2.87 2.67 2.61 2.49
Max Apparent Talent 4.07 4.11 3.80 4.07 3.80 3.48 2.81
Min Apparent Talent 2.99 2.37 2.27 2.04 2.14 2.03 2.32
X
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