College football F/+ picks: Week 11

Brett Deering

So my theory was that the New Method would improve and overtake the Old Method as the season progressed and teams separated from one another. That ... has not happened.

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • Week 9
    New: 26-24-4 (52%)
    Old: 25-24-4 (51%)
  • Week 10
    New: 22-27-1 (45%)
    Old: 24-24-1 (50%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 278-282-13 (50%)
    Old: 241-224-11 (52%)

The old method typically clocks in between about 52-54% for a given season, so I guess we're right on track for that again this year. It feels like there have been more key injuries in 2013, which would damage the numbers' overall rates of success (since they really don't take injuries into account), but that's a pure guess. There are injuries every year. Regardless, I guess 52% is better than your odds playing craps. So there's that.

NEW METHOD

Hell of a backdoor cover there, CMU.

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning
Pick
Tue 8:00 PM ESPNU Bowling Green at Miami-OH 24 Bowling Green by 17.7 (35.5 - 17.8) 88.9% Miami-OH
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 Ohio at Buffalo -4 Buffalo by 6.6 (34.5 - 27.9) 69.4% Buffalo
Wed 8:00 PM ESPN2 Central Michigan at Ball State -21 Ball State by 25.2 (44.3 - 19.2) 97.9% Ball State
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Oklahoma at Baylor -15 Baylor by 18.5 (45.4 - 27.0) 90.0% Baylor
Thu 7:30 PM ESPNU Troy at UL-Lafayette -14 UL-Lafayette by 16.5 (48.4 - 31.8) 87.3% UL-Lafayette
Thu 9:00 PM ESPN Oregon at Stanford 10.5 Stanford by 4.8 (27.1 - 22.3) 65.4% Stanford
Fri 8:30 PM ESPN2 Louisville at Connecticut 28 Louisville by 31.2 (35.5 - 4.3) 100.0% Louisville
Fri 9:00 PM ESPNU Air Force at New Mexico -3 New Mexico by 5.0 (48.2 - 43.2) 66.0% New Mexico
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Auburn at Tennessee 8 Auburn by 13.4 (30.5 - 17.1) 82.2% Auburn
Sat 12:00 PM ABC/ESPN3 Florida State at Wake Forest 35.5 Florida State by 33.9 (40.6 - 6.7) 100.0% Wake Forest
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Iowa at Purdue 15 Iowa by 22.3 (31.9 - 9.6) 94.9% Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM ABC/ESPN3 Kansas State at Texas Tech -3 Kansas State by 3.3 (34.0 - 30.7) 62.2% Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Missouri at Kentucky 14.5 Missouri by 23.2 (43.8 - 20.6) 95.9% Missouri
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Penn State at Minnesota -3 Minnesota by 8.4 (26.9 - 18.6) 73.0% Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 SMU at Cincinnati -9 Cincinnati by 5.4 (32.9 - 27.5) 66.9% SMU
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 TCU at Iowa State 7.5 TCU by 4.2 (20.1 - 15.9) 64.2% Iowa State
Sat 12:00 PM UAB at Marshall -23.5 Marshall by 29.5 (59.5 - 30.0) 100.0% Marshall
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Vanderbilt at Florida -10 Florida by 9.8 (23.2 - 13.4) 75.7% Vanderbilt
Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Western Kentucky at Army 7 Western Kentucky by 3.8 (34.7 - 31.0) 63.2% Army
Sat 12:21 PM ESPN3 Arkansas at Ole Miss -17 Ole Miss by 25.7 (41.1 - 15.4) 98.5% Ole Miss
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Appalachian State at Georgia -31.5 Georgia by 29.5 (46.4 - 16.9) 100.0% Appalachian State
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia at North Carolina -14 North Carolina by 11.5 (35.0 - 23.6) 78.9% Virginia
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan 3 Western Michigan by 1.9 (31.0 - 29.1) 58.9% Eastern Michigan
Sat 2:00 PM Tulane at UTSA -9 UTSA by 4.8 (26.5 - 21.7) 65.5% Tulane
Sat 3:00 PM Fox USC at California 17 USC by 26.9 (31.6 - 4.7) 99.5% USC
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at New Mexico State 24 Boston College by 19.7 (37.9 - 18.2) 91.7% New Mexico State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN BYU at Wisconsin -7.5 Wisconsin by 3.8 (21.6 - 17.8) 63.4% BYU
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Hawaii at Navy -17 Navy by 5.2 (29.7 - 24.5) 66.5% Hawaii
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Illinois at Indiana -10 Indiana by 10.6 (52.4 - 41.7) 77.3% Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Mississippi State at Texas A&M -19 Texas A&M by 17.4 (43.9 - 26.5) 88.5% Mississippi State
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Nebraska at Michigan -7 Michigan by 8.9 (32.8 - 23.9) 74.1% Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Nevada at Colorado State -9.5 Colorado State by 11.8 (43.3 - 31.5) 79.5% Colorado State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Syracuse at Maryland -6 Maryland by 6.7 (29.2 - 22.5) 69.6% Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at North Texas -25 North Texas by 26.6 (43.0 - 16.4) 99.3% North Texas
Sat 3:45 PM FS1 Tulsa at East Carolina -17.5 East Carolina by 24.9 (37.2 - 12.3) 97.7% East Carolina
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Arizona State at Utah 7 Arizona State by 5.4 (37.5 - 32.1) 66.8% Utah
Sat 4:00 PM Florida International at Middle Tennessee -18.5 Middle Tennessee by 21.2 (34.1 - 12.9) 93.6% Middle Tennessee
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Kansas at Oklahoma State -31 Oklahoma State by 31.5 (35.0 - 3.5) 100.0% Oklahoma State
Sat 4:00 PM ESPNU NC State at Duke -9 Duke by 19.5 (40.7 - 21.2) 91.4% Duke
Sat 4:30 PM ESPN3 UT Martin at Memphis -14.5 Memphis by 9.6 (22.3 - 12.7) 75.5% UT Martin
Sat 5:00 PM Old Dominion at Idaho 13 Old Dominion by 10.9 (29.0 - 18.1) 77.9% Idaho
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at UL-Monroe -5 Arkansas State by 0.3 (26.6 - 26.3) 55.1% Arkansas State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Houston at Central Florida -10.5 Central Florida by 17.9 (47.6 - 29.7) 89.3% Central Florida
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech -16 Louisiana Tech by 9.9 (30.5 - 20.6) 76.1% Southern Miss
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Texas at West Virginia 7 Texas by 9.1 (34.3 - 25.3) 74.4% Texas
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Virginia Tech at Miami-FL -7 Miami-FL by 0.3 (21.2 - 20.8) 55.1% Virginia Tech
Sat 8:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Washington -28 Washington by 29.5 (42.8 - 13.3) 100.0% Washington
Sat 8:00 PM CBS LSU at Alabama -13 Alabama by 18.9 (40.6 - 21.7) 90.7% Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Notre Dame at Pittsburgh 4 Notre Dame by 9.8 (32.8 - 23.0) 75.8% Notre Dame
Sat 8:00 PM ESPNU Utah State at UNLV 14 Utah State by 19.9 (32.9 - 13.1) 91.9% Utah State
Sat 10:00 PM ESPN UCLA at Arizona 1 Arizona by 2.6 (30.4 - 27.8) 60.5% Arizona
Sat 10:15 PM ESPN2 Fresno State at Wyoming 10 Fresno State by 6.6 (39.1 - 32.5) 69.4% Wyoming
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN San Diego State at San Jose State -7 San Jose State by 8.3 (35.0 - 26.6) 72.9% San Jose State

OLD (and probably better) METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM Bowling Green at Miami-OH 24 Bowling Green by 19.0 Miami-OH
Tue 8:00 PM Ohio at Buffalo -4 Buffalo by 6.4 Buffalo
Wed 8:00 PM Central Michigan at Ball State -21 Ball State by 25.6 Ball State
Thu 7:30 PM Oklahoma at Baylor -15 Baylor by 17.6 Baylor
Thu 7:30 PM Troy at UL-Lafayette -14 UL-Lafayette by 16.3 UL-Lafayette
Thu 9:00 PM Oregon at Stanford 10.5 Stanford by 4.5 Stanford
Fri 8:30 PM Louisville at Connecticut 28 Louisville by 33.4 Louisville
Fri 9:00 PM Air Force at New Mexico -3 New Mexico by 4.9 New Mexico
Sat 12:00 PM Auburn at Tennessee 8 Auburn by 14.9 Auburn
Sat 12:00 PM Florida State at Wake Forest 35.5 Florida State by 36.6 Florida State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Iowa at Purdue 15 Iowa by 23.6 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM Kansas State at Texas Tech -3 Kansas State by 3.5 Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM Missouri at Kentucky 14.5 Missouri by 24.7 Missouri
Sat 12:00 PM Penn State at Minnesota -3 Minnesota by 8.4 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM SMU at Cincinnati -9 Cincinnati by 5.7 SMU
Sat 12:00 PM TCU at Iowa State 7.5 TCU by 4.4 Iowa State
Sat 12:00 PM UAB at Marshall -23.5 Marshall by 26.4 Marshall
Sat 12:00 PM Vanderbilt at Florida -10 Florida by 10.6 Florida XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Western Kentucky at Army 7 Western Kentucky by 4.0 Army
Sat 12:21 PM Arkansas at Ole Miss -17 Ole Miss by 26.4 Ole Miss
Sat 12:30 PM Virginia at North Carolina -14 North Carolina by 11.2 Virginia
Sat 1:00 PM Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan 3 Western Michigan by 2.1 Eastern Michigan
Sat 2:00 PM Tulane at UTSA -9 UTSA by 5.2 Tulane
Sat 3:00 PM USC at California 17 USC by 29.7 USC
Sat 3:30 PM Boston College at New Mexico State 24 Boston College by 22.0 New Mexico State
Sat 3:30 PM BYU at Wisconsin -7.5 Wisconsin by 3.8 BYU
Sat 3:30 PM Hawaii at Navy -17 Navy by 5.5 Hawaii
Sat 3:30 PM Illinois at Indiana -10 Indiana by 10.8 Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM Mississippi State at Texas A&M -19 Texas A&M by 18.2 Mississippi State
Sat 3:30 PM Nebraska at Michigan -7 Michigan by 9.2 Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Nevada at Colorado State -9.5 Colorado State by 11.6 Colorado State
Sat 3:30 PM Syracuse at Maryland -6 Maryland by 6.7 Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at North Texas -25 North Texas by 27.5 North Texas
Sat 3:45 PM Tulsa at East Carolina -17.5 East Carolina by 23.2 East Carolina
Sat 4:00 PM Arizona State at Utah 7 Arizona State by 5.5 Utah
Sat 4:00 PM Florida International at Middle Tennessee -18.5 Middle Tennessee by 22.0 Middle Tennessee
Sat 4:00 PM Kansas at Oklahoma State -31 Oklahoma State by 30.2 Kansas XXX
Sat 4:00 PM NC State at Duke -9 Duke by 18.5 Duke
Sat 5:00 PM Old Dominion at Idaho 13 Old Dominion by 11.8 Idaho
Sat 7:00 PM Arkansas State at UL-Monroe -5 Arkansas State by 0.4 Arkansas State
Sat 7:00 PM Houston at Central Florida -10.5 Central Florida by 17.7 Central Florida
Sat 7:00 PM Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech -16 Louisiana Tech by 9.3 Southern Miss
Sat 7:00 PM Texas at West Virginia 7 Texas by 9.2 Texas
Sat 7:00 PM Virginia Tech at Miami-FL -7 Miami-FL by 0.3 Virginia Tech
Sat 8:00 PM Colorado at Washington -28 Washington by 31.2 Washington
Sat 8:00 PM LSU at Alabama -13 Alabama by 20.5 Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM Notre Dame at Pittsburgh 4 Notre Dame by 10.5 Notre Dame
Sat 8:00 PM Utah State at UNLV 14 Utah State by 21.0 Utah State
Sat 10:00 PM UCLA at Arizona 1 Arizona by 2.3 Arizona
Sat 10:15 PM Fresno State at Wyoming 10 Fresno State by 6.7 Wyoming
Sat 10:30 PM San Diego State at San Jose State -7 San Jose State by 8.6 San Jose State
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