College football F/+ picks: Week 13

"Keep right on doubting us, F/+." - Kirk Irwin

Football Outsiders picks and projections for Week 13 of the 2013 college football season.

Had to figure Week 11 was too good to be true. In Week 12, we saw some predictable regression toward (and past) the mean, huh?

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • Week 9
    New: 26-24-4 (52%)
    Old: 25-24-4 (51%)
  • Week 10
    New: 22-27-1 (45%)
    Old: 24-24-1 (50%)
  • Week 11
    New: 32-20-1 (61%)
    Old: 31-20-1 (61%)
  • Week 12
    New: 24-27 (47%)
    Old: 23-27 (46%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 332-329-14 (50%)
    Old: 295-271-12 (52%)

Including this week's games, the picks are now 3-7 on mid-week MACTION over these last few weeks. MACTION is too strong for numbers, obviously. But you didn't need me to tell you that.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning outright
Pick
Tue 8:00 PM ESPNU Buffalo at Miami-OH 24.5 Buffalo by 20.9 (31.8 - 10.9) 93.2% Miami-OH
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 Kent State at Ohio -6.5 Ohio by 7.0 (35.2 - 28.2) 70.3% Ohio
Wed 8:00 PM ESPN2 Northern Illinois at Toledo 3 Toledo by 5.1 (33.1 - 28.0) 66.2% Toledo
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Rice at UAB 19 Rice by 20.8 (48.4 - 27.6) 93.1% Rice
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Rutgers at Central Florida -17 Central Florida by 25.7 (40.7 - 15.0) 98.5% Central Florida
Thu 9:30 PM ESPNU UNLV at Air Force -1 Air Force by 0.4 (38.9 - 38.4) 55.3% UNLV
Fri 9:30 PM ESPN2 Navy at San Jose State -2 Navy by 3.4 (43.1 - 39.6) 62.5% Navy
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Cincinnati at Houston -3 Houston by 12.4 (36.9 - 24.5) 80.6% Houston
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Duke at Wake Forest 5.5 Duke by 11.8 (29.1 - 17.3) 79.4% Duke
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Illinois at Purdue 7 Illinois by 12.4 (37.4 - 24.9) 80.6% Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Memphis at Louisville -24.5 Louisville by 24.3 (30.2 - 5.9) 97.1% Memphis
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Michigan at Iowa -6 Iowa by 3.0 (23.2 - 20.2) 61.4% Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Michigan State at Northwestern 7 Michigan State by 10.5 (21.4 - 10.9) 77.1% Michigan State
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Oklahoma at Kansas State -4 Kansas State by 6.6 (32.7 - 26.2) 69.3% Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Old Dominion at North Carolina -17 North Carolina by 18.6 (38.9 - 20.3) 90.2% North Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 The Citadel at Clemson -39.5 Clemson by 32.2 (43.5 - 11.3) 99.0% The Citadel
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Virginia at Miami-FL -20 Miami-FL by 20.5 (43.2 - 22.7) 92.7% Miami-FL
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network Mississippi State at Arkansas 1.5 Mississippi State by 7.5 (29.7 - 22.2) 71.2% Mississippi State
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 East Carolina at NC State 7 East Carolina by 13.5 (32.1 - 18.6) 82.4% East Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Pittsburgh at Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh by 7.6 (26.4 - 18.9) 71.4% Pittsburgh
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan 24.5 Bowling Green by 24.0 (49.4 - 25.5) 96.7% Eastern Michigan
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Coastal Carolina at South Carolina -34.5 South Carolina by 28.2 (41.6 - 13.5) 99.0% Coastal Carolina
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Central Michigan -10 Central Michigan by 4.3 (29.2 - 24.9) 64.5% Massachusetts
Sat 1:30 PM ESPN3 Alabama A&M at Georgia Tech -51.5 Georgia Tech by 37.7 (48.6 - 10.9) 99.0% Alabama A&M
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Chattanooga at Alabama -49 Alabama by 45.6 (44.1 - -1.4) 99.0% Chattanooga
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia Southern at Florida -27.5 Florida by 16.4 (24.4 - 8.0) 87.0% Georgia Southern
Sat 2:00 PM Hawaii at Wyoming -7 Hawaii by 1.6 (25.3 - 23.7) 58.2% Hawaii
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Arkansas State -23.5 Arkansas State by 19.0 (40.7 - 21.7) 90.8% Georgia State
Sat 3:00 PM New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic -22 Florida Atlantic by 20.0 (32.6 - 12.6) 92.1% New Mexico State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Maryland -1 Boston College by 0.9 (28.6 - 27.8) 56.4% Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM NBC BYU at Notre Dame 1 BYU by 0.6 (25.9 - 25.4) 55.7% Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Colorado State at Utah State -7.5 Utah State by 13.2 (29.6 - 16.4) 81.9% Utah State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Idaho at Florida State -58 Florida State by 56.6 (52.9 - -3.7) 99.0% Idaho
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Indiana at Ohio State -34.5 Ohio State by 24.6 (57.0 - 32.4) 97.4% Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss 23 Middle Tennessee by 16.2 (31.4 - 15.2) 86.7% Southern Miss
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Nebraska at Penn State -2 Nebraska by 6.3 (30.8 - 24.5) 68.8% Nebraska
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Oregon at Arizona 21 Oregon by 18.1 (44.2 - 26.1) 89.5% Arizona
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Texas A&M at LSU -4.5 LSU by 1.0 (48.0 - 47.0) 56.8% Texas A&M
Sat 3:30 PM Pac-12 Utah at Washington State -1.5 Utah by 9.7 (31.4 - 21.7) 75.6% Utah
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at Tulane -17 Tulane by 17.0 (35.5 - 18.5) 87.9% UTEP
Sat 3:30 PM UTSA at North Texas -8 North Texas by 11.0 (27.3 - 16.2) 78.1% North Texas
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Wisconsin at Minnesota 16.5 Wisconsin by 16.5 (32.2 - 15.7) 87.2% Wisconsin
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 California at Stanford -31.5 Stanford by 45.4 (46.6 - 1.3) 99.0% Stanford
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News New Mexico at Fresno State -31 Fresno State by 23.8 (54.4 - 30.6) 96.5% New Mexico
Sat 6:00 PM Marshall at Florida International 33 Marshall by 33.2 (50.1 - 16.8) 99.0% Marshall
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Arizona State at UCLA 3 Arizona State by 5.5 (33.1 - 27.6) 67.1% Arizona State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Connecticut at Temple -8.5 Temple by 2.0 (24.3 - 22.3) 59.1% Connecticut
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Kentucky at Georgia -24 Georgia by 26.6 (50.5 - 24.0) 99.0% Georgia
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 SMU at South Florida 4 SMU by 2.5 (27.0 - 24.5) 60.4% South Florida
Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Tulsa at Louisiana Tech 3 Tulsa by 7.3 (31.7 - 24.4) 70.9% Tulsa
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at South Alabama -3.5 South Alabama by 15.2 (36.8 - 21.6) 85.1% South Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Vanderbilt at Tennessee -3 Vanderbilt by 6.1 (30.0 - 24.0) 68.3% Vanderbilt
Sat 7:00 PM LHN Western Kentucky at Texas State 4 Western Kentucky by 5.9 (21.6 - 15.7) 67.9% Western Kentucky
Sat 7:45 PM ESPN Missouri at Ole Miss 3 Missouri by 2.0 (26.2 - 24.3) 59.1% Ole Miss
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Baylor at Oklahoma State 9.5 Baylor by 12.2 (37.7 - 25.5) 80.3% Baylor
Sat 8:00 PM FS1 Kansas at Iowa State -6 Iowa State by 7.8 (24.5 - 16.7) 71.8% Iowa State
Sat 9:30 PM Pac-12 USC at Colorado 22 USC by 29.2 (35.8 - 6.6) 99.0% USC
Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Boise State at San Diego State 6.5 Boise State by 12.6 (32.3 - 19.7) 80.9% Boise State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN2 Washington at Oregon State N/A Washington by 4.2 (33.3 - 29.1) 64.2% ???

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM Buffalo at Miami-OH 24.5 Buffalo by 20.7 Miami-OH
Tue 8:00 PM Kent State at Ohio -6.5 Ohio by 6.8 Ohio
Wed 8:00 PM Northern Illinois at Toledo 3 Toledo by 4.9 Toledo
Thu 7:30 PM Rice at UAB 19 Rice by 18.8 UAB XXX
Thu 7:30 PM Rutgers at Central Florida -17 Central Florida by 27.4 Central Florida
Thu 9:30 PM UNLV at Air Force -1 Air Force by 0.5 UNLV
Fri 9:30 PM Navy at San Jose State -2 Navy by 3.4 Navy
Sat 12:00 PM Cincinnati at Houston -3 Houston by 11.8 Houston
Sat 12:00 PM Duke at Wake Forest 5.5 Duke by 11.4 Duke
Sat 12:00 PM Illinois at Purdue 7 Illinois by 12.3 Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM Memphis at Louisville -24.5 Louisville by 25.1 Louisville XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Michigan at Iowa -6 Iowa by 3.3 Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM Michigan State at Northwestern 7 Michigan State by 9.7 Michigan State
Sat 12:00 PM Oklahoma at Kansas State -4 Kansas State by 6.8 Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM Old Dominion at North Carolina -17 North Carolina by 17.8 North Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM Virginia at Miami-FL -20 Miami-FL by 20.4 Miami-FL
Sat 12:21 PM Mississippi State at Arkansas 1.5 Mississippi State by 7.7 Mississippi State
Sat 12:30 PM East Carolina at NC State 7 East Carolina by 12.4 East Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM Pittsburgh at Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh by 7.1 Pittsburgh
Sat 1:00 PM Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan 24.5 Bowling Green by 25.1 Bowling Green XXX
Sat 1:00 PM Massachusetts at Central Michigan -10 Central Michigan by 4.6 Massachusetts
Sat 2:00 PM Hawaii at Wyoming -7 Hawaii by 1.5 Hawaii
Sat 3:00 PM Georgia State at Arkansas State -23.5 Arkansas State by 18.3 Georgia State
Sat 3:00 PM New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic -22 Florida Atlantic by 21.0 New Mexico State
Sat 3:30 PM Boston College at Maryland -1 Boston College by 0.8 Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM BYU at Notre Dame 1 BYU by 0.4 Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM Colorado State at Utah State -7.5 Utah State by 14.1 Utah State
Sat 3:30 PM Idaho at Florida State -58 Florida State by 59.7 Florida State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Indiana at Ohio State -34.5 Ohio State by 23.2 Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss 23 Middle Tennessee by 16.6 Southern Miss
Sat 3:30 PM Nebraska at Penn State -2 Nebraska by 5.6 Nebraska
Sat 3:30 PM Oregon at Arizona 21 Oregon by 15.1 Arizona
Sat 3:30 PM Texas A&M at LSU -4.5 LSU by 1.1 Texas A&M
Sat 3:30 PM Utah at Washington State -1.5 Utah by 9.8 Utah
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at Tulane -17 Tulane by 17.7 Tulane XXX
Sat 3:30 PM UTSA at North Texas -8 North Texas by 11.1 North Texas
Sat 3:30 PM Wisconsin at Minnesota 16.5 Wisconsin by 17.0 Wisconsin
Sat 4:00 PM California at Stanford -31.5 Stanford by 46.3 Stanford
Sat 4:00 PM New Mexico at Fresno State -31 Fresno State by 22.8 New Mexico
Sat 6:00 PM Marshall at Florida International 33 Marshall by 28.7 Florida International XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Arizona State at UCLA 3 Arizona State by 4.8 Arizona State
Sat 7:00 PM Connecticut at Temple -8.5 Temple by 2.2 Connecticut
Sat 7:00 PM Kentucky at Georgia -24 Georgia by 28.1 Georgia
Sat 7:00 PM SMU at South Florida 4 SMU by 2.5 South Florida
Sat 7:00 PM Tulsa at Louisiana Tech 3 Tulsa by 5.8 Tulsa
Sat 7:00 PM UL-Monroe at South Alabama -3.5 South Alabama by 14.5 South Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM Vanderbilt at Tennessee -3 Vanderbilt by 5.9 Vanderbilt
Sat 7:00 PM Western Kentucky at Texas State 4 Western Kentucky by 6.2 Western Kentucky
Sat 7:45 PM Missouri at Ole Miss 3 Missouri by 1.8 Ole Miss
Sat 8:00 PM Baylor at Oklahoma State 9.5 Baylor by 10.5 Baylor
Sat 8:00 PM Kansas at Iowa State -6 Iowa State by 7.6 Iowa State
Sat 9:30 PM USC at Colorado 22 USC by 30.4 USC
Sat 10:30 PM Boise State at San Diego State 6.5 Boise State by 12.7 Boise State
Sat 10:30 PM Washington at Oregon State N/A Washington by 4.1 ??? ???

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