HuskerMath's Week 12 picks and expected wins

Gregory Shamus

Modeled expected regular season wins and picks for Week 12. The model likes Michigan State over Nebraska for the Big Ten Legends semi-final and Georgia Tech over Clemson (gulp).

FBS expected wins after Week 11

The utility of expected wins is diminishing as we approach the end of the college football regular season. Still, I'll keep posting these through the end of the regular season. Once we pass the Army-Navy game (Go Army! Beat Navy!), I'll do a recap of how teams' expected win totals moved from week to week. For gee-whiz information, I added the pre-Week 1 expected win totals. You can think of those in comparison to current wins and expected wins as improvement/decline from last season to this, as the predictions preseason were based completely on last season's scoring offense and defense numbers.

Week 12 Picks

Last week I wrote this:

There are a lot of very close games this week. I expect that the model's correct pick rate will not be the best this week. These .55-.45 games are really tossups.

Amazingly, at 81.1%, last week was my second-best week for accuracy all season, falling just one game short of the Week 2 mark of 82.4%.

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