Study Hall: Nebraska 17, Michigan 13

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

Nebraska twice lost fumbles pretty deep in its own territory. On average, those turnovers would have been worth about 8.5 equivalent points; after those turnovers, Michigan went three-and-out twice and attempted two field goals, missing one. Potential value of turnovers: 8.5 points. Actual result of turnovers: 3 points. In a four-point loss.

Oh, and Michigan? Your success rate isn't supposed to be higher on passing downs than standard downs. It's supposed to work the other way around. Stop giving away first down.

Actually, just stop running altogether. You can't do it, so just stop.

Worst single-game Line Yardage average in 2013:
1. Michigan (vs. Michigan State): -0.53
2. Oregon State (vs. SDSU): 0.11
3. Michigan (vs. Nebraska): 0.47
4. Miami (vs. Va. Tech): 0.57
5. North Texas (vs. Georgia): 0.58

Georgia State got a better push against Alabama than Michigan got against Nebraska. Again...

Nebraska 17, Michigan 13

Nebraska Michigan Nebraska Michigan
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 43.9% 38.1% Success Rate 38.6% 27.0%
Leverage % 66.7% 58.7% PPP 0.38 0.17
S&P 0.764 0.440
TOTAL
EqPts 25.3 16.3 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 36.4% 30.2% Success Rate 31.8% 34.6%
Close PPP 0.38 0.26 PPP 0.39 0.38
Close S&P 0.747 0.560 S&P 0.712 0.731
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 13.3 2.0 Number 2 0
Close Success Rate 33.3% 6.9% Turnover Pts 8.5 0.0
Close PPP 0.32 0.07 Turnover Pts Margin -8.5 +8.5
Close S&P 0.650 0.137
Line Yards/carry 2.50 0.47 Q1 S&P 0.962 0.556
Q2 S&P 0.228 0.424
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.525 0.825
EqPts 12.0 14.3 Q4 S&P 0.933 0.341
Close Success Rate 41.7% 50.0%
Close PPP 0.50 0.42 1st Down S&P 0.740 0.610
Close S&P 0.916 0.921 2nd Down S&P 0.662 0.641
SD/PD Sack Rate 26.7% / 15.8% 0.0% / 9.1% 3rd Down S&P 0.675 0.375
Projected Pt. Margin: Nebraska +0.4 | Actual Pt. Margin: Nebraska +4

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