Week 6 Recap and Week 7 Picks

HuskerMath offers a mea culpa for using bad data.

Well, despite probably hundreds of hours of development time, Weeks 4-6 of model predictions had a simple error that based the predictions on 50% of last year's data and 50% this year's data. I caught the mistake when I noticed that Baylor was predicted to lose to Kansas State by a wide margin; not that this isn't possible ... it just didn't pass the common sense test. When I identified the error and reran the model, the results were more in line with what one would expect.

This error tended to minimize the best teams' expected wins and increase the worst teams expected wins. For teams like Louisville, the difference in expected win counts from Weeks 6 to 7 are significant.  For other teams, it isn't as noticeable.

Click on a team to get a close up graph of that team's expected wins over time in the lower chart, or use the filters between the charts to sort or filter on conference or team.

Week 7 Picks

Arizona USC 0.560 0.440
Rutgers Louisville 0.108 0.892
San Diego State Air Force 0.428 0.572
Temple Cincinnati 0.099 0.901
Akron Northern Illinois 0.181 0.819
Alabama Kentucky 0.615 0.385
UAB Florida International 0.663 0.337
Baylor Kansas State 0.671 0.329
Boise State Utah State 0.338 0.662
Boston College Clemson 0.143 0.857
Bowling Green Mississippi State 0.327 0.673
Buffalo Western Michigan 0.704 0.296
California UCLA 0.143 0.857
Central Michigan Ohio 0.103 0.897
Colorado Arizona State 0.215 0.785
East Carolina Tulane 0.407 0.593
Eastern Michigan Army 0.228 0.772
Florida LSU 0.435 0.565
Georgia Tech BYU 0.404 0.596
Hawai'i UNLV 0.343 0.657
Idaho Arkansas State 0.141 0.859
Indiana Michigan State 0.373 0.627
Iowa State Texas Tech 0.224 0.776
Kansas TCU 0.308 0.692
Kent State Ball State 0.185 0.815
Louisiana-Monroe Texas State 0.158 0.842
Marshall Florida Atlantic 0.527 0.473
Memphis Houston 0.160 0.840
Miami (Ohio) Massachusetts 0.337 0.663
Michigan Penn State 0.461 0.539
Middle Tennessee North Texas 0.256 0.744
Missouri Georgia 0.571 0.429
Navy Duke 0.449 0.551
Nebraska Purdue 0.943 0.057
New Mexico Wyoming 0.254 0.746
Northwestern Wisconsin 0.256 0.744
Oklahoma Texas 0.576 0.424
Oregon Washington 0.610 0.390
Oregon State Washington State 0.414 0.586
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 0.360 0.640
Rice UTSA 0.449 0.551
San Jose State Colorado State 0.368 0.632
South Carolina Arkansas 0.414 0.586
South Florida Connecticut 0.273 0.727
Stanford Utah 0.599 0.401
Syracuse North Carolina State 0.429 0.571
Texas A&M Mississippi 0.503 0.497
Troy Georgia State 0.597 0.403
Tulsa UTEP 0.328 0.672
Virginia Maryland 0.355 0.645
Western Carolina Auburn 0.000 1.000

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