College football F/+ picks: Week 10

Allan Henry-US PRESSWIRE

Picks and projections for Week 10 of the 2013 college football season.

I mean ... hey ... I guess there's value in being able to pick games almost exactly as well as Vegas does, right? Right? Maybe? 50% is good, right? Better than 40%?

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • Week 9
    New: 26-24-4 (52%)
    Old: 25-24-4 (51%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 256-255-13 (50%)
    Old: 217-200-11 (52%)

Meanwhile, I think we can probably discontinue to the HYBRID approach. The two methods are agreeing on most games now, so it kind of ruins the point. Before the Week 8 FULL NUMBERS BLOWOUT, however, there might be some value in that.

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
    Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
    Week 6: 20-19 (51%)
    Week 7: 19-16-1 (54%)
    Week 8: 21-22-1 (49%)
    Week 9: 24-24-3 (50%)
    TOTAL: 163-138-7 (54%)

It's nice being 0-1 for the week before you even get the picks posted...Memphis' defense didn't really show like I figured it would last night.

(And if you bet any money whatsoever on tonight's ASU-Wazzu game -- a night game ... with students off ... on Halloween ... in the middle of nowhere ... and it's cold... -- you're insane.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning
Pick
Wed 8:00 PM ESPN2 Cincinnati at Memphis -3.0 Memphis by 8.6 (21.5 - 12.9) 73.4% Memphis
Thu 7:00 PM ESPN South Florida at Houston -19.0 Houston by 24.6 (38.5 - 13.9) 97.4% Houston
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Rice at North Texas -4.0 North Texas by 10.2 (30.2 - 20.0) 76.5% North Texas
Thu 7:30 PM ESPNU UL-Monroe at Troy -3.0 Troy by 3.3 (35.3 - 32.0) 62.2% Troy
Thu 10:30 PM ESPN Arizona State at Washington State 12.0 Arizona State by 22.9 (45.2 - 22.3) 95.6% Arizona State
Fri 9:00 PM ESPN2 USC at Oregon State -3.5 USC by 6.9 (24.4 - 17.5) 70.1% USC
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Army at Air Force 0.0 Army by 5.2 (48.7 - 43.6) 66.3% Army
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Illinois at Penn State -10.0 Penn State by 5.7 (33.4 - 27.8) 67.4% Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts 23.0 Northern Illinois by 20.6 (37.0 - 16.5) 92.8% Massachusetts
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Ohio State at Purdue 32.0 Ohio State by 36.1 (49.0 - 12.9) 99.0% Ohio State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Temple at Rutgers -14.0 Rutgers by 14.6 (34.5 - 19.8) 84.3% Rutgers
Sat 12:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 Virginia Tech at Boston College 5.0 Virginia Tech by 19.0 (22.4 - 3.5) 90.7% Virginia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 Wisconsin at Iowa 10.0 Wisconsin by 6.3 (28.2 - 21.9) 68.7% Iowa
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network Mississippi State at South Carolina -12.0 South Carolina by 17.0 (34.7 - 17.6) 88.0% South Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 North Carolina at NC State 4.0 North Carolina by 11.4 (39.2 - 27.8) 78.8% North Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM CBSSN Southern Miss at Marshall -31.0 Marshall by 29.9 (46.5 - 16.6) 99.0% Southern Miss
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Wake Forest at Syracuse -3.0 Wake Forest by 0.7 (24.5 - 23.8) 56.0% Wake Forest
Sat 1:00 PM FS1 Middle Tennessee at UAB 4.0 Middle Tennessee by 13.3 (43.4 - 30.0) 82.2% Middle Tennessee
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Western Kentucky at Georgia State 20.0 Western Kentucky by 17.2 (33.4 - 16.2) 88.2% Georgia State
Sat 3:30 PM Pac-12 Arizona at California 16.0 Arizona by 25.8 (43.7 - 17.9) 98.5% Arizona
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Clemson at Virginia 17.0 Clemson by 12.0 (30.2 - 18.3) 79.8% Virginia
Sat 3:30 PM FS1 Iowa State at Kansas State -17.0 Kansas State by 15.3 (35.1 - 19.8) 85.4% Iowa State
Sat 3:30 PM LHN Kansas at Texas -28.0 Texas by 23.8 (37.1 - 13.4) 96.5% Kansas
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Kent State at Akron -1.0 Akron by 7.0 (34.6 - 27.5) 70.3% Akron
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Michigan at Michigan State -6.0 Michigan State by 6.0 (19.2 - 13.2) 68.2% Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Minnesota at Indiana -10.0 Indiana by 7.8 (46.1 - 38.3) 71.8% Minnesota
Sat 3:30 PM NBC Navy at Notre Dame -17.0 Notre Dame by 21.4 (42.3 - 20.9) 93.9% Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Northwestern at Nebraska -7.0 Nebraska by 4.0 (31.4 - 27.4) 63.9% Northwestern
Sat 3:30 PM UTSA at Tulsa -3.0 Tulsa by 1.1 (23.9 - 22.9) 56.9% UTSA
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU West Virginia at TCU -14.0 TCU by 11.5 (22.2 - 10.6) 79.0% West Virginia
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Florida at Georgia -3.0 Georgia by 6.1 (24.7 - 18.6) 68.4% Georgia
Sat 4:00 PM CBSSN Hawaii at Utah State -23.0 Utah State by 17.2 (23.2 - 6.0) 88.2% Hawaii
Sat 4:00 PM San Jose State at UNLV 4.0 San Jose State by 6.0 (37.7 - 31.8) 68.1% San Jose State
Sat 5:00 PM New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette -32.0 UL-Lafayette by 23.4 (39.6 - 16.2) 96.1% New Mexico State
Sat 5:00 PM Texas State at Idaho 10.5 Texas State by 7.9 (19.6 - 11.7) 72.1% Idaho
Sat 5:00 PM Tulane at Florida Atlantic -3.5 Tulane by 1.3 (21.9 - 20.5) 57.5% Tulane
Sat 6:00 PM ESPN2 Auburn at Arkansas 7.5 Auburn by 18.0 (33.4 - 15.4) 89.4% Auburn
Sat 6:00 PM East Carolina at Florida International 24.0 East Carolina by 33.7 (39.7 - 6.0) 99.0% East Carolina
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Toledo -31.0 Toledo by 29.0 (49.4 - 20.5) 99.0% Eastern Michigan
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Oklahoma State at Texas Tech -3.0 Oklahoma State by 2.8 (31.8 - 29.0) 61.1% Oklahoma State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech -10.0 Georgia Tech by 14.0 (37.2 - 23.2) 83.3% Georgia Tech
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Tennessee at Missouri -10.0 Missouri by 22.4 (36.5 - 14.2) 95.0% Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at South Alabama -3.5 South Alabama by 17.2 (42.4 - 25.2) 88.2% South Alabama
Sat 7:30 PM FS1 Colorado at UCLA -26.5 UCLA by 28.8 (37.1 - 8.4) 99.0% UCLA
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Alabama State at Kentucky -27.5 Kentucky by 11.9 (39.0 - 27.1) 79.6% Alabama State
Sat 8:00 PM CBSSN Boise State at Colorado State 7.0 Boise State by 3.8 (32.5 - 28.7) 63.3% Colorado State
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Miami-FL at Florida State -22.0 Florida State by 15.4 (38.4 - 23.0) 85.6% Miami-FL
Sat 8:00 PM New Mexico at San Diego State -15.0 San Diego State by 7.3 (30.4 - 23.1) 70.9% New Mexico
Sat 9:00 PM ESPN2 UTEP at Texas A&M -46.0 Texas A&M by 39.6 (70.6 - 31.0) 99.0% UTEP
Sat 10:30 PM ESPNU Nevada at Fresno State -20.5 Fresno State by 21.4 (57.6 - 36.2) 93.9% Fresno State

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Wed 8:00 PM Cincinnati at Memphis -3.0 Memphis by 9.5 Memphis
Thu 7:00 PM South Florida at Houston -19.0 Houston by 24.4 Houston
Thu 7:30 PM Rice at North Texas -4.0 North Texas by 9.8 North Texas
Thu 7:30 PM UL-Monroe at Troy -3.0 Troy by 3.0 Troy
Thu 10:30 PM Arizona State at Washington State 12.0 Arizona State by 23.3 Arizona State
Fri 9:00 PM USC at Oregon State -3.5 USC by 7.7 USC
Sat 12:00 PM Army at Air Force 0.0 Army by 5.2 Army
Sat 12:00 PM Illinois at Penn State -10.0 Penn State by 5.7 Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM Northern Illinois at Massachusetts 23.0 Northern Illinois by 21.4 Massachusetts
Sat 12:00 PM Ohio State at Purdue 32.0 Ohio State by 37.4 Ohio State
Sat 12:00 PM Temple at Rutgers -14.0 Rutgers by 16.9 Rutgers
Sat 12:00 PM Virginia Tech at Boston College 5.0 Virginia Tech by 20.5 Virginia Tech
Sat 12:00 PM Wisconsin at Iowa 10.0 Wisconsin by 7.2 Iowa
Sat 12:21 PM Mississippi State at South Carolina -12.0 South Carolina by 19.2 South Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM North Carolina at NC State 4.0 North Carolina by 11.3 North Carolina
Sat 12:30 PM Southern Miss at Marshall -31.0 Marshall by 28.4 Southern Miss
Sat 12:30 PM Wake Forest at Syracuse -3.0 Wake Forest by 0.9 Wake Forest
Sat 1:00 PM Middle Tennessee at UAB 4.0 Middle Tennessee by 14.2 Middle Tennessee
Sat 1:00 PM Western Kentucky at Georgia State 20.0 Western Kentucky by 18.9 Georgia State
Sat 3:30 PM Arizona at California 16.0 Arizona by 25.6 Arizona
Sat 3:30 PM Clemson at Virginia 17.0 Clemson by 11.7 Virginia
Sat 3:30 PM Iowa State at Kansas State -17.0 Kansas State by 16.6 Iowa State
Sat 3:30 PM Kansas at Texas -28.0 Texas by 24.6 Kansas
Sat 3:30 PM Kent State at Akron -1.0 Akron by 7.1 Akron
Sat 3:30 PM Michigan at Michigan State -6.0 Michigan State by 6.4 Michigan State
Sat 3:30 PM Minnesota at Indiana -10.0 Indiana by 8.0 Minnesota
Sat 3:30 PM Navy at Notre Dame -17.0 Notre Dame by 23.5 Notre Dame
Sat 3:30 PM Northwestern at Nebraska -7.0 Nebraska by 3.8 Northwestern
Sat 3:30 PM UTSA at Tulsa -3.0 Tulsa by 0.9 UTSA
Sat 3:30 PM West Virginia at TCU -14.0 TCU by 11.6 West Virginia
Sat 3:30 PM Florida at Georgia -3.0 Georgia by 10.5 Georgia
Sat 4:00 PM Hawaii at Utah State -23.0 Utah State by 18.4 Hawaii
Sat 4:00 PM San Jose State at UNLV 4.0 San Jose State by 6.6 San Jose State
Sat 5:00 PM New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette -32.0 UL-Lafayette by 26.2 New Mexico State
Sat 5:00 PM Texas State at Idaho 10.5 Texas State by 9.3 Idaho
Sat 5:00 PM Tulane at Florida Atlantic -3.5 Tulane by 1.7 Tulane
Sat 6:00 PM Auburn at Arkansas 7.5 Auburn by 21.4 Auburn
Sat 6:00 PM East Carolina at Florida International 24.0 East Carolina by 35.2 East Carolina
Sat 7:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Toledo -31.0 Toledo by 31.2 Toledo XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Oklahoma State at Texas Tech -3.0 Oklahoma State by 2.9 Oklahoma State
Sat 7:00 PM Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech -10.0 Georgia Tech by 14.4 Georgia Tech
Sat 7:00 PM Tennessee at Missouri -10.0 Missouri by 22.8 Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM Arkansas State at South Alabama -3.5 South Alabama by 17.5 South Alabama
Sat 7:30 PM Colorado at UCLA -26.5 UCLA by 29.2 UCLA
Sat 8:00 PM Boise State at Colorado State 7.0 Boise State by 4.5 Colorado State
Sat 8:00 PM Miami-FL at Florida State -22.0 Florida State by 17.0 Miami-FL
Sat 8:00 PM New Mexico at San Diego State -15.0 San Diego State by 7.7 New Mexico
Sat 9:00 PM UTEP at Texas A&M -46.0 Texas A&M by 41.2 UTEP
Sat 10:30 PM Nevada at Fresno State -20.5 Fresno State by 19.7 Nevada XXX

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