College football F/+ picks: Week 6

Stephen Dunn

Picks and projections for Week 6 of the college football season.

The lesson: old is always better than new.

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 153-157-7 (49%)
    Old: 116-102-5 (53%)

The idea was that Old Method would start out better, and New Method would take over once teams began to differentiate themselves a bit. One problem: only a few have differentiated themselves, and Old Method has outright smoked New Method the last two weeks.

BUT...

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
    Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
    TOTAL: 79-57-2 (58%)

..that's still intriguing.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Texas at Iowa State 8.5 Iowa State by 2.5 (35.5 - 33.0) 60.3% Iowa State
Thu 7:30 PM ESPNU Western Kentucky at UL-Monroe 7 Western Kentucky by 9.1 (30.3 - 21.2) 74.5% Western Kentucky
Thu 10:00 PM FS1 UCLA at Utah 6 Utah by 2.1 (28.0 - 25.9) 59.5% Utah
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Fri 8:00 PM CBSSN BYU at Utah State -6.5 Utah State by 5.1 (24.2 - 19.1) 66.2% BYU
Fri 9:00 PM ESPN Nevada at San Diego State -6 San Diego State by 10.2 (32.7 - 22.5) 76.6% San Diego State
Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
Sat 11:30 AM CBS Air Force at Navy -11.5 Navy by 15.9 (42.1 - 26.2) 86.2% Navy
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Virginia -5.5 Virginia by 4.2 (23.0 - 18.8) 64.2% Ball State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Buffalo -14 Buffalo by 12.0 (30.4 - 18.4) 79.8% Eastern Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Illinois at Nebraska -10 Nebraska by 2.7 (45.0 - 42.3) 60.8% Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Louisville at Temple 34 Louisville by 21.6 (33.9 - 12.3) 94.0% Temple
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Maryland at Florida State -16 Florida State by 13.0 (35.3 - 22.3) 81.6% Maryland
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Michigan State at Iowa 1 Iowa by 1.1 (4.2 - 3.1) 56.9% Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Penn State at Indiana 3.5 Penn State by 0.1 (24.6 - 24.4) 54.5% Indiana
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Rutgers at SMU 5 Rutgers by 4.0 (24.7 - 20.7) 63.8% SMU
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Texas Tech at Kansas 17.5 Texas Tech by 14.3 (33.9 - 19.6) 83.7% Kansas
Sat 12:21 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Alabama -55 Alabama by 39.5 (43.2 - 3.7) 100.0% Georgia State
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 North Carolina at Virginia Tech -7.5 Virginia Tech by 15.7 (29.4 - 13.7) 86.0% Virginia Tech
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Army at Boston College -11.5 Boston College by 6.5 (33.1 - 26.6) 69.2% Army
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Central Michigan at Miami-OH 3 Central Michigan by 0.4 (21.4 - 21.0) 55.3% Miami-OH
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Troy -3.5 South Alabama by 8.6 (36.5 - 28.0) 73.4% South Alabama
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Akron 5 Ohio by 1.4 (31.0 - 29.7) 57.6% Akron
Sat 2:00 PM UTSA at Marshall -14 Marshall by 8.9 (38.2 - 29.3) 74.1% UTSA
Sat 3:00 PM Florida Atlantic at UAB -5 UAB by 0.3 (24.0 - 23.7) 55.0% Florida Atlantic
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Toledo -21 Toledo by 16.4 (41.6 - 25.2) 87.0% Western Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Clemson at Syracuse 14 Clemson by 6.5 (36.7 - 30.1) 69.3% Syracuse
Sat 3:30 PM East Carolina at Middle Tennessee 7.5 East Carolina by 9.3 (33.2 - 23.9) 74.8% East Carolina
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Georgia at Tennessee 10 Georgia by 5.2 (34.8 - 29.6) 66.4% Tennessee
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Georgia Tech at Miami-FL -6 Miami-FL by 11.8 (41.6 - 29.8) 79.4% Miami-FL
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Kansas State at Oklahoma State -14 Oklahoma State by 13.9 (31.4 - 17.5) 83.1% Kansas State
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Bowling Green -25 Bowling Green by 20.5 (39.9 - 19.4) 92.7% Massachusetts
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Minnesota at Michigan -19.5 Michigan by 11.4 (32.3 - 20.9) 78.7% Minnesota
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 NC State at Wake Forest 8.5 NC State by 7.4 (27.5 - 20.2) 71.0% Wake Forest
Sat 3:30 PM North Texas at Tulane 3 Tulane by 0.8 (24.9 - 24.2) 56.2% Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Northern Illinois at Kent State 9 Northern Illinois by 12.0 (42.4 - 30.4) 79.8% Northern Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Rice at Tulsa -3 Tulsa by 3.3 (24.1 - 20.8) 62.2% Tulsa
Sat 4:00 PM Florida International at Southern Miss -17 Southern Miss by 12.7 (24.3 - 11.5) 81.1% Florida International
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Washington State at California 1.5 Washington State by 2.2 (29.1 - 26.9) 59.6% Washington State
Sat 4:30 PM ESPN3 Central Florida at Memphis 10 Central Florida by 13.7 (33.9 - 20.2) 82.8% Central Florida
Sat 5:00 PM Fresno State at Idaho 26 Fresno State by 13.6 (35.4 - 21.8) 82.6% Idaho
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 Oregon at Colorado 39 Oregon by 29.7 (44.5 - 14.8) 100.0% Colorado
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Arkansas at Florida -11 Florida by 17.4 (22.0 - 4.6) 88.5% Florida
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Cincinnati at South Florida 11.5 Cincinnati by 8.1 (27.0 - 18.9) 72.4% South Florida
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN LSU at Mississippi State 10 LSU by 3.9 (31.4 - 27.5) 63.6% Mississippi State
Sat 7:00 PM New Mexico State at New Mexico -9.5 New Mexico by 6.4 (34.6 - 28.2) 69.0% New Mexico State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Ole Miss at Auburn 3 Ole Miss by 0.4 (25.9 - 25.6) 55.2% Auburn
Sat 7:00 PM Fox TCU at Oklahoma -10.5 Oklahoma by 11.3 (29.7 - 18.3) 78.7% Oklahoma
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at UL-Lafayette -11 Texas State by 0.9 (27.8 - 26.9) 56.5% Texas State
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Kentucky at South Carolina -21 South Carolina by 13.9 (40.7 - 26.8) 83.2% Kentucky
Sat 7:30 PM CBSSN Louisiana Tech at UTEP 0 UTEP by 2.1 (35.3 - 33.2) 59.4% UTEP
Sat 7:30 PM CSS Missouri at Vanderbilt -1.5 Missouri by 4.3 (33.1 - 28.8) 64.4% Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM NBC Arizona State at Notre Dame 6 Arizona State by 3.3 (44.4 - 41.0) 62.2% Notre Dame
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Northwestern 7 Ohio State by 5.5 (32.9 - 27.4) 67.1% Northwestern
Sat 8:00 PM FS1 West Virginia at Baylor -28 Baylor by 21.8 (52.9 - 31.2) 94.2% West Virginia
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Washington at Stanford -7.5 Stanford by 6.5 (24.8 - 18.3) 69.3% Washington
Sun 12:00 AM San Jose State at Hawaii 5 San Jose State by 0.3 (21.1 - 20.8) 55.0% Hawaii

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM Texas at Iowa State 8.5 Iowa State by 2.1 Iowa State
Thu 7:30 PM Western Kentucky at UL-Monroe 7 Western Kentucky by 15.3 Western Kentucky
Thu 10:00 PM UCLA at Utah 6 Utah by 1.5 Utah
Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Fri 8:00 PM BYU at Utah State -6.5 Utah State by 5.7 BYU
Fri 9:00 PM Nevada at San Diego State -6 San Diego State by 12.3 San Diego State
Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Sat 11:30 AM Air Force at Navy -11.5 Navy by 21.5 Navy
Sat 12:00 PM Ball State at Virginia -5.5 Virginia by 4.1 Ball State
Sat 12:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Buffalo -14 Buffalo by 16.9 Buffalo XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Illinois at Nebraska -10 Nebraska by 2.4 Illinois
Sat 12:00 PM Louisville at Temple 34 Louisville by 35.4 Louisville XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Maryland at Florida State -16 Florida State by 19.0 Florida State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Michigan State at Iowa 1 Michigan State by 0.1 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM Penn State at Indiana 3.5 Penn State by 1.8 Indiana
Sat 12:00 PM Rutgers at SMU 5 Rutgers by 8.0 Rutgers XXX
Sat 12:00 PM Texas Tech at Kansas 17.5 Texas Tech by 21.9 Texas Tech XXX
Sat 12:21 PM Georgia State at Alabama -55 Alabama by 59.1 Alabama XXX
Sat 12:30 PM North Carolina at Virginia Tech -7.5 Virginia Tech by 20.8 Virginia Tech
Sat 1:00 PM Army at Boston College -11.5 Boston College by 8.0 Army
Sat 1:00 PM Central Michigan at Miami-OH 3 Central Michigan by 2.3 Miami-OH
Sat 1:00 PM South Alabama at Troy -3.5 South Alabama by 13.6 South Alabama
Sat 2:00 PM Ohio at Akron 5 Ohio by 3.5 Akron
Sat 2:00 PM UTSA at Marshall -14 Marshall by 10.2 UTSA
Sat 3:00 PM Florida Atlantic at UAB -5 Florida Atlantic by 1.2 Florida Atlantic
Sat 3:00 PM Western Michigan at Toledo -21 Toledo by 21.5 Toledo XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Clemson at Syracuse 14 Clemson by 10.2 Syracuse
Sat 3:30 PM East Carolina at Middle Tennessee 7.5 East Carolina by 15.5 East Carolina
Sat 3:30 PM Georgia at Tennessee 10 Georgia by 9.5 Tennessee
Sat 3:30 PM Georgia Tech at Miami-FL -6 Miami-FL by 15.7 Miami-FL
Sat 3:30 PM Kansas State at Oklahoma State -14 Oklahoma State by 18.6 Oklahoma State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Massachusetts at Bowling Green -25 Bowling Green by 29.4 Bowling Green XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Minnesota at Michigan -19.5 Michigan by 16.7 Minnesota
Sat 3:30 PM NC State at Wake Forest 8.5 NC State by 12.2 NC State XXX
Sat 3:30 PM North Texas at Tulane 3 North Texas by 0.5 Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM Northern Illinois at Kent State 9 Northern Illinois by 19.3 Northern Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM Rice at Tulsa -3 Tulsa by 2.6 Rice XXX
Sat 4:00 PM Florida International at Southern Miss -17 Southern Miss by 17.7 Southern Miss XXX
Sat 4:00 PM Washington State at California 1.5 Washington State by 5.0 Washington State
Sat 4:30 PM Central Florida at Memphis 10 Central Florida by 23.3 Central Florida
Sat 5:00 PM Fresno State at Idaho 26 Fresno State by 21.9 Idaho
Sat 6:00 PM Oregon at Colorado 39 Oregon by 42.9 Oregon XXX
Sat 7:00 PM Arkansas at Florida -11 Florida by 26.0 Florida
Sat 7:00 PM Cincinnati at South Florida 11.5 Cincinnati by 14.1 Cincinnati XXX
Sat 7:00 PM LSU at Mississippi State 10 LSU by 7.9 Mississippi State
Sat 7:00 PM New Mexico State at New Mexico -9.5 New Mexico by 8.4 New Mexico State
Sat 7:00 PM Ole Miss at Auburn 3 Ole Miss by 2.2 Auburn
Sat 7:00 PM TCU at Oklahoma -10.5 Oklahoma by 15.4 Oklahoma
Sat 7:00 PM Texas State at UL-Lafayette -11 Texas State by 3.1 Texas State
Sat 7:30 PM Kentucky at South Carolina -21 South Carolina by 20.7 Kentucky
Sat 7:30 PM Louisiana Tech at UTEP 0 UTEP by 1.1 UTEP
Sat 7:30 PM Missouri at Vanderbilt -1.5 Missouri by 8.1 Missouri
Sat 7:30 PM Arizona State at Notre Dame 6 Arizona State by 4.7 Notre Dame
Sat 8:00 PM Ohio State at Northwestern 7 Ohio State by 9.5 Ohio State XXX
Sat 8:00 PM West Virginia at Baylor -28 Baylor by 27.1 West Virginia
Sat 10:30 PM Washington at Stanford -7.5 Stanford by 8.3 Stanford XXX
Sun 12:00 AM San Jose State at Hawaii 5 San Jose State by 2.1 Hawaii

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