Miami's schedule is about to get a lot more difficult

Mike Ehrmann

Let's find out what happens when schedules stop being polite...and start getting real.

It's often difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff in college football. Many times, teams that look really good in October are forgotten about by mid-November (see West Virginia, 2012). In most cases, the frauds fool everyone by playing a weak schedule in the first several weeks of the season.

In this piece, we'll look at teams that have skated by so far by playing soft schedules. With the help of Brian Fremeau's FEI index, we can quickly determine which schools have a minefield ahead.

Fremeau publishes the strength of schedule for each team's previous schedule and future schedule. I simply took the rankings for both sets of data and subtracted one from the other to find the largest difference between the two.

The full data set is below, but let's look at the outliers first:

THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET REAL

Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
Oklahoma State 118 22 -96
Miami 98 5 -93
Oregon 86 3 -83
Baylor 110 29 -81
Michigan 112 33 -79
Texas Tech 99 20 -79
Cincinnati 125 47 -78
UTEP 119 42 -77
Houston 91 32 -59
Oklahoma 75 16 -59
Nebraska 113 56 -57
Syracuse 89 35 -54
Florida State 103 51 -52
Wyoming 120 69 -51
Minnesota 95 49 -46
Mississippi State 44 1 -43
Idaho 78 38 -40
Kansas 71 34 -37
Oregon State 39 2 -37
Troy 93 57 -36

Oklahoma State has the largest difference, but every Big 12 contender aside from Texas is on this list. Check out the big games that still remain in the Big 12:

Nov 2: Okla State @ Texas Tech

Nov 7: Oklahoma @ Baylor

Nov 16: Okla State @ Texas; Texas Tech @ Baylor

Nov 23: Baylor @ Okla State

Nov 28: Texas Tech @ Texas

Dec 7: Oklahoma @ Okla State; Texas @ Baylor

So among the five Big 12 teams with 1 conference loss or less, only OU vs. Texas and Texas Tech vs. OU have played each other at this point.

Miami has Florida State and Virginia Tech over the next two weeks.

Oregon's next game is at Stanford; then they close out with Utah - @ Arizona - Oregon State.

Michigan has the Big Ten's version of murderers row: @ MSU, Nebraska, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa, OSU

EASY STREET

Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
Colorado State 33 77 44
Georgia Tech 10 60 50
Mississippi 2 52 50
Louisiana Monroe 52 103 51
West Virginia 25 79 54
Army 62 117 55
Buffalo 40 98 58
North Carolina 13 75 62
San Jose State 45 109 64
Kent State 59 125 66
Vanderbilt 9 76 67
Middle Tennessee 50 120 70
Akron 53 124 71
Arkansas State 30 104 74
Toledo 38 113 75
South Carolina 14 89 75
Boise State 29 106 77
Georgia State 35 116 81
Utah State 26 118 92
Florida Atlantic 21 115 94

By contrast, these teams are on easy street the rest of the way out.

South Carolina finishes with MSU, Florida, Coastal Carolina, and Clemson (all at home).

Georgia Tech wraps up with Pitt, @ Clemson, Alabama A&M, Georgia

Wondering where your team stands? Here's the full set of data:

Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
1 Oklahoma State 118 22 -96
2 Miami 98 5 -93
3 Oregon 86 3 -83
4 Baylor 110 29 -81
5 Michigan 112 33 -79
5 Texas Tech 99 20 -79
7 Cincinnati 125 47 -78
8 UTEP 119 42 -77
9 Houston 91 32 -59
9 Oklahoma 75 16 -59
11 Nebraska 113 56 -57
12 Syracuse 89 35 -54
13 Florida State 103 51 -52
14 Wyoming 120 69 -51
15 Minnesota 95 49 -46
16 Mississippi State 44 1 -43
17 Idaho 78 38 -40
18 Kansas 71 34 -37
18 Oregon State 39 2 -37
20 Troy 93 57 -36
Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
21 Ohio State 105 70 -35
21 Arizona 48 13 -35
21 Notre Dame 41 6 -35
24 New Mexico 115 81 -34
25 Miami (OH) 117 84 -33
26 Clemson 69 37 -32
27 Illinois 92 63 -29
28 Tulsa 96 68 -28
29 South Florida 63 36 -27
30 Wake Forest 65 41 -24
31 Rutgers 81 58 -23
32 Louisiana Tech 122 100 -22
32 SMU 70 48 -22
34 Navy 87 67 -20
34 Indiana 51 31 -20
36 Louisville 106 87 -19
36 LSU 23 4 -19
38 Tulane 116 99 -17
38 Eastern Michigan 114 97 -17
Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
40 Central Michigan 101 85 -16
40 UAB 77 61 -16
42 Alabama 43 28 -15
43 Northern Illinois 108 94 -14
44 South Alabama 124 111 -13
45 Ball State 107 95 -12
46 Missouri 49 39 -10
46 Colorado 17 7 -10
48 Texas A&M 19 10 -9
49 Michigan State 85 78 -7
49 Georgia 28 21 -7
51 Louisiana Lafayette 111 105 -6
51 East Carolina 97 91 -6
53 Memphis 67 62 -5
53 USC 24 19 -5
55 Texas 31 27 -4
55 Auburn 27 23 -4
55 Florida 12 8 -4
58 North Carolina State 57 54 -3
Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
58 Wisconsin 47 44 -3
60 Connecticut 84 82 -2
60 Pittsburgh 32 30 -2
60 Arizona State 16 14 -2
63 Fresno State 123 122 -1
63 Temple 74 73 -1
63 Purdue 60 59 -1
66 Western Kentucky 121 121 0
66 UNLV 102 102 0
66 Southern Mississippi 90 90 0
66 Marshall 88 88 0
66 Maryland 55 55 0
66 Stanford 18 18 0
72 Hawaii 79 80 1
73 California 7 9 2
74 Florida International 80 83 3
74 Arkansas 8 11 3
76 Virginia 22 26 4
77 Duke 58 64 6
Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
78 Air Force 100 107 7
78 Ohio 94 101 7
78 Iowa 64 71 7
78 BYU 36 43 7
82 Washington State 3 12 9
83 Bowling Green 109 119 10
83 Kentucky 15 25 10
83 Utah 5 15 10
86 Northwestern 61 72 11
87 Penn State 54 66 12
88 UCLA 4 17 13
89 Nevada 37 53 16
89 Iowa State 34 50 16
91 Texas State 104 123 19
91 Rice 73 92 19
91 Kansas State 46 65 19
94 Central Florida 66 86 20
95 Tennessee 1 24 23
96 Western Michigan 72 96 24
Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
97 TCU 20 46 26
98 Massachusetts 82 112 30
99 North Texas 83 114 31
100 Boston College 42 74 32
101 New Mexico State 76 110 34
101 Virginia Tech 11 45 34
101 Washington 6 40 34
104 UTSA 56 93 37
105 San Diego State 68 108 40
106 Colorado State 33 77 44
107 Georgia Tech 10 60 50
107 Mississippi 2 52 50
109 Louisiana Monroe 52 103 51
110 West Virginia 25 79 54
111 Army 62 117 55
112 Buffalo 40 98 58
113 North Carolina 13 75 62
114 San Jose State 45 109 64
115 Kent State 59 125 66
Rk Team SOS Previous SOS Future Difference
116 Vanderbilt 9 76 67
117 Middle Tennessee 50 120 70
118 Akron 53 124 71
119 Arkansas State 30 104 74
120 Toledo 38 113 75
120 South Carolina 14 89 75
122 Boise State 29 106 77
123 Georgia State 35 116 81
124 Utah State 26 118 92
125 Florida Atlantic 21 115 94

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