College football F/+ picks: Week 9

Andy Lyons

Picks and projections for Week 9 of the 2013 college football season.

UPDATED to fix an error in last week's OLD METHOD results.

Last week started out really, really weird and ended relatively well. The picks began 0-10 (!!), then rallied. OLD trumped NEW by a hair, but neither had a particularly strong week.

Once the full, real F/+ rankings were in place after Week 7, with a broader range between good and bad, I kind of expected NEW to do better. Last week was one week, and an upset-laden one at that, but so far the OLD guard remains the leader.

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 230-231-9 (50%)
    Old: 192-176-7 (52%)

And the HYBRID results are still clocking in pretty well despite the mediocre week.

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
    Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
    Week 6: 20-19 (51%)
    Week 7: 19-16-1 (54%)
    Week 8: 21-22-1 (49%)
    TOTAL: 139-114-4 (55%)

Missouri by about seven and a half, by the way? SOLD. I'll take it, no questions asked.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning
Pick
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State 2.5 UL-Lafayette by 6.9 (40.5 - 33.5) 70.1% UL-Lafayette
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Kentucky at Mississippi State -11 Mississippi State by 13.0 (41.9 - 28.9) 81.5% Mississippi State
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Marshall at Middle Tennessee 8 Marshall by 11.7 (40.0 - 28.3) 79.3% Marshall
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN Boise State at BYU -7 BYU by 15.5 (35.3 - 19.7) 85.7% BYU
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Akron 10.5 Ball State by 15.6 (37.3 - 21.8) 85.8% Ball State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Connecticut at Central Florida -23 Central Florida by 30.1 (40.5 - 10.4) 99.0% Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Houston at Rutgers -7 Rutgers by 1.2 (26.9 - 25.8) 57.1% Houston
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Louisville at South Florida 21 Louisville by 26.2 (33.6 - 7.4) 98.9% Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Nebraska at Minnesota 10 Nebraska by 8.1 (31.3 - 23.2) 72.4% Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Northwestern at Iowa -4 Iowa by 5.2 (30.1 - 24.9) 66.4% Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM FSN affiliates Oklahoma State at Iowa State 13 Oklahoma State by 17.0 (31.0 - 13.9) 88.0% Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Wake Forest at Miami-FL -23.5 Miami-FL by 28.9 (38.6 - 9.7) 99.0% Miami-FL
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -17 Texas A&M by 13.0 (55.4 - 42.4) 81.5% Vanderbilt
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia Tech at Virginia 10 Georgia Tech by 9.6 (28.9 - 19.3) 75.5% Virginia
Sat 1:00 PM CBSSN Pittsburgh at Navy 6.5 Pittsburgh by 6.8 (29.8 - 23.0) 69.8% Pittsburgh
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Ohio -25 Ohio by 22.8 (36.1 - 13.3) 95.5% Miami-OH
Sat 2:30 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Bowling Green -3.5 Bowling Green by 4.4 (34.3 - 29.9) 64.6% Bowling Green
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Temple at SMU -13 SMU by 14.5 (36.8 - 22.4) 84.1% SMU
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Massachusetts -3 Western Michigan by 1.8 (22.1 - 20.4) 58.7% Western Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at North Carolina -7 North Carolina by 6.9 (39.2 - 32.3) 70.0% Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Kent State 1.5 Buffalo by 8.9 (37.1 - 28.2) 74.1% Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Clemson at Maryland 14.5 Clemson by 12.0 (35.4 - 23.4) 79.9% Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Duke at Virginia Tech -14 Virginia Tech by 21.9 (34.1 - 12.2) 94.4% Virginia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois -31 Northern Illinois by 24.8 (45.3 - 20.5) 97.6% Eastern Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Michigan State at Illinois 10 Michigan State by 7.2 (27.8 - 20.6) 70.7% Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 NC State at Florida State -32 Florida State by 45.4 (50.7 - 5.3) 99.0% Florida State
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Tennessee at Alabama -28 Alabama by 32.5 (37.7 - 5.2) 99.0% Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Texas Tech at Oklahoma -7 Oklahoma by 3.2 (33.4 - 30.2) 62.0% Texas Tech
Sat 3:30 PM CST Tulsa at Tulane 3 Tulane by 9.2 (26.8 - 17.6) 74.6% Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM CSS UTEP at Rice -17.5 Rice by 19.9 (51.0 - 31.1) 91.9% Rice
Sat 3:45 PM FS1 West Virginia at Kansas State -10 Kansas State by 15.7 (34.2 - 18.6) 85.9% Kansas State
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at Western Kentucky -10.5 Western Kentucky by 17.2 (39.7 - 22.5) 88.2% Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Utah at USC -6.5 USC by 1.1 (26.4 - 25.3) 57.1% Utah
Sat 5:00 PM CBSSN Notre Dame at Air Force 20 Notre Dame by 29.7 (56.9 - 27.3) 99.0% Notre Dame
Sat 5:00 PM local UAB at UTSA -7 UTSA by 15.1 (40.7 - 25.6) 85.0% UTSA
Sat 6:00 PM $Ulive Louisiana Tech at Florida International 5 Louisiana Tech by 7.1 (30.2 - 23.1) 70.3% Louisiana Tech
Sat 6:05 PM ESPN3 UNLV at Nevada -6 Nevada by 3.1 (47.9 - 44.8) 61.8% UNLV
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Baylor at Kansas 35 Baylor by 34.5 (46.3 - 11.8) 99.0% Kansas
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Furman at LSU -46.5 LSU by 33.7 (51.9 - 18.1) 99.0% Furman
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at UL-Monroe -12 UL-Monroe by 7.1 (30.5 - 23.3) 70.5% Georgia State
Sat 7:00 PM FCSC North Texas at Southern Miss 11.5 North Texas by 18.6 (27.8 - 9.1) 90.3% North Texas
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Texas State 2 South Alabama by 8.9 (25.6 - 16.7) 74.1% South Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 South Carolina at Missouri -3 Missouri by 7.2 (30.2 - 23.0) 70.6% Missouri
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN UCLA at Oregon -24 Oregon by 16.3 (38.3 - 22.0) 86.9% UCLA
Sat 7:00 PM MWC Video Wyoming at San Jose State -7 San Jose State by 4.2 (42.0 - 37.7) 64.2% Wyoming
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Florida Atlantic at Auburn -24 Auburn by 19.4 (26.5 - 7.1) 91.3% Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Idaho at Ole Miss -41 Ole Miss by 41.1 (41.1 - 0.0) 99.0% Ole Miss
Sat 7:30 PM FS1 Texas at TCU -2 TCU by 4.5 (25.2 - 20.7) 64.9% TCU
Sat 8:00 PM Pac-12 Arizona at Colorado 14.5 Arizona by 27.1 (37.0 - 9.9) 99.0% Arizona
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Penn State at Ohio State -15 Ohio State by 17.9 (37.5 - 19.6) 89.2% Ohio State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN2 Fresno State at San Diego State 9 Fresno State by 20.5 (37.3 - 16.8) 92.7% Fresno State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Stanford at Oregon State 4 Stanford by 15.9 (34.5 - 18.6) 86.3% Stanford
Sat 11:00 PM FS1 California at Washington -25 Washington by 32.6 (44.7 - 12.1) 99.0% Washington
Sat 11:59 PM MWC Video Colorado State at Hawaii 4 Colorado State by 0.9 (17.9 - 17.0) 56.5% Hawaii

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State 2.5 UL-Lafayette by 7.7 UL-Lafayette
Thu 7:30 PM Kentucky at Mississippi State -11 Mississippi State by 14.9 Mississippi State
Thu 7:30 PM Marshall at Middle Tennessee 8 Marshall by 11.5 Marshall
Fri 8:00 PM Boise State at BYU -7 BYU by 16.1 BYU
Sat 12:00 PM Ball State at Akron 10.5 Ball State by 15.4 Ball State
Sat 12:00 PM Connecticut at Central Florida -23 Central Florida by 33.8 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM Houston at Rutgers -7 Rutgers by 1.0 Houston
Sat 12:00 PM Louisville at South Florida 21 Louisville by 28.8 Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM Nebraska at Minnesota 10 Nebraska by 8.9 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM Northwestern at Iowa -4 Iowa by 5.4 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM Oklahoma State at Iowa State 13 Oklahoma State by 17.7 Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM Wake Forest at Miami-FL -23.5 Miami-FL by 32.2 Miami-FL
Sat 12:21 PM Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -17 Texas A&M by 13.7 Vanderbilt
Sat 12:30 PM Georgia Tech at Virginia 10 Georgia Tech by 10.0 Georgia Tech XXX
Sat 1:00 PM Pittsburgh at Navy 6.5 Pittsburgh by 7.9 Pittsburgh
Sat 2:00 PM Miami-OH at Ohio -25 Ohio by 23.7 Miami-OH
Sat 2:30 PM Toledo at Bowling Green -3.5 Bowling Green by 4.4 Bowling Green
Sat 3:00 PM Temple at SMU -13 SMU by 16.2 SMU
Sat 3:00 PM Western Michigan at Massachusetts -3 Western Michigan by 2.1 Western Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Boston College at North Carolina -7 North Carolina by 7.2 North Carolina XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Buffalo at Kent State 1.5 Buffalo by 9.9 Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM Clemson at Maryland 14.5 Clemson by 12.6 Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM Duke at Virginia Tech -14 Virginia Tech by 22.3 Virginia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois -31 Northern Illinois by 27.1 Eastern Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Michigan State at Illinois 10 Michigan State by 8.1 Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM NC State at Florida State -32 Florida State by 47.1 Florida State
Sat 3:30 PM Tennessee at Alabama -28 Alabama by 35.3 Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM Texas Tech at Oklahoma -7 Oklahoma by 3.2 Texas Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Tulsa at Tulane 3 Tulane by 9.1 Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at Rice -17.5 Rice by 20.0 Rice
Sat 3:45 PM West Virginia at Kansas State -10 Kansas State by 16.5 Kansas State
Sat 4:00 PM Troy at Western Kentucky -10.5 Western Kentucky by 17.8 Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM Utah at USC -6.5 USC by 1.1 Utah
Sat 5:00 PM Notre Dame at Air Force 20 Notre Dame by 30.8 Notre Dame
Sat 5:00 PM UAB at UTSA -7 UTSA by 16.0 UTSA
Sat 6:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Florida International 5 Louisiana Tech by 7.0 Louisiana Tech
Sat 6:05 PM UNLV at Nevada -6 Nevada by 2.8 UNLV
Sat 7:00 PM Baylor at Kansas 35 Baylor by 33.6 Kansas
Sat 7:00 PM Furman at LSU -46.5
Sat 7:00 PM Georgia State at UL-Monroe -12 UL-Monroe by 7.2 Georgia State
Sat 7:00 PM North Texas at Southern Miss 11.5 North Texas by 20.7 North Texas
Sat 7:00 PM South Alabama at Texas State 2 South Alabama by 10.2 South Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM South Carolina at Missouri -3 Missouri by 7.6 Missouri
Sat 7:00 PM UCLA at Oregon -24 Oregon by 15.1 UCLA
Sat 7:00 PM Wyoming at San Jose State -7 San Jose State by 4.3 Wyoming
Sat 7:30 PM Florida Atlantic at Auburn -24 Auburn by 23.0 Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:30 PM Idaho at Ole Miss -41 Ole Miss by 44.5 Ole Miss
Sat 7:30 PM Texas at TCU -2 TCU by 4.7 TCU
Sat 8:00 PM Arizona at Colorado 14.5 Arizona by 27.4 Arizona
Sat 8:00 PM Penn State at Ohio State -15 Ohio State by 18.0 Ohio State
Sat 10:30 PM Fresno State at San Diego State 9 Fresno State by 21.5 Fresno State
Sat 10:30 PM Stanford at Oregon State 4 Stanford by 17.5 Stanford
Sat 11:00 PM California at Washington -25 Washington by 35.9 Washington
Sat 11:59 PM Colorado State at Hawaii 4 Colorado State by 1.3 Hawaii

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