HuskerMath's FBS Power Rankings after Week 8

Using the same methodology as I use to predict season expected wins and pick weekly games, here's a top to bottom ranking of all FBS teams.

The initial BCS rankings for 2013 were released Sunday, which means of course that it's national "WTF good is a computer anyway" Week.  Not to outdone, and hoping to get in on some of the money, I present MY initial 2013 FBS Power Rankings.

What if every team could play every other team?  It would certainly make the tournament selections next year easier for starters.  It would also provide a neat way to rank the teams.

Using a round-robin format in which every team plays a simulated game against every other team, we can rank teams based on the total number of wins.  The best team should have the most wins, right?

I ran the model 100 times (I used 1000 for my weekly picks, but this was simulating more than 8000 games, rather than 800) and here's the 1-126 ranking.

Rank Team Ave # of wins Rank Team Ave # of wins Rank Team Ave # of wins
1 Baylor 108.07 43 Bowling Green 71.34 86 New Mexico 54.95
2 Florida State 106.01 44 Ball State 71.26 87 Akron 53.8
3 Oregon 105.55 45 East Carolina 70.79 88 Rice 53.69
4 Alabama 97.61 46 Utah State 69.89 89 Colorado 53.48
5 Arizona State 95.14 47 Penn State 69.55 90 South Alabama 52.66
6 Miami (Florida) 93.02 48 Minnesota 69.08 91 North Carolina 52.21
7 Clemson 92.41 49 Utah 68.54 92 Texas State 51.34
8 Arizona 92.08 50 Fresno State 68.06 93 Troy 51.23
9 Louisville 91.72 51 Mississippi 67.48 94 San Jose State 50.62
10 Auburn 91.12 52 Kansas State 67.22 95 Kent State 50.47
11 Ohio State 89.43 53 Boston College 66.93 96 Wake Forest 49.95
12 Missouri 88.53 54 Navy 66.88 97 Hawaii 49.16
13 UCLA 88.18 55 Iowa State 66.71 98 Air Force 47.92
14 LSU 86.87 56 Virginia Tech 66.06 99 Louisiana Tech 47.7
15 Florida 86.63 57 Northern Illinois 65.52 100 Nevada 47.59
16 BYU 86.23 58 TCU 65.27 101 UNLV 47.09
17 Houston 86.03 59 Wyoming 65.12 102 Virginia 46.94
18 Texas Tech 84.46 60 Syracuse 65.11 103 Middle Tennessee 45.91
19 Nebraska 83.57 61 Louisiana-Lafayette 64.39 104 San Diego State 45.58
20 Wisconsin 82.37 62 North Carolina State 63.93 105 Central Michigan 45.37
21 Michigan 82.17 63 Arkansas State 63.86 106 West Virginia 44.32
22 Georgia Tech 81.42 64 Rutgers 63.82 107 Eastern Michigan 43.13
23 Oklahoma State 80.29 65 Northwestern 63.63 108 Louisiana-Monroe 40.38
24 Boise State 79.81 66 North Texas 63.49 109 Tulsa 40.38
25 Iowa 79.4 67 Notre Dame 63.01 110 Connecticut 39.95
26 Michigan State 79.38 68 Texas 62.69 111 UTEP 39.71
27 Duke 77.82 69 Ohio 62.45 112 UAB 39.22
28 Oklahoma 77.5 70 Tennessee 61.55 113 UTSA 36.59
29 Stanford 76.65 71 Florida Atlantic 61.45 114 SMU 35.67
30 Indiana 76.47 72 Vanderbilt 61.03 115 Massachusetts 34.86
31 Georgia 75.68 73 USC 60.86 116 Miami (Ohio) 28.98
32 Marshall 75.09 74 Kansas 60.41 117 Georgia State 27.92
33 Mississippi State 75 75 Kentucky 60.37 118 Temple 25.65
34 Arkansas 74.9 76 Western Kentucky 60.05 119 South Florida 24.23
35 Cincinnati 74.03 77 Buffalo 59.6 120 Purdue 24.11
36 Illinois 73.55 78 Army 59.04 121 Florida International 22.37
37 UCF 73.52 79 Pittsburgh 58.61 122 Idaho 21.3
38 Maryland 72.63 80 Washington State 58.16 123 Old Dominion 19.35
39 South Carolina 72.28 81 Toledo 58.11 124 Southern Mississippi 18.53
40 Texas A&M 72.03 82 Colorado State 57.59 125 Western Michigan 13.07
41 Washington 72.01 83 Memphis 57.5 126 New Mexico State 10.66
42 Oregon State 71.5 84 Tulane 57.29
43 Bowling Green 71.34 85 California 55.1

"Are you nuts, Paul?" I hear you asking.

No, at least insofar as my model coding goes. The inputs I use for my model are season scoring offense and season scoring defense, with the prob. of win for each game adjusted for each team's strength of schedule. That explains why Baylor, FSU, and Oregon are far in front of everyone else. In my weekly model I use a home-field advantage adjustment as well. This ranking assumes a neutral field.

Wanna know how each team matched up? Head over to HuskerMath.com for the full matrix of every team-versus pair in the FBS.

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