College football F/+ picks: Week 8

Joel Auerbach

Picks and projections for Week 8 of the 2013 college football season.

And now everything changes. After seven weeks, we completely change up how the F/+ rankings come about. Gone are the preseason projections from both S&P+ (my measure) and FEI (Brian Fremeau's). And in come drive data (in S&P+) and breakouts for offense, defense and special teams (in FEI).

This change has resulted in some odd shifts in the rankings, which may have had nothing to do with last week's performances. But now we have the full measure, the good measure. We'll see what it does for the picks themselves.

One thing it has done: It's spread out the F/+ ratings. Last week, most top-10 teams were in the +20-30% range; now the top nine are all at +30.6% or higher. The bottom has followed suit, with seven teams now grading out at -30% or lower. This bigger range will have a serious impact on the NEW METHOD picks below. We'll see if it's a good impact or a bad impact. NEW METHOD picks were doing reasonably well these past two weeks, so a change might not be a good thing. (The OLD METHOD picks below have a set point range for top and bottom teams, so they shouldn't be impacted much. That said, they'll still be impacted by the simple fact that this is a different measure after seven weeks than it is before.)

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 209-206-8 (50%)
    Old: 168-154-6 (52%)

And the HYBRID results...

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
    Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
    Week 6: 20-19 (51%)
    Week 7: 19-16-1 (54%)
    TOTAL: 118-92-3 (56%)

One thing you'll notice below: With the broader range of F/+ ratings, NEW and OLD METHOD picks now agree significantly. They disagree on only two games. I have no idea if that's a good or bad thing.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's chance of winning Pick
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 UL-Lafayette at Western Kentucky -3 Western Kentucky by 3.7 (31.4 - 27.7) 63.0% Western Kentucky
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Miami-FL at North Carolina 9 Miami-FL by 19.6 (50.7 - 31.1) 91.5% Miami-FL
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN Central Florida at Louisville -12.5 Louisville by 15.4 (34.5 - 19.1) 85.5% Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Connecticut at Cincinnati -14 Cincinnati by 0.9 (15.2 - 14.4) 56.4% Connecticut
Sat 12:00 PM CBS Georgia at Vanderbilt 7 Georgia by 18.3 (50.2 - 31.9) 89.8% Georgia
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Minnesota at Northwestern -12.5 Northwestern by 13.0 (36.3 - 23.2) 81.6% Northwestern
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Navy at Toledo -8 Toledo by 13.2 (34.9 - 21.7) 81.9% Toledo
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Purdue at Michigan State -27 Michigan State by 37.8 (36.0 - (-1.9)) 100.0% Michigan State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 SMU at Memphis -3.5 Memphis by 10.2 (20.6 - 10.5) 76.5% Memphis
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN South Carolina at Tennessee 7.5 South Carolina by 13.6 (35.2 - 21.5) 82.7% South Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM Southern Miss at East Carolina -23 East Carolina by 29.1 (36.0 - 7.0) 100.0% East Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM Fox TCU at Oklahoma State -7.5 Oklahoma State by 11.3 (24.5 - 13.2) 78.6% Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Texas Tech at West Virginia 6 Texas Tech by 15.2 (32.3 - 17.1) 85.2% Texas Tech
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network Florida at Missouri 3 Missouri by 5.1 (13.9 - 8.8) 66.2% Missouri
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Syracuse at Georgia Tech -7 Georgia Tech by 9.7 (34.8 - 25.1) 75.6% Georgia Tech
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Akron at Miami-OH 7 Akron by 10.0 (23.4 - 13.4) 76.3% Akron
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Army at Temple -3 Army by 10.2 (45.4 - 35.3) 76.5% Army
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Ohio at Eastern Michigan 17 Ohio by 18.4 (46.8 - 28.4) 89.9% Ohio
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Western Michigan 18.5 Ball State by 23.0 (35.7 - 12.7) 95.6% Ball State
Sat 2:00 PM Colorado State at Wyoming -7 Wyoming by 8.8 (34.5 - 25.7) 73.8% Wyoming
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Kent State at South Alabama -6.5 South Alabama by 17.4 (44.6 - 27.1) 88.6% South Alabama
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan 16 Northern Illinois by 13.8 (37.1 - 23.3) 82.9% Central Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Auburn at Texas A&M -13 Texas A&M by 6.5 (41.7 - 35.2) 69.2% Auburn
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN News BYU at Houston 10 BYU by 15.2 (30.2 - 15.1) 85.2% BYU
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Duke at Virginia -2 Virginia by 0.6 (32.3 - 31.7) 55.7% Duke
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Indiana at Michigan -7.5 Michigan by 6.6 (46.3 - 39.7) 69.4% Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Iowa at Ohio State -17 Ohio State by 12.5 (28.2 - 15.7) 80.6% Iowa
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Maryland at Wake Forest 6 Maryland by 7.3 (28.5 - 21.2) 70.9% Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Buffalo -21 Buffalo by 30.0 (45.5 - 15.6) 100.0% Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN North Texas at Louisiana Tech 7 North Texas by 19.1 (34.5 - 15.3) 90.9% North Texas
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma at Kansas 23 Oklahoma by 18.0 (27.9 - 9.8) 89.4% Kansas
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 UCLA at Stanford -6 Stanford by 7.3 (20.9 - 13.7) 70.8% Stanford
Sat 6:00 PM Pac-12 Washington at Arizona State -3 Arizona State by 1.3 (36.1 - 34.8) 57.4% Washington
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN Arkansas at Alabama -28 Alabama by 31.5 (38.5 - 7.1) 100.0% Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at Texas State -17 Texas State by 17.1 (25.8 - 8.7) 88.1% Texas State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Iowa State at Baylor -34 Baylor by 27.5 (55.0 - 27.5) 100.0% Iowa State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 LSU at Ole Miss 8.5 LSU by 9.7 (37.3 - 27.5) 75.7% LSU
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Old Dominion at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 13.4 (30.7 - 17.2) 82.3% Pittsburgh
Sat 7:30 PM NBC USC at Notre Dame -3 USC by 5.2 (29.8 - 24.6) 66.4% USC
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Florida State at Clemson 3 Florida State by 3.8 (28.8 - 25.0) 63.3% Florida State
Sat 8:00 PM CBSSN Nevada at Boise State -22 Boise State by 26.7 (62.8 - 36.1) 99.4% Boise State
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 Rice at New Mexico State 18 Rice by 19.2 (38.3 - 19.1) 91.1% Rice
Sat 8:00 PM BTN Wisconsin at Illinois 13 Wisconsin by 12.6 (38.6 - 26.0) 81.0% Illinois
Sat 9:00 PM Utah State at New Mexico Utah State by 12.5 (34.1 - 21.6) 80.6% Utah State
Sat 10:00 PM UNLV at Fresno State -25 Fresno State by 22.6 (48.3 - 25.7) 95.2% UNLV
Sat 10:00 PM Pac-12 Utah at Arizona -4 Utah by 3.8 (38.1 - 34.3) 63.3% Utah
Sat 10:00 PM FS1 Washington State at Oregon -39 Oregon by 33.2 (45.6 - 12.4) 100.0% Washington State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN2 Oregon State at California 11 Oregon State by 16.7 (41.1 - 24.5) 87.4% Oregon State

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM UL-Lafayette at Western Kentucky -3 Western Kentucky by 4.0 Western Kentucky
Thu 7:30 PM Miami-FL at North Carolina 9 Miami-FL by 22.6 Miami-FL
Fri 8:00 PM Central Florida at Louisville -12.5 Louisville by 17.5 Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM Connecticut at Cincinnati -14 Cincinnati by 0.6 Connecticut
Sat 12:00 PM Georgia at Vanderbilt 7 Georgia by 22.3 Georgia
Sat 12:00 PM Minnesota at Northwestern -12.5 Northwestern by 14.3 Northwestern
Sat 12:00 PM Navy at Toledo -8 Toledo by 14.6 Toledo
Sat 12:00 PM Purdue at Michigan State -27 Michigan State by 41.0 Michigan State
Sat 12:00 PM SMU at Memphis -3.5 Memphis by 11.7 Memphis
Sat 12:00 PM South Carolina at Tennessee 7.5 South Carolina by 16.1 South Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM Southern Miss at East Carolina -23 East Carolina by 33.1 East Carolina
Sat 12:00 PM TCU at Oklahoma State -7.5 Oklahoma State by 11.8 Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM Texas Tech at West Virginia 6 Texas Tech by 16.6 Texas Tech
Sat 12:21 PM Florida at Missouri 3 Missouri by 5.6 Missouri
Sat 12:30 PM Syracuse at Georgia Tech -7 Georgia Tech by 9.6 Georgia Tech
Sat 1:00 PM Akron at Miami-OH 7 Akron by 11.6 Akron
Sat 1:00 PM Army at Temple -3 Army by 12.1 Army
Sat 1:00 PM Ohio at Eastern Michigan 17 Ohio by 21.3 Ohio
Sat 2:00 PM Ball State at Western Michigan 18.5 Ball State by 24.2 Ball State
Sat 2:00 PM Colorado State at Wyoming -7 Wyoming by 10.1 Wyoming
Sat 3:00 PM Kent State at South Alabama -6.5 South Alabama by 19.5 South Alabama
Sat 3:00 PM Northern Illinois at Central Michigan 16 Northern Illinois by 16.5 Northern Illinois XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Auburn at Texas A&M -13 Texas A&M by 7.4 Auburn
Sat 3:30 PM BYU at Houston 10 BYU by 16.0 BYU
Sat 3:30 PM Duke at Virginia -2 Virginia by 0.2 Duke
Sat 3:30 PM Indiana at Michigan -7.5 Michigan by 7.1 Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM Iowa at Ohio State -17 Ohio State by 14.1 Iowa
Sat 3:30 PM Maryland at Wake Forest 6 Maryland by 9.2 Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM Massachusetts at Buffalo -21 Buffalo by 33.3 Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM North Texas at Louisiana Tech 7 North Texas by 19.7 North Texas
Sat 3:30 PM Oklahoma at Kansas 23 Oklahoma by 20.6 Kansas
Sat 3:30 PM UCLA at Stanford -6 Stanford by 7.6 Stanford
Sat 6:00 PM Washington at Arizona State -3 Arizona State by 0.9 Washington
Sat 7:00 PM Arkansas at Alabama -28 Alabama by 37.4 Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM Georgia State at Texas State -17 Texas State by 19.8 Texas State
Sat 7:00 PM Iowa State at Baylor -34 Baylor by 28.3 Iowa State
Sat 7:00 PM LSU at Ole Miss 8.5 LSU by 11.3 LSU
Sat 7:00 PM Old Dominion at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 15.0 Pittsburgh
Sat 7:30 PM USC at Notre Dame -3 USC by 6.7 USC
Sat 8:00 PM Florida State at Clemson 3 Florida State by 4.5 Florida State
Sat 8:00 PM Nevada at Boise State -22 Boise State by 27.7 Boise State
Sat 8:00 PM Rice at New Mexico State 18 Rice by 21.7 Rice
Sat 8:00 PM Wisconsin at Illinois 13 Wisconsin by 15.5 Wisconsin XXX
Sat 9:00 PM Utah State at New Mexico Utah State by 15.0 Utah State
Sat 10:00 PM UNLV at Fresno State -25 Fresno State by 24.3 UNLV
Sat 10:00 PM Utah at Arizona -4 Utah by 4.5 Utah
Sat 10:00 PM Washington State at Oregon -39 Oregon by 34.5 Washington State
Sat 10:30 PM Oregon State at California 11 Oregon State by 19.5 Oregon State

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