Week 8 Picks and Updated Expected Win Totals

Joe Robbins

Despite a couple of significant upset, last week's tweaks to the model paid off.

Using the right season's play data made a big difference this week, as the model correctly predicted 74.1% of games correctly.  That was almost exactly the overall season accuracy of 74.0%.

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There were a few big changes in expected win totals from before Week 7 to before Week 8.  In the Big 12 Texas, based on its convincing win over Oklahoma, jumped 13% from 5.91 to 6.68 wins.  In the Big Ten, Nebraska turned it's mangling of Purdue into an 8% jump from 7.97 to 8.63 wins.  Northwestern was the biggest percentage loser in the Big Ten, falling 10% from 7.13 to 6.44 wins.  In the Pac-12 USC's surprise victory over Arizona into a 22% gain in expected wins, jumping from 6.77 to 8.24 wins.  Arizona felt the sting of that upset, falling 10% from 7.70 to 6.92 expected wins.  In the SEC, Auburn used it's not-particularly-surprising-lopsided victory over Western Carolina to climb 24% from 6.99 to 8.67 wins.  Florida's 6-17 loss to LSU, combined with Missouri's strong performance led to a 12% drop from 8.10 to 7.16 expected wins.


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Week 8 Picks - Predicted Winner is in bold.

TeamA TeamB Team 1 % Team 2 %
Louisiana-Lafayette Western Kentucky 0.456 0.544
Miami (Florida) North Carolina 0.899 0.101
UCF Louisville 0.29 0.71
Akron Miami (Ohio) 0.792 0.208
Arkansas Alabama 0.408 0.592
Army Temple 0.786 0.214
Auburn Texas A&M 0.629 0.371
Ball State Western Michigan 0.883 0.117
BYU Houston 0.585 0.415
Colorado State Wyoming 0.329 0.671
Connecticut Cincinnati 0.25 0.75
Duke Virginia 0.721 0.279
Florida Missouri 0.594 0.406
Florida State Clemson 0.682 0.318
Georgia Vanderbilt 0.617 0.383
Georgia State Texas State 0.258 0.742
Indiana Michigan 0.434 0.566
Iowa Ohio State 0.397 0.603
Iowa State Baylor 0.153 0.847
Kent State South Alabama 0.499 0.501
LSU Mississippi 0.801 0.199
Maryland Wake Forest 0.66 0.34
Massachusetts Buffalo 0.295 0.705
Minnesota Northwestern 0.598 0.402
Navy Toledo 0.53 0.47
Nevada Boise State 0.362 0.638
UNLV Fresno State 0.335 0.665
North Texas Louisiana Tech 0.626 0.374
Northern Illinois Central Michigan 0.733 0.267
Ohio Eastern Michigan 0.741 0.259
Oklahoma Kansas 0.798 0.202
Old Dominion Pittsburgh 0.239 0.761
Oregon State California 0.933 0.067
Purdue Michigan State 0.172 0.828
Rice New Mexico State 0.914 0.086
South Carolina Tennessee 0.726 0.274
USC Notre Dame 0.647 0.353
SMU Memphis 0.354 0.646
Southern Mississippi East Carolina 0.248 0.752
Syracuse Georgia Tech 0.566 0.434
TCU Oklahoma State 0.53 0.47
Texas Tech West Virginia 0.808 0.192
UCLA Stanford 0.728 0.272
Utah Arizona 0.552 0.448
Utah State New Mexico 0.709 0.291
Washington Arizona State 0.601 0.399
Washington State Oregon 0.318 0.682
Wisconsin Illinois 0.741 0.259
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