Study Hall: South Carolina 28, UCF 25

Stacy Revere

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

South Carolina 28, Central Florida 25

UCF SC UCF SC
Close % 98.6% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 37.1% 37.5% Success Rate 47.7% 55.8%
Leverage % 73.3% 65.0% PPP 0.44 0.57
S&P 0.916 1.130
TOTAL
EqPts 37.7 44.6 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 50.0% 47.5% Success Rate 56.3% 32.1%
Close PPP 0.50 0.56 PPP 0.67 0.53
Close S&P 0.999 1.033 S&P 1.228 0.853
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 7.4 20.9 Number 4 4
Close Success Rate 56.5% 55.6% Turnover Pts 16.4 15.9
Close PPP 0.32 0.46 Turnover Pts Margin -0.5 +0.5
Close S&P 0.887 1.020
Line Yards/carry 3.06 2.42 Q1 S&P 1.150 0.946
Q2 S&P 0.861 0.718
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.588 1.476
EqPts 30.3 23.7 Q4 S&P 1.872 0.910
Close Success Rate 46.0% 37.1%
Close PPP 0.61 0.68 1st Down S&P 1.179 1.054
Close S&P 1.069 1.049 2nd Down S&P 0.546 1.362
SD/PD Sack Rate 4.4% / 7.1% 0.0% / 4.8% 3rd Down S&P 1.449 0.864
Projected Pt. Margin: South Carolina +7.4 | Actual Pt. Margin: South Carolina +3

SC got out of its own way just long enough. The Gamecocks were the inferior team in the first half, even removing turnovers from the equation, but they rallied for about the first 20 minutes of the second half, and that did the job.

Still ...

...a 73.3% leverage rate for UCF is too high.

...a 57% success rate for UCF on the ground is too high.

...a 37% success rate for SC through the air is too low.

...a 2.42 line yards per carry average for SC is too low.

...even with the backup quarterback, a 32% success rate on passing downs is too low.

I viewed South Carolina as a team that was a step behind Georgia and Florida in the preseason. It's not too late for a turnaround, obviously, but even though Mike Davis has been as good as advertised, I haven't seen any reason to change my mind yet.

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