F/+ Picks: Week 1

Marcus Lattimore is back!

Alright, the F/+ projections have been updated; they will be revealed tomorrow in my Varsity Numbers column at Football Outsiders. In the meantime, sigh, it's time to unroll the Week 1 picks.

I hate doing picks, by the way. Every year, I vow to come up with a better, more complicated, more accurate way of making them using the F/+ rankings, and every year I run out of time. So we're going to do them exactly like we did last year, only with hopefully better projections (which is the goal every year). And yeah, Vegas has caught on to some teams quicker than normal. In Week 1, I can usually count on quite a few games where the spread and F/+ projections differ dramatically; but this time around, 19 of the 40 projections are within three points of the spread. That percentage will grow as the season progresses, but it seems awfully high from the start.

But hey, whatever, I'm not wagering any money on these...

Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Thursday 7:00pm ESPN S. Carolina Vanderbilt S.C. by 9.2 +6.0 S.C.
Thursday 7:00pm ESPN3 UCF Akron UCF by 26.2 +24.0 UCF
Thursday 7:00pm ESPN3 E. Michigan Ball St. Ball St. by 6 -3.0 Ball St.
Thursday 7:30pm CBS Sports UCLA Rice UCLA by 14.6 +16.0 Rice
Thursday 10:15pm ESPN Washington St. BYU BYU by 24 -11.0 BYU
Thursday 11:00pm CBS Sports Minnesota UNLV Minn. by 12.7 +8.5 Minnesota
Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Friday 7:30pm ESPNU Tennessee N.C. St. Tenn. by 9.6 +3.0 Tennessee
Friday 8:00pm ESPN Boise St. Michigan St. Mich. St. by 4.8 -7.0 Boise St.
Friday 10:00pm Pac-12 San Jose St. Stanford Stanford by 41.7 -25.0 Stanford
Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Saturday 9:00am CBS Notre Dame Navy Irish by 20.4 +15.5 Irish
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2 Northwestern Syracuse Syracuse by 0.4 +1.5 Syracuse
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN Ohio Penn St. Penn St. by 17 -6.5 Penn St.
Saturday 12:00pm ESPNU W. Michigan Illinois Illinois by 10.5 -10.0 Illinois
Saturday 12:00pm SEC Buffalo Georgia Georgia by 41.3 -38.0 Georgia
Saturday 12:00pm Big Ten Miami (OH) Ohio St. Ohio St. by 30.1 -24.5 Ohio St.
Saturday 12:00pm FX Marshall W. Virginia WVU by 26.9 -24.5 WVU
Saturday 12:00pm FCSP Troy UAB Troy by 3.6 +6.0 UAB
Saturday 3:00pm Pac-12 Nevada California California by 13 -11.5 California
Saturday 3:30pm FSN Tulsa Iowa St. Tulsa by 5.8 +2.0 Tulsa
Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 So. Miss Nebraska NU by 12.4 -20.5 So. Miss
Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 Miami Boston Coll. B.C. by 0.9 +2.5 B.C.
Saturday 3:30pm ESPNU Iowa N. Illinois Iowa by 12.3 +10.0 Iowa
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN Bowling Green Florida Florida by 29.7 -28.5 Florida
Saturday 4:00pm FX Colorado St. Colorado Colorado by 5.1 -6.5 CSU
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN Clemson Auburn Clemson by 0.2 +3.5 Auburn
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Fla. Int'l Duke Duke by 3.9 -3.0 Duke
Saturday 7:00pm EPSNU North Texas LSU LSU by 50.1 -42.5 LSU
Saturday 7:30pm Fox Hawaii USC USC by 37.4 -42.0 Hawaii
Saturday 8:00pm CSNC Texas St. Houston Houston by 38.8 -36.5 Houston
Saturday 8:00pm LHN Wyoming Texas Texas by 38.3 -31.5 Texas
Saturday 8:00pm ABC Michigan Alabama Alabama by 18.6 -14.0 Alabama
Saturday 8:00pm CBS Sports Rutgers Tulane Rutgers by 23.1 +20.5 Rutgers
Saturday 10:30pm FSN Oklahoma UTEP OU by 38.1 +31.0 Oklahoma
Saturday 10:30pm Pac-12 San Diego St. Washington Wash. by 13.9 -14.5 SDSU
Saturday 10:30pm ESPNU Toledo Arizona Arizona by 5.5 -11.0 Toledo
Saturday 10:30pm ESPN Arkansas St. Oregon Oregon by 35 -37.0 ASU
Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Sunday 3:30pm ESPN Kentucky Louisville Louisville by 12.6 -12.5 Louisville
Sunday 6:30pm FSN SMU Baylor Baylor by 13.3 -10.0 Baylor
Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Monday 8:00pm ESPN Georgia Tech Virginia Tech Va. Tech by 9.6 -7.0 Va. Tech

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