Alright, the F/+ projections have been updated; they will be revealed tomorrow in my Varsity Numbers column at Football Outsiders. In the meantime, sigh, it's time to unroll the Week 1 picks.
I hate doing picks, by the way. Every year, I vow to come up with a better, more complicated, more accurate way of making them using the F/+ rankings, and every year I run out of time. So we're going to do them exactly like we did last year, only with hopefully better projections (which is the goal every year). And yeah, Vegas has caught on to some teams quicker than normal. In Week 1, I can usually count on quite a few games where the spread and F/+ projections differ dramatically; but this time around, 19 of the 40 projections are within three points of the spread. That percentage will grow as the season progresses, but it seems awfully high from the start.
But hey, whatever, I'm not wagering any money on these...
Day | Time (ET) |
TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread (Home) |
Pick |
Thursday | 7:00pm | ESPN3 | UCF | Akron | UCF by 26.2 | +24.0 | UCF |
Thursday | 7:00pm | ESPN3 | E. Michigan | Ball St. | Ball St. by 6 | -3.0 | Ball St. |
Thursday | 7:30pm | CBS Sports | UCLA | Rice | UCLA by 14.6 | +16.0 | Rice |
Thursday | 10:15pm | ESPN | Washington St. | BYU | BYU by 24 | -11.0 | BYU |
Day | Time (ET) |
TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread (Home) |
Pick |
Friday | 7:30pm | ESPNU | Tennessee | N.C. St. | Tenn. by 9.6 | +3.0 | Tennessee |
Friday | 8:00pm | ESPN | Boise St. | Michigan St. | Mich. St. by 4.8 | -7.0 | Boise St. |
Day | Time (ET) |
TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread (Home) |
Pick |
Saturday | 9:00am | CBS | Notre Dame | Navy | Irish by 20.4 | +15.5 | Irish |
Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPN2 | Northwestern | Syracuse | Syracuse by 0.4 | +1.5 | Syracuse |
Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPN | Ohio | Penn St. | Penn St. by 17 | -6.5 | Penn St. |
Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPNU | W. Michigan | Illinois | Illinois by 10.5 | -10.0 | Illinois |
Saturday | 12:00pm | SEC | Buffalo | Georgia | Georgia by 41.3 | -38.0 | Georgia |
Saturday | 12:00pm | Big Ten | Miami (OH) | Ohio St. | Ohio St. by 30.1 | -24.5 | Ohio St. |
Saturday | 12:00pm | FX | Marshall | W. Virginia | WVU by 26.9 | -24.5 | WVU |
Saturday | 12:00pm | FCSP | Troy | UAB | Troy by 3.6 | +6.0 | UAB |
Saturday | 3:00pm | Pac-12 | Nevada | California | California by 13 | -11.5 | California |
Saturday | 3:30pm | FSN | Tulsa | Iowa St. | Tulsa by 5.8 | +2.0 | Tulsa |
Saturday | 3:30pm | ABC/ESPN2 | So. Miss | Nebraska | NU by 12.4 | -20.5 | So. Miss |
Saturday | 3:30pm | ABC/ESPN2 | Miami | Boston Coll. | B.C. by 0.9 | +2.5 | B.C. |
Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPNU | Iowa | N. Illinois | Iowa by 12.3 | +10.0 | Iowa |
Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPN | Bowling Green | Florida | Florida by 29.7 | -28.5 | Florida |
Saturday | 4:00pm | FX | Colorado St. | Colorado | Colorado by 5.1 | -6.5 | CSU |
Saturday | 7:00pm | ESPN | Clemson | Auburn | Clemson by 0.2 | +3.5 | Auburn |
Saturday | 7:00pm | ESPN3 | Fla. Int'l | Duke | Duke by 3.9 | -3.0 | Duke |
Saturday | 7:00pm | EPSNU | North Texas | LSU | LSU by 50.1 | -42.5 | LSU |
Saturday | 7:30pm | Fox | Hawaii | USC | USC by 37.4 | -42.0 | Hawaii |
Saturday | 8:00pm | CSNC | Texas St. | Houston | Houston by 38.8 | -36.5 | Houston |
Saturday | 8:00pm | LHN | Wyoming | Texas | Texas by 38.3 | -31.5 | Texas |
Saturday | 8:00pm | ABC | Michigan | Alabama | Alabama by 18.6 | -14.0 | Alabama |
Saturday | 8:00pm | CBS Sports | Rutgers | Tulane | Rutgers by 23.1 | +20.5 | Rutgers |
Saturday | 10:30pm | FSN | Oklahoma | UTEP | OU by 38.1 | +31.0 | Oklahoma |
Saturday | 10:30pm | Pac-12 | San Diego St. | Washington | Wash. by 13.9 | -14.5 | SDSU |
Saturday | 10:30pm | ESPNU | Toledo | Arizona | Arizona by 5.5 | -11.0 | Toledo |
Saturday | 10:30pm | ESPN | Arkansas St. | Oregon | Oregon by 35 | -37.0 | ASU |
Day | Time (ET) |
TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread (Home) |
Pick |
Sunday | 3:30pm | ESPN | Kentucky | Louisville | Louisville by 12.6 | -12.5 | Louisville |
Sunday | 6:30pm | FSN | SMU | Baylor | Baylor by 13.3 | -10.0 | Baylor |
Day | Time (ET) |
TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread (Home) |
Pick |
Monday | 8:00pm | ESPN | Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | Va. Tech by 9.6 | -7.0 | Va. Tech |
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