Updated (But Not Yet Official) 2012 F/+ Projections

Back in early February, I unfurled a very rough set of F/+ projections for the 2012 season, based entirely on recent history, recruiting rankings and returning starter numbers. The starter numbers are still in flux, and we have yet to take draft points and other factors into account. But since Brian Fremeau and I have begun working on the official F/+ projections (the last version was just me tinkering), which actually include rough estimates for the four FBS newcomers, I thought I would share the rough draft from which we are currently working.

Below is a table showing you the up-to-date projections, along with their comparison to the rankings I came up with in February. The new rankings are good for Boise State and Wisconsin and bad for Rutgers and Ole Miss. And Tennessee, with eleventy billion returning starters, still clings to a Top 25 spot.

We still have no idea what to make of Oklahoma State, or, for that matter, Georgia, now that half their defense has been suspended for portions of September. (And Baylor is still going to drop when RGIII gets drafted.)

Team Conference New Proj. F/+ Rank February Rk Change
Alabama SEC +37.2% 1 1 0
LSU SEC +32.8% 2 2 0
Oklahoma Big 12 +27.4% 3 4 1
Oklahoma State Big 12 +26.8% 4 3 -1
Oregon Pac-12 +23.3% 5 7 2
USC Pac-12 +21.2% 6 5 -1
Georgia SEC +20.3% 7 10 3
Florida State ACC +19.1% 8 6 -2
Stanford Pac-12 +19.0% 9 11 2
Texas Big 12 +18.4% 10 9 -1
Notre Dame Independent +16.9% 11 12 1
Michigan Big Ten +16.8% 12 8 -4
Florida SEC +16.3% 13 14 1
Arkansas SEC +15.2% 14 15 1
South Carolina SEC +15.1% 15 19 4
Texas A&M SEC +15.0% 16 13 -3
West Virginia Big 12 +14.7% 17 23 6
Wisconsin Big Ten +14.7% 18 30 12
Michigan State Big Ten +14.6% 19 17 -2
Ohio State Big Ten +14.4% 20 16 -4
TCU Big 12 +13.9% 21 22 1
Virginia Tech ACC +13.8% 22 27 5
Tennessee SEC +12.0% 23 20 -3
Nebraska Big Ten +11.9% 24 18 -6
South Florida Big East +11.6% 25 31 6

Full list, as always, after the jump.

Team Conference New Proj. F/+ Rank February Rk Change
Georgia Tech ACC +11.6% 26 35 9
Auburn SEC +9.9% 27 21 -6
Baylor Big 12 +9.6% 28 24 -4
Houston C-USA +9.5% 29 34 5
Missouri SEC +9.2% 30 29 -1
Clemson ACC +9.2% 31 26 -5
North Carolina ACC +8.2% 32 37 5
Utah Pac-12 +7.8% 33 28 -5
BYU Independent +7.6% 34 38 4
Kansas State Big 12 +7.2% 35 32 -3
Vanderbilt SEC +7.0% 36 33 -3
Penn State Big Ten +7.0% 37 46 9
Texas Tech Big 12 +6.5% 38 36 -2
Boise State MWC +6.3% 39 61 22
Rutgers Big East +5.9% 40 25 -15
Pittsburgh Big East +5.8% 41 41 0
Boston College ACC +5.0% 42 45 3
Iowa Big Ten +4.9% 43 50 7
Cincinnati Big East +4.9% 44 42 -2
Miami ACC +4.8% 45 40 -5
Southern Miss C-USA +4.6% 46 47 1
Tulsa C-USA +4.3% 47 53 6
Mississippi State SEC +4.1% 48 43 -5
Central Florida C-USA +4.0% 49 52 3
Louisville Big East +3.0% 50 39 -11
Team Conference New Proj. F/+ Rank February Rk Change
Illinois Big Ten +2.9% 51 56 5
Louisiana Tech WAC +2.1% 52 51 -1
Connecticut Big East +1.7% 53 57 4
N.C. State ACC +1.5% 54 60 6
California Pac-12 +1.4% 55 49 -6
Florida International Sun Belt -0.2% 56 44 -12
Northern Illinois MAC -0.8% 57 63 6
UCLA Pac-12 -1.5% 58 54 -4
Washington Pac-12 -1.7% 59 48 -11
Arizona State Pac-12 -2.1% 60 59 -1
Ohio MAC -2.1% 61 58 -3
Virginia ACC -2.5% 62 62 0
Nevada MWC -2.8% 63 83 20
Bowling Green MAC -3.0% 64 68 4
SMU C-USA -3.3% 65 64 -1
Maryland ACC -3.4% 66 66 0
Arizona Pac-12 -3.4% 67 76 9
Northwestern Big Ten -3.5% 68 73 5
Western Michigan MAC -3.7% 69 72 3
Purdue Big Ten -4.1% 70 67 -3
Toledo MAC -4.2% 71 75 4
Ole Miss SEC -4.6% 72 55 -17
Temple Big East -4.7% 73 78 5
Oregon State Pac-12 -4.8% 74 69 -5
Duke ACC -4.8% 75 65 -10
Team Conference New Proj. F/+ Rank February Rk Change
Navy Independent -5.1% 76 91 15
Miami (Ohio)
MAC -5.3% 77 77 0
Syracuse Big East -5.6% 78 71 -7
Utah State WAC -5.6% 79 79 0
Wake Forest ACC -5.7% 80 74 -6
Fresno State MWC -6.7% 81 97 16
East Carolina C-USA -6.8% 82 90 8
Kentucky SEC -7.5% 83 80 -3
Central Michigan MAC -7.9% 84 92 8
Iowa State Big 12 -8.4% 85 70 -15
San Diego State MWC -8.8% 86 81 -5
Arkansas State Sun Belt -9.2% 87 85 -2
Western Kentucky Sun Belt -9.6% 88 82 -6
Ball State MAC -10.5% 89 95 6
UL-Monroe Sun Belt -10.6% 90 100 10
Eastern Michigan MAC -11.0% 91 88 -3
Kent State MAC -11.3% 92 99 7
Hawaii MWC -11.7% 93 94 1
Marshall C-USA -11.7% 94 89 -5
Army Independent -12.2% 95 105 10
Minnesota Big Ten -12.4% 96 87 -9
Washington State Pac-12 -12.5% 97 84 -13
Indiana Big Ten -12.6% 98 86 -12
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt -12.7% 99 93 -6
Troy Sun Belt -13.2% 100 108 8
Team Conference New Proj. F/+ Rank February Rk Change
Colorado Pac-12 -13.8% 101 101 0
Colorado State MWC -13.9% 102 96 -6
Air Force MWC -14.2% 103 112 9
UTEP C-USA -14.2% 104 104 0
Kansas Big 12 -14.3% 105 103 -2
North Texas Sun Belt -14.8% 106 98 -8
Buffalo MAC -15.3% 107 111 4
Wyoming MWC -15.8% 108 102 -6
UTSA WAC -16.7% 109 NR NR
San Jose State WAC -18.3% 110 107 -3
Tulane C-USA -18.6% 111 109 -2
Rice C-USA -19.9% 112 106 -6
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt -21.9% 113 117 4
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt -22.3% 114 115 1
UAB C-USA -22.7% 115 113 -2
Massachusetts MAC -23.5% 116 NR NR
Memphis C-USA -23.7% 117 110 -7
Idaho WAC -23.8% 118 114 -4
UNLV MWC -24.5% 120 116 -4
South Alabama Sun Belt -24.5% 119 NR NR
New Mexico State WAC -25.5% 121 118 -3
Texas State WAC -25.5% 122 NR NR
Akron MAC -26.9% 123 119 -4
New Mexico MWC -30.1% 124 120 -4
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