FanPost

Impact of Losing/Returning All-American QBs

After reading Bill C's post on the value of returning starters, I was curious to see what affect losing or returning an All-American quarterback would have on a team's ranking. I used consensus All-Americans (from Wikipedia - some years have two consensus) and AP Top 25 Rankings for comparison. If teams were ranked out of the top 25 the next year, I treated that as ranked 26.

The results? Over the past 10 seasons, 8 consensus all-american QBs have not returned, and their teams dropped 13 spots in the AP poll on average (likely worse if you consider non-ranked teams likely to actually be lower than 26).

Over the same time span, 5 consensus all-american QBs have returned the next season, and their teams still dropped 6.6 spots on average.

My take from this quick-&-dirty comparison is that losing an all-american QB is somewhat of a big deal, and it would make sense to include something along those lines in preseason ratings (such as weighting returning starters by position and by achievements such as all-american or all-conf). Returning an all-american QB however? Not as predictive. Perhaps because it's harder to maintain the high ranking the team achieved that year regardless of who's playing QB the next. Every team with an all-american QB ranked in the top 15 that year and most in the top 5, so there's not much room for improvement.

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Football Study Hall

You must be a member of Football Study Hall to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Football Study Hall. You should read them.

Join Football Study Hall

You must be a member of Football Study Hall to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Football Study Hall. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker