As of the end of Saturday's games, these are the Compu-Picks top 35 and bottom 30 (plus a couple extras). Remember that this is a predictive model, designed to pick games and show how good a team actually is. Its results can be very different from what you'll see elsewhere. The workings of the model are confidential (it is, after all, designed to make winning picks), but I'm happy to answer questions about the models' results.
This week's piece will just be the data table without additional commentary; next week I'll have a good deal more information and analysis as part of my post-season wrapup.
|Rank||BCS Rank||Team||League||Score||Schedule Rank *||Result Rank|
|5||5||Kansas State||Big 12||0.71||13||5|
|14||NR||Oklahoma State||Big 12||0.47||7||35|
|18||3*||Ohio State||Big Ten||0.39||57||13|
|20||NR||Fresno State||Mountain West||0.36||61||14|
|24||NR||Texas Christian||Big 12||0.32||18||55|
|25||24||San Jose State||WAC||0.32||69||16|
|30||NR||Texas Tech||Big 12||0.30||17||56|
|31||19||Boise State||Mountain West||0.30||84||10|
|95||.||North Texas||Sun Belt||-0.33||67||97|
|99||.||Florida Atlantic||Sun Belt||-0.36||65||105|
|100||.||Colorado State||Mountain West||-0.36||85||95|
|101||.||Florida International||Sun Belt||-0.38||102||90|
|102||.||New Mexico||Mountain West||-0.38||92||93|
|110||.||Nevada-Las Vegas||Mountain West||-0.47||88||104|
|119||.||South Alabama||Sun Belt||-0.67||105||113|
|124||.||New Mexico State||WAC||-0.90||117||123|
Technical notes about the lists:
1) Conference ratings are straight averages of all of the teams in the league. There is no "central averaging" (like Sagarin does), or over-weighting the top teams, or anything like that. Such approaches would yield different numbers, and could potentially change the order of some of the leagues.
2) Games against AA teams are not counted. There are many good arguments both for and against counting such games (see this link for an interesting analysis of the issue). I have elected not to count these results in the Compu-Picks model. As is the case almost every year, this means that one or two especially surprising AA upsets don't make it into the numbers, skewing the results to a fair degree for a couple of teams. I believe that this is a more than acceptable tradeoff given the substantial issues that counting AA games would create, but you are certainly welcome to disagree with my decision on this matter.
3) As mentioned here, the purpose of this system is to make picks, not to create a list used for rankings. As such, I evaluate the system solely on the basis of how good a job it does making picks. I do not evaluate the system on the basis of whether or not it agreed with AP polls, BCS rankings, the BCS computers, or any other such list out there. In fact, the system has a long and established history of being substantially different than those sources. I am fine with these differences. To be honest, I publish these lists because I find them interesting and thought-provoking, and because I believe it is a good thing to introduce an approach that doesn't simply regurgitate the same avenues of thinking as you can find in most places.
4) The system is noisy, especially earlier in the year. This is why I start with only the top and bottom few, and slowly expand the list. While I believe that the numbers are reasonable, I certainly accept that they're not perfect. If you believe that a specific team is over- or under-ranked, you may well be right. I bring this up because if you're going to criticize the system for being wrong about a team, I'd appreciate it if you explain why you think the system is substantially wrong, rather than just marginally so (if it's just one or two slots off, especially well before the end of the year, I'd consider that well within a reasonable error range).
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org