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Compu-Picks 2012 Analysis: Week Fourteen


source: http://cfn.scout.com/2/1246958.html

As of the end of Saturday's games, these are the Compu-Picks top 35 and bottom 30 (plus a couple extras). Remember that this is a predictive model, designed to pick games and show how good a team actually is. Its results can be very different from what you'll see elsewhere. The workings of the model are confidential (it is, after all, designed to make winning picks), but I'm happy to answer questions about the models' results.

This week's piece will just be the data table without additional commentary; next week I'll have a good deal more information and analysis as part of my post-season wrapup.

Rank BCS Rank Team League Score Schedule Rank * Result Rank
1 4 Oregon Pac-12 0.93 6 2
2 2 Alabama SEC 0.93 8 1
3 3 Florida SEC 0.77 3 12
4 9 Texas A&M SEC 0.76 4 9
5 5 Kansas State Big 12 0.71 13 5
6 1 Notre Dame Indep 0.70 32 4
7 7 Georgia SEC 0.64 31 7
8 6 Stanford Pac-12 0.62 11 22
9 10 South Carolina SEC 0.61 24 15
10 11 Oklahoma Big 12 0.61 9 20
11 13 Oregon State Pac-12 0.61 1 30
12 8 Louisiana State SEC 0.58 15 18
13 12 Florida State ACC 0.47 48 6
14 NR Oklahoma State Big 12 0.47 7 35
15 14 Clemson ACC 0.46 46 11
16 NR Southern California Pac-12 0.45 25 33
17 23 Texas Big 12 0.44 14 40
18 3* Ohio State Big Ten 0.39 57 13
19 NR Arizona State Pac-12 0.37 30 41
20 NR Fresno State Mountain West 0.36 61 14
21 22 Utah State WAC 0.36 74 8
22 17 UCLA Pac-12 0.36 35 34
23 NR Wisconsin Big Ten 0.36 42 24
24 NR Texas Christian Big 12 0.32 18 55
25 24 San Jose State WAC 0.32 69 16
26 NR Brigham Young Indep 0.32 45 25
27 NR Arizona Pac-12 0.30 5 61
28 NR Baylor Big 12 0.30 22 54
29 18 Michigan Big Ten 0.30 40 32
30 NR Texas Tech Big 12 0.30 17 56
31 19 Boise State Mountain West 0.30 84 10
32 NR Mississippi State SEC 0.28 33 49
33 NR Mississippi SEC 0.28 21 59
34 NR Vanderbilt SEC 0.27 38 46
35 NR Cincinnati Big East 0.26 66 21
36 16 Nebraska Big Ten 0.25 39 44
39 20 Northwestern Big Ten 0.24 53 31
43 15 Northern Illinois MAC 0.19 122 3
50 25 Kent MAC 0.13 106 19
53 21 Louisville Big East 0.11 76 38
95 . North Texas Sun Belt -0.33 67 97
96 . Temple Big East -0.33 71 98
97 . Houston C-USA -0.34 115 76
98 . Marshall C-USA -0.34 111 79
99 . Florida Atlantic Sun Belt -0.36 65 105
100 . Colorado State Mountain West -0.36 85 95
101 . Florida International Sun Belt -0.38 102 90
102 . New Mexico Mountain West -0.38 92 93
103 . Boston College ACC -0.40 51 111
104 . Central Michigan MAC -0.40 120 80
105 . Texas State WAC -0.41 101 89
106 . Memphis C-USA -0.44 118 86
107 . Western Michigan MAC -0.44 124 82
108 . Buffalo MAC -0.45 95 99
109 . Texas-El Paso C-USA -0.47 98 101
110 . Nevada-Las Vegas Mountain West -0.47 88 104
111 . Colorado Pac-12 -0.50 36 124
112 . Army Indep -0.51 100 102
113 . Illinois Big Ten -0.53 54 120
114 . Miami (Ohio) MAC -0.53 104 106
115 . Hawaii Mountain West -0.58 90 115
116 . Alabama-Birmingham C-USA -0.59 107 108
117 . Eastern Michigan MAC -0.60 103 112
118 . Tulane C-USA -0.64 109 114
119 . South Alabama Sun Belt -0.67 105 113
120 . Idaho WAC -0.68 79 121
121 . Southern Mississippi C-USA -0.70 108 118
122 . Akron MAC -0.72 116 117
123 . Umass MAC -0.78 121 122
124 . New Mexico State WAC -0.90 117 123

Technical notes about the lists:

1) Conference ratings are straight averages of all of the teams in the league. There is no "central averaging" (like Sagarin does), or over-weighting the top teams, or anything like that. Such approaches would yield different numbers, and could potentially change the order of some of the leagues.

2) Games against AA teams are not counted. There are many good arguments both for and against counting such games (see this link for an interesting analysis of the issue). I have elected not to count these results in the Compu-Picks model. As is the case almost every year, this means that one or two especially surprising AA upsets don't make it into the numbers, skewing the results to a fair degree for a couple of teams. I believe that this is a more than acceptable tradeoff given the substantial issues that counting AA games would create, but you are certainly welcome to disagree with my decision on this matter.

3) As mentioned here, the purpose of this system is to make picks, not to create a list used for rankings. As such, I evaluate the system solely on the basis of how good a job it does making picks. I do not evaluate the system on the basis of whether or not it agreed with AP polls, BCS rankings, the BCS computers, or any other such list out there. In fact, the system has a long and established history of being substantially different than those sources. I am fine with these differences. To be honest, I publish these lists because I find them interesting and thought-provoking, and because I believe it is a good thing to introduce an approach that doesn't simply regurgitate the same avenues of thinking as you can find in most places.

4) The system is noisy, especially earlier in the year. This is why I start with only the top and bottom few, and slowly expand the list. While I believe that the numbers are reasonable, I certainly accept that they're not perfect. If you believe that a specific team is over- or under-ranked, you may well be right. I bring this up because if you're going to criticize the system for being wrong about a team, I'd appreciate it if you explain why you think the system is substantially wrong, rather than just marginally so (if it's just one or two slots off, especially well before the end of the year, I'd consider that well within a reasonable error range).

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

2012 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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