Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE
A giant table comparing S&P+ projections to actual results.
I meant to do this yesterday, but in conjunction with this week's Varsity Numbers, in which I tested some odd S&P+ ratings against the schedule at hand, I wanted to share some data.
Below, you'll see an enormous table with the following columns:
- Team
- Current S&P+ Ranking
- Conference
- Games Played
- Games the current S&P+ rankings project correctly
- % of games S&P+ gets correct
- Difference between projected point margin and actual point margin for away games (a positive number means the team performed better than projected)
- Difference between projected point margin and actual point margin for home games (a positive number means the team performed better than projected)
- Difference between projected point margin and actual point margin for all games (a positive number means the team performed better than projected)
- Home-road splits regarding difference in projected-versus-actual performance (a positive number means you perform better, compared to projections, on the road).
So here you go.
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| Alabama | 1 | SEC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 0.7 | -1.8 |
| Oregon | 2 | Pac-12 | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.5 |
| Florida | 3 | SEC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 15.1 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 9.2 |
| Notre Dame | 4 | Indy | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | -6.5 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | Big 12 | 7 | 5 | 0.714 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -7.6 | -0.3 |
| Texas A&M | 6 | SEC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -11.7 | -9.1 | -10.4 | -2.6 |
| Florida State | 7 | ACC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | -10.6 | -7.0 | -4.6 | -3.5 |
| LSU | 8 | SEC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -15.9 | 11.4 | -1.5 | -27.4 |
| Michigan State | 9 | Big Ten | 9 | 7 | 0.778 | 6.6 | -1.5 | 2.6 | 8.1 |
| Tennessee | 10 | SEC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -6.1 | 13.4 | 2.5 | -19.5 |
| Arizona | 11 | Pac-12 | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 16.7 | -3.4 | 4.1 | 20.1 |
| Michigan | 12 | Big Ten | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | -4.3 | 10.4 | 3.1 | -14.7 |
| BYU | 13 | Indy | 9 | 7 | 0.778 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.4 | -0.5 |
| Nebraska | 14 | Big Ten | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| Fresno State | 15 | MWC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 6.1 | 15.9 | 10.4 | -9.8 |
| Boise State | 16 | MWC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.4 | -2.2 |
| Texas Tech | 17 | Big 12 | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | -5.2 | 3.0 | -0.7 | -8.2 |
| Kansas State | 18 | Big 12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -4.7 | -1.8 | -3.1 | -2.8 |
| Ohio State | 19 | Big Ten | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | -9.1 | -7.7 | -8.3 | -1.4 |
| South Carolina | 20 | SEC | 9 | 9 | 1.000 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| Utah State | 21 | WAC | 9 | 9 | 1.000 | -1.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | -7.9 |
| Georgia | 22 | SEC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 10.8 | -4.0 |
| Stanford | 23 | Pac-12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 5.4 |
| Oregon State | 24 | Pac-12 | 7 | 5 | 0.714 | 19.3 | 4.6 | 13.8 | 14.6 |
| Wisconsin | 25 | Big Ten | 9 | 9 | 1.000 | -14.2 | -0.1 | -8.1 | -14.1 |
| Oklahoma State | 26 | Big 12 | 7 | 6 | 0.857 | -4.7 | 17.4 | 9.1 | -22.1 |
| Ole Miss | 27 | SEC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -12.7 | -7.7 | -9.9 | -5.1 |
| Texas | 28 | Big 12 | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | 7.2 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 7.3 |
| Arkansas | 29 | SEC | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 11.9 | -2.8 |
| Washington | 30 | Pac-12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -23.0 | -4.4 | -16.0 | -18.7 |
| West Virginia | 31 | Big 12 | 7 | 6 | 0.857 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| USC | 32 | Pac-12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | -4.1 |
| Arizona State | 33 | Pac-12 | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 |
| Mississippi State | 34 | SEC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 0.7 | 27.1 | 15.4 | -26.4 |
| Iowa State | 35 | Big 12 | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | -3.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | -5.9 |
| Clemson | 36 | ACC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| UCLA | 37 | Pac-12 | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -9.0 | 1.5 | -3.7 | -10.5 |
| Syracuse | 38 | Big East | 8 | 4 | 0.500 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 5.1 |
| Penn State | 39 | Big Ten | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -6.9 | 3.4 | -1.7 | -10.3 |
| Northwestern | 40 | Big Ten | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 0.4 | -2.4 | -0.9 | 2.8 |
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| Missouri | 41 | SEC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 19.6 | 2.3 | 11.0 | 17.3 |
| Baylor | 42 | Big 12 | 7 | 6 | 0.857 | -19.6 | 7.1 | 0.4 | -26.7 |
| California | 43 | Pac-12 | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 2.8 | 10.8 | 6.8 | -7.9 |
| Louisiana Tech | 44 | WAC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | -6.8 | -3.7 | -5.3 | -3.0 |
| TCU | 45 | Big 12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 1.5 |
| South Florida | 46 | Big East | 8 | 4 | 0.500 | -8.3 | 3.7 | -2.3 | -11.9 |
| Western Kentucky | 47 | Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | 1.5 | -4.9 | -1.7 | 6.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 48 | ACC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -13.4 | -12.5 | -12.8 | -0.9 |
| San Jose State | 49 | WAC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 5.7 | -4.3 | 0.7 | 9.9 |
| NC State | 50 | ACC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 15.8 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 14.7 |
| Georgia Tech | 51 | ACC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 5.2 | 13.7 | 10.5 | -8.5 |
| Iowa | 52 | Big Ten | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 3.6 | -2.3 |
| Miami-FL | 53 | ACC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -6.8 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -10.1 |
| Louisville | 54 | Big East | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| Utah | 55 | Pac-12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -11.8 | -1.7 | -4.8 | -10.1 |
| Arkansas State | 56 | Sun Belt | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -2.9 | 20.1 | 12.5 | -23.1 |
| Minnesota | 57 | Big Ten | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -18.0 | -4.5 | -9.6 | -13.5 |
| Kansas | 58 | Big 12 | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -1.4 | 2.2 | 0.1 | -3.7 |
| North Carolina | 59 | ACC | 9 | 7 | 0.778 | -5.5 | -6.6 | -5.3 | 1.1 |
| Central Florida | 60 | CUSA | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 19.6 | 18.5 | 18.9 | 1.0 |
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| Kentucky | 61 | SEC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 2.1 |
| Rutgers | 62 | Big East | 8 | 4 | 0.500 | -9.5 | 14.9 | 4.1 | -24.4 |
| Purdue | 63 | Big Ten | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 9.1 | -0.8 |
| Houston | 64 | CUSA | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 10.3 | -2.9 |
| Tulsa | 65 | CUSA | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -10.2 | -15.2 | -12.7 | 5.0 |
| Northern Illinois | 66 | MAC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 4.2 | 10.5 | 8.4 | -6.3 |
| Auburn | 67 | SEC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 2.2 | -10.3 | -4.8 | 12.5 |
| Virginia | 68 | ACC | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | -11.2 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -5.9 |
| San Diego State | 69 | MWC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 |
| Ball State | 70 | MAC | 9 | 6 | 0.667 | -7.9 | -3.8 | -4.6 | -4.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 71 | Big East | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 5.5 | -5.0 | 0.2 | 10.5 |
| SMU | 72 | CUSA | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 10.8 | -14.8 |
| UNLV | 73 | MWC | 9 | 6 | 0.667 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Wake Forest | 74 | ACC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -5.9 | -8.0 | -7.0 | 2.1 |
| Vanderbilt | 75 | SEC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -14.8 | -13.5 | -12.9 | -1.3 |
| Florida International | 76 | Sun Belt | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | -21.3 | 0.7 | -7.6 | -22.0 |
| Indiana | 77 | Big Ten | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 12.4 | -3.9 | 2.2 | 16.3 |
| UL-Monroe | 78 | Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | 8.0 | 15.3 | 11.6 | -7.2 |
| Connecticut | 79 | Big East | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 10.1 | -0.3 | 5.6 | 10.4 |
| Washington State | 80 | Pac-12 | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -9.0 | -1.3 | -5.1 | -7.7 |
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| Kent State | 81 | MAC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 8.0 | 13.9 | 11.0 | -5.9 |
| Bowling Green | 82 | MAC | 9 | 9 | 1.000 | -13.1 | 10.9 | 1.9 | -24.0 |
| Duke | 83 | ACC | 9 | 7 | 0.778 | 7.0 | -1.7 | 1.2 | 8.7 |
| Nevada | 84 | MWC | 9 | 5 | 0.556 | -24.9 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -24.6 |
| Troy | 85 | Sun Belt | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -7.5 | -7.7 | -7.6 | 0.2 |
| Cincinnati | 86 | Big East | 7 | 6 | 0.857 | -3.0 | 14.4 | 6.7 | -17.4 |
| Wyoming | 87 | MWC | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | -17.5 | -13.7 | -16.1 | -3.8 |
| Navy | 88 | Indy | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -18.2 | 1.4 | -7.3 | -19.6 |
| Boston College | 89 | ACC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| UL-Lafayette | 90 | Sun Belt | 7 | 6 | 0.857 | -2.4 | 3.2 | -0.3 | -5.6 |
| Middle Tennessee | 91 | Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | -8.0 | 7.8 | 1.9 | -15.7 |
| Toledo | 92 | MAC | 9 | 6 | 0.667 | -11.8 | -3.1 | -6.4 | -8.6 |
| Air Force | 93 | MWC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 7.0 | -14.4 | -4.9 | 21.3 |
| Texas State | 94 | WAC | 7 | 5 | 0.714 | 5.3 | -9.7 | -2.2 | 14.9 |
| New Mexico | 95 | MWC | 9 | 9 | 1.000 | 1.8 | 14.1 | 9.5 | -12.3 |
| Maryland | 96 | ACC | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | -3.6 | 15.1 | 3.6 | -18.7 |
| Buffalo | 97 | MAC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -3.0 | 8.1 | 1.9 | -11.1 |
| Marshall | 98 | CUSA | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 5.3 | 6.8 |
| Western Michigan | 99 | MAC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | -10.9 | -5.2 | -8.1 | -5.6 |
| Illinois | 100 | Big Ten | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -6.6 | -1.5 | -4.6 | -5.1 |
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| Central Michigan | 101 | MAC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | -2.7 |
| UTEP | 102 | CUSA | 9 | 9 | 1.000 | -1.6 | -7.6 | -4.9 | 6.0 |
| Southern Miss | 103 | CUSA | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -4.4 | 11.6 | 4.7 | -16.0 |
| Miami-OH | 104 | MAC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.1 | -0.8 |
| UAB | 105 | CUSA | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -14.5 | 2.8 | -8.0 | -17.2 |
| North Texas | 106 | Sun Belt | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -21.8 | -2.6 | -9.8 | -19.2 |
| Ohio | 107 | MAC | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -4.8 | 11.2 | 5.2 | -16.0 |
| Rice | 108 | CUSA | 9 | 6 | 0.667 | 0.9 | 15.9 | 7.6 | -15.0 |
| Temple | 109 | Big East | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 1.8 | -7.6 | -3.6 | 9.5 |
| Colorado State | 110 | MWC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| East Carolina | 111 | CUSA | 9 | 7 | 0.778 | -6.9 | 18.7 | 11.3 | -25.6 |
| Akron | 112 | MAC | 9 | 8 | 0.889 | 0.5 | 10.4 | 7.9 | -9.8 |
| Florida Atlantic | 113 | Sun Belt | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | -13.1 | -4.4 | -6.6 | -8.6 |
| Colorado | 114 | Pac-12 | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -3.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | -16.1 |
| Army | 115 | Indy | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 0.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | -7.6 |
| Tulane | 116 | CUSA | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -2.7 | -0.8 |
| Eastern Michigan | 117 | MAC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 15.6 | -5.7 | 2.3 | 21.2 |
| Idaho | 118 | WAC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 4.3 | -3.4 |
| New Mexico State | 119 | WAC | 8 | 7 | 0.875 | 11.9 | 19.0 | 14.0 | -7.1 |
| UTSA | 120 | WAC | 8 | 5 | 0.625 | -3.0 | -3.4 | -3.2 | 0.4 |
| Team |
S&P+
Rk
|
Conference | Games | Correct |
%
Correct
|
Away
Differential
|
Home
Differential
|
Total
Differential
|
Home/
Road
Split
|
| South Alabama | 121 | Sun Belt | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | -4.0 | -8.6 | -6.3 | 4.6 |
| Memphis | 122 | CUSA | 8 | 6 | 0.750 | 6.5 | -4.1 | -1.2 | 10.7 |
| Hawaii | 123 | MWC | 7 | 7 | 1.000 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | -2.3 |
| Massachusetts | 124 | MAC | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | -4.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | -7.5 |
There are 3 Comments. Load Now.
Shortcuts to mastering the comment thread. Use wisely.
C - Next Comment
X - Mark as Read
R - Reply
Z - Mark Read & Next
Shift + C - Previous
Shift + A - Mark All Read
Comment Settings
Live comment alert: Hide it!
Comments for this post are closed.