F/+ Picks, Week 8: I smell craziness


Lots of road favorites? I smell a crazy week coming...

When the 1:00pm games ended last Saturday, the F/+ picks stood at 9-10 for the week. The rest of the way, the picks went 25-10. Just not a fast starter, I guess.

  • Week 1: 22-19 (53.7%)
    Week 2: 22-23 (48.9%)
    Week 3: 24-23 (51.1%)
    Week 4: 30-19 (61.2%)
    Week 5: 21-29-1 (42.2%)
    Week 6: 26-27-1 (49.1%)
    Week 7: 34-20 (62.9%)
  • Total: 179-160-2 (52.8%)

Those of you who have followed Football Outsiders for a while know that seven weeks is a benchmark of sorts. It's when preseason projections have been completely phased out in favor of opponent-adjusted data that is still a bit unstable here and there, and beginning last year, the seven-week mark is also when a special teams component gets added to the formulas. I hate changing anything after another good week last week, but c'est la vie. Besides, no matter what was done with the numbers, I would say another 40% week is inevitable. Week 4 was great ... and Vegas' Week 5 retribution was swift and cruel.

By the way, when you look at the spreads below, take note of this: Of this week's 55 remaining games, nine have road teams favored by at least 10.5 points. Meanwhile, 22 have road favorites overall. To me, that is a formula for a wacky week of upsets and general craziness. Should be fun.

Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Tuesday 8:00pm ESPN2 UL-Lafayette North Texas UL-Lafayette by 8.8 4.0 UL-Lafayette
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Thursday 8:00pm FSN Houston SMU Houston by 10.9 4.5 Houston
Thursday 9:00pm ESPN Oregon Arizona St. Oregon by 13.5 7.5 Oregon
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Friday 8:00pm ESPN UConn Syracuse Syracuse by 3.8 -4.0 UConn
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Saturday 12:00pm BGSU UMass BGSU by 13.6 17.0 UMass
Saturday 12:00pm ABC/ESPN2 Purdue Ohio St. Ohio St. by 22.2 -18.5 Ohio St.
Saturday 12:00pm FX Iowa St. Oklahoma St. Iowa St. by 2.2 -14.0 Iowa St.
Saturday 12:00pm Big East Rutgers Temple Rutgers by 5.9 5.5 Rutgers
Saturday 12:00pm ABC/ESPN2 Va. Tech Clemson Clemson by 4.2 -7.5 Va. Tech
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN LSU Texas A&M LSU by 0.4 3.5 Texas A&M
Saturday 12:00pm ESPNU Minnesota Wisconsin Wisconsin by 13.1 -17.0 Minnesota
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN3 NIU Akron NIU by 16.6 16.5 NIU
Saturday 12:21pm SEC Auburn Vanderbilt Vandy by 1.3 -7.0 Auburn
Saturday 12:30pm ESPN3 Wake Forest Virginia Virginia by 2.4 -3.0 Wake Forest
Saturday 1:00pm ESPN3 Army E. Michigan EMU by 2.8 3.0 EMU
Saturday 1:00pm ESPN3 FIU Troy Troy by 10.8 -7.0 Troy
Saturday 2:00pm ESPN3 San Jose St. UTSA SJSU by 19 10.5 SJSU
Saturday 3:00pm Fox Stanford California Stanford by 5.4 2.5 Stanford
Saturday 3:00pm ESPN3 B.C. Ga. Tech Ga. Tech by 11.3 -14.0 B.C.
Saturday 3:00pm ESPN3 NMSU Utah St. Utah St. by 36.2 -30.5 Utah St.
Saturday 3:30pm FAU S. Alabama USA by 6.1 -3.5 USA
Saturday 3:30pm CBS S. Carolina Florida Florida by 9.2 -3.5 Florida
Saturday 3:30pm NBC Sports UNLV Boise St. Boise St. by 20.6 -28.0 UNLV
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN2 Nebraska Northwestern NW'ern by 3.1 6.5 NW'ern
Saturday 3:30pm NBC BYU Notre Dame Notre Dame by 15 -13.0 Notre Dame
Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN3 S. Florida Louisville Louisville by 5.2 -6.5 USF
Saturday 3:30pm ESPNU N.C. St. Maryland NC St. by 0.4 3.0 Maryland
Saturday 3:30pm BTN Michigan St. Michigan Michigan by 3.5 -9.5 Michigan St.
Saturday 3:30pm FSN Rice Tulsa Tulsa by 17.3 -21.0 Rice
Saturday 3:30pm Big East Pittsburgh Buffalo Pittsburgh by 9.8 10.5 Buffalo
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN3 Ball St. C. Michigan Ball St. by 5.7 3.0 Ball St.
Saturday 3:30pm W. Michigan Kent St. Kent St. by 6.7 -3.5 Kent St.
Saturday 3:30pm CBS Sports Indiana Navy Indiana by 11.1 -2.5 Indiana
Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 Texas Tech TCU Tex. Tech by 10.2 1.0 Tex. Tech
Saturday 4:00pm ESPN3 UL-Monroe W. Ky. WKU by 3.3 -3.5 UL-Monroe
Saturday 6:00pm Pac-12 Colorado USC USC by 37.8 -40.5 Colorado
Saturday 7:00pm FCSA East Carolina UAB UAB by 11.2 3.0 UAB
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Georgia Kentucky Georgia by 22.9 27.5 Kentucky
Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU UNC Duke UNC by 10.8 10.5 UNC
Saturday 7:00pm FSN Kansas Oklahoma Oklahoma by 38.3 -35.0 Oklahoma
Saturday 7:00pm Fox Kansas St. W. Virginia Kansas St. by 11.6 -2.5 Kansas St.
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN2 MTSU Miss. St. MSU by 11.4 -19.5 MTSU
Saturday 7:00pm New Mexico Air Force Air Force by 10 -11.0 New Mexico
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Idaho La. Tech La. Tech by 29.2 -30.5 Idaho
Saturday 7:00pm CBS Sports Marshall So. Miss Marshall by 3.1 -2.5 Marshall
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN Alabama Tennessee Alabama by 27.3 20.0 Alabama
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Cincinnati Toledo Cincinnati by 5.4 7.0 Toledo
Saturday 8:00pm CSS UCF Memphis UCF by 17.5 21.0 Memphis
Saturday 8:00pm ABC/ESPN3 Baylor Texas Texas by 13.1 -10.0 Texas
Saturday 8:00pm BTN Penn St. Iowa Iowa by 8.6 -3.0 Iowa
Saturday 8:00pm ABC/ESPN3 Florida St. Miami FSU by 22.7 21.0 FSU
Saturday 8:00pm Tulane UTEP UTEP by 15 -14.0 UTEP
Saturday 10:00pm Pac-12 Washington Arizona Arizona by 10.5 -8.0 Arizona
Saturday 10:30pm ESPN2 Utah Oregon St. Oregon St. by 25.6 -10.5 Oregon St.
Saturday 10:30pm Wyoming Fresno St. Fresno St. by 16.2 -16.5 Wyoming
Saturday 10:35pm CBS Sports San Diego St. Nevada Nevada by 4.6 -6.5 SDSU

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