Look! I'm actually getting these out before the games this week! With the whole "having a baby on Wednesday" thing, the timeline got a little crunched last week. That said, the picks did pretty well, as you'll see below. Not that you saw them or could do anything about them.
Last Week's Results
|0-5 point spread
As a whole, the idea with ATS picks is to build a good win% early, then ride out the storm when Vegas actually gets a good read on all the teams. Week One went really well, but Week Two will be a bit tough. In 11 of 45 games, the spread and F/+ projections are within two points of each other; in 15 of 45, they're within three points. The trick to a successful week, I think, will be in nailing those games with a larger spread again. There are nine games with spreads between 20-30 points. Nail two-thirds of those again, and we've got ourselves a good week.
|9-Sep||10:30 PM||Missouri at Arizona State (ESPN)||-8.0||Arizona St. by 0.8||Missouri|
|10-Sep||12:00 PM||Central Michigan at Kentucky (ESPNU)||-12.5||Kentucky by 13.6||Kentucky|
|10-Sep||12:00 PM||Fla. Atlantic at Michigan State (ESPN2)||-32.0||Mich. St. by 32.2||Michigan State|
|10-Sep||12:21 PM||Mississippi State at Auburn (ESPN3)||6.5||Auburn by 19.3||Auburn|
|10-Sep||3:30 PM||California at Colorado (FCSP)||6.5||California by 1.9||Colorado|
|10-Sep||3:30 PM||Stanford at Duke (ESPNU)||21.0||Stanford by 26.2||Stanford|
|10-Sep||3:30 PM||Alabama at Penn State (ABC)||10.0||Alabama by 18.8||Alabama|
|10-Sep||3:30 PM||Hawaii at Washington (RSNW)||-6.5||Washington by 7.1||Washington|
|10-Sep||3:30 PM||TCU at Air Force (Vs)||2.0||TCU by 7.1||TCU|
|10-Sep||4:30 PM||South Carolina at Georgia (ESPN)||3.0||S. Carolina by 0.4||Georgia|
|10-Sep||5:00 PM||UNLV at Washington State||-14.0||Wazzu by 20||Wazzu|
|10-Sep||6:00 PM||Temple at Akron (ESPN3)||15.0||Temple by 10.6||Akron|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||New Mexico at Arkansas (ESPNU)||-35.5||Arkansas by 54.6||Arkansas|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||UAB at Florida (ESPN3)||-23.5||Florida by 34.8||Florida|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||Ball State at South Florida (ESPN3)||-19.5||USF by 28.1||S. Florida|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||Virginia at Indiana (BTN)||-6.5||Virginia by 8.3||Virginia|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||Navy at Western Kentucky (ESPN3)||9.5||Navy by 19.2||Navy|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||BYU at Texas (ESPN2)||-7.0||Texas by 2.4||BYU|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||Memphis at Arkansas State (ESPN3)||-15.0||ASU by 13.8||Memphis|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||UL-Lafayette at Kent State||-9.5||Kent State by 6.3||UL-Lafayette|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||Ga. Tech at Middle Tennessee (ESPN3)||10.5||Ga. Tech by 18.3||Georgia Tech|
|10-Sep||7:00 PM||UTEP at SMU (FSN)||-20.0||SMU by 13.9||UTEP|
|10-Sep||8:00 PM||Notre Dame at Michigan (ESPN)||3.5||Michigan by 1.6||Michigan|
|10-Sep||10:00 PM||San Jose State at UCLA (FSW)||-21.0||UCLA by 18.8||SJSU|
Five Picks That Make Me Queasy
- Arizona at Oklahoma State. I'm still working on figuring out how much to penalize teams when they are missing starters -- as Arizona will be with Juron Criner out this week -- but until I figure it out, I'm not going to just throw an arbitrary number out there. Arizona beats the spread by 1.2 points above, and ... well, I'm pretty sure Criner is worth at least that much. I'm not optimistic about this pick.
- Central Michigan at Kentucky. CMU is not the Dan Lefevour Chippewas we knew and loved, but ... until I see Kentucky actually play well, then last week's stinkbomb against Western Kentucky will linger.
- Oregon State at Wisconsin. This should probably go without saying, but losing to Sacramento State, then hopping two time zones to face a really good Wisconsin team does not make confident in your ability to cover, even with a 21-point spread.
- Mississippi State at Auburn. As I've mentioned before, it's going to take a while for Auburn to slide in the rankings, simply because projections still carry heavy weight in September, and ... well, Auburn's projections made me queasy to begin with. Mississippi State is far from super-human, and AU could by all means cover, but ... well, MSU > Utah State. Like Kentucky, I need to see Auburn play well before I'm even remotely confident in them.
- UTEP at SMU. I just think UTEP is awful.
Five Picks That Don't
Iowa at Iowa State. To say the least, I think the Iowa defense handles Steele Jantz and the Cyclones. After all, Northern Iowa did for the most part.
New Mexico State at Minnesota. I'm not going to overreact to what Minnesota did against USC last week (mostly because I'm not completely sold on USC), but I have full faith in Jerry Kill to coach a team to at least a 20-point win over lowly NMSU.
Alabama at Penn State. I have full faith in 'Bama until they give me a reason not to.
Toledo at Ohio State. I don't think tOSU will win by the projected 36 points, but I think they'll win by at least 20.
- Notre Dame at Michigan. I'm still very much on the Notre Dame bandwagon ... but I'm also on Michigan's. This should be an excellent game, but I think Hoke's Wolverines take it.
Straight-Up Upset Picks
Auburn (home) over Mississippi State. In terms of confidence ... on a scale of 1-10, I'd say I'm about a 5 on this one.
Cincinnati (away) over Tennessee. 3. Both teams are volatile, but I don't see UC being quite good enough to win straight-up.
UConn (away) over Vanderbilt. 7.
Michigan (home) over Notre Dame. 8.