Week Two F/+ Picks

Look! I'm actually getting these out before the games this week! With the whole "having a baby on Wednesday" thing, the timeline got a little crunched last week. That said, the picks did pretty well, as you'll see below. Not that you saw them or could do anything about them.

Last Week's Results

Week 1 Season
24-16 60.0% 24-16 60.0%
Upset Picks 3-1 75.0% 3-1 75.0%
0-5 point spread
3-3 50.0% 3-3 50.0%
5-10 points
4-2 66.7% 4-2 66.7%
10-20 points
4-4 50.0% 4-4 50.0%
20-30 points
7-4 63.6% 7-4 63.6%
30+ points
3-2 60.0% 3-2 60.0%

As a whole, the idea with ATS picks is to build a good win% early, then ride out the storm when Vegas actually gets a good read on all the teams. Week One went really well, but Week Two will be a bit tough. In 11 of 45 games, the spread and F/+ projections are within two points of each other; in 15 of 45, they're within three points. The trick to a successful week, I think, will be in nailing those games with a larger spread again. There are nine games with spreads between 20-30 points. Nail two-thirds of those again, and we've got ourselves a good week.

Date Time (ET) Game Spread
Winner ATS Pick
8-Sep 8:00 PM Arizona at Oklahoma State (ESPN) -13.0 OSU by 11.8 Arizona
9-Sep 7:00 PM Fla. International at Louisville (ESPN) -4.0 Louisville by 8.9 Louisville
9-Sep 10:30 PM Missouri at Arizona State (ESPN) -8.0 Arizona St. by 0.8 Missouri
10-Sep 12:00 PM Iowa at Iowa State 6.5 Iowa by 20.8 Iowa
10-Sep 12:00 PM Central Michigan at Kentucky (ESPNU) -12.5 Kentucky by 13.6 Kentucky
10-Sep 12:00 PM Fla. Atlantic at Michigan State (ESPN2) -32.0 Mich. St. by 32.2 Michigan State
10-Sep 12:00 PM Toledo at Ohio State (BTN) -19.0 Ohio State by 35.8 Ohio State
10-Sep 12:00 PM Oregon State at Wisconsin (ESPN) -21.0 Wisconsin by 19.3 Oregon State
10-Sep 12:00 PM San Diego State at Army (CBSSN) 9.5 SDSU by 13 SDSU
10-Sep 12:21 PM Mississippi State at Auburn (ESPN3) 6.5 Auburn by 19.3 Auburn
10-Sep 12:30 PM Rutgers at North Carolina (ESPN3) -10.0 N. Carolina by 11.3 N. Carolina
10-Sep 3:30 PM California at Colorado (FCSP) 6.5 California by 1.9 Colorado
10-Sep 3:30 PM New Mexico State at Minnesota (BTN) -20.0 Minnesota by 30.9 Minnesota
10-Sep 3:30 PM Stanford at Duke (ESPNU) 21.0 Stanford by 26.2 Stanford
10-Sep 3:30 PM Virginia Tech at East Carolina (FSN) 18.0 Va. Tech by 24.4 Virginia Tech
10-Sep 3:30 PM N.C. State at Wake Forest (ESPN3) 2.5 N.C. State by 15.5 N.C. State
10-Sep 3:30 PM Alabama at Penn State (ABC) 10.0 Alabama by 18.8 Alabama
10-Sep 3:30 PM Purdue at Rice (CBSSN) 1.0 Purdue by 7.3 Purdue
10-Sep 3:30 PM Hawaii at Washington (RSNW) -6.5 Washington by 7.1 Washington
10-Sep 3:30 PM Southern Miss at Marshall (CSS) 7.5 So. Miss by 8.4 Southern Miss
10-Sep 3:30 PM TCU at Air Force (Vs) 2.0 TCU by 7.1 TCU
10-Sep 3:30 PM Nevada at Oregon (FX) -26.5 Oregon by 19.3 Nevada
10-Sep 3:30 PM Cincinnati at Tennessee (ESPN2) -6.0 Cincinnati by 0.6 Cincinnati
10-Sep 3:30 PM Tulsa at Tulane (CST) 13.5 Tulsa by 11 Tulane
10-Sep 4:30 PM South Carolina at Georgia (ESPN) 3.0 S. Carolina by 0.4 Georgia
10-Sep 5:00 PM UNLV at Washington State -14.0 Wazzu by 20 Wazzu
10-Sep 6:00 PM Temple at Akron (ESPN3) 15.0 Temple by 10.6 Akron
10-Sep 7:00 PM New Mexico at Arkansas (ESPNU) -35.5 Arkansas by 54.6 Arkansas
10-Sep 7:00 PM UAB at Florida (ESPN3) -23.5 Florida by 34.8 Florida
10-Sep 7:00 PM Ball State at South Florida (ESPN3) -19.5 USF by 28.1 S. Florida
10-Sep 7:00 PM Virginia at Indiana (BTN) -6.5 Virginia by 8.3 Virginia
10-Sep 7:00 PM Navy at Western Kentucky (ESPN3) 9.5 Navy by 19.2 Navy
10-Sep 7:00 PM Fresno State at Nebraska (BTN) -28.0 Nebraska by 28.4 Nebraska
10-Sep 7:00 PM Houston at North Texas (ESPN3) 22.0 Houston by 13 North Texas
10-Sep 7:00 PM BYU at Texas (ESPN2) -7.0 Texas by 2.4 BYU
10-Sep 7:00 PM Memphis at Arkansas State (ESPN3) -15.0 ASU by 13.8 Memphis
10-Sep 7:00 PM Northern Illinois at Kansas (FCSC) 6.5 NIU by 14 NIU
10-Sep 7:00 PM UL-Lafayette at Kent State -9.5 Kent State by 6.3 UL-Lafayette
10-Sep 7:00 PM Ga. Tech at Middle Tennessee (ESPN3) 10.5 Ga. Tech by 18.3 Georgia Tech
10-Sep 7:00 PM UTEP at SMU (FSN) -20.0 SMU by 13.9 UTEP
10-Sep 7:30 PM Utah at USC (Vs) -9.5 USC by 11.5 USC
10-Sep 7:30 PM Connecticut at Vanderbilt (ESPN3) -2.0 UConn by 9.5 UConn
10-Sep 8:00 PM Notre Dame at Michigan (ESPN) 3.5 Michigan by 1.6 Michigan
10-Sep 8:00 PM Boston College at UCF (CBSSN) -7.0 UCF by 2.8 BC
10-Sep 10:00 PM San Jose State at UCLA (FSW) -21.0 UCLA by 18.8 SJSU

Five Picks That Make Me Queasy

  1. Arizona at Oklahoma State. I'm still working on figuring out how much to penalize teams when they are missing starters -- as Arizona will be with Juron Criner out this week -- but until I figure it out, I'm not going to just throw an arbitrary number out there. Arizona beats the spread by 1.2 points above, and ... well, I'm pretty sure Criner is worth at least that much. I'm not optimistic about this pick.
  2. Central Michigan at Kentucky. CMU is not the Dan Lefevour Chippewas we knew and loved, but ... until I see Kentucky actually play well, then last week's stinkbomb against Western Kentucky will linger.
  3. Oregon State at Wisconsin. This should probably go without saying, but losing to Sacramento State, then hopping two time zones to face a really good Wisconsin team does not make confident in your ability to cover, even with a 21-point spread.
  4. Mississippi State at Auburn. As I've mentioned before, it's going to take a while for Auburn to slide in the rankings, simply because projections still carry heavy weight in September, and ... well, Auburn's projections made me queasy to begin with. Mississippi State is far from super-human, and AU could by all means cover, but ... well, MSU > Utah State. Like Kentucky, I need to see Auburn play well before I'm even remotely confident in them.
  5. UTEP at SMU. I just think UTEP is awful.

Five Picks That Don't

  1. Iowa at Iowa State. To say the least, I think the Iowa defense handles Steele Jantz and the Cyclones. After all, Northern Iowa did for the most part.
  2. New Mexico State at Minnesota. I'm not going to overreact to what Minnesota did against USC last week (mostly because I'm not completely sold on USC), but I have full faith in Jerry Kill to coach a team to at least a 20-point win over lowly NMSU.
  3. Alabama at Penn State. I have full faith in 'Bama until they give me a reason not to.
  4. Toledo at Ohio State. I don't think tOSU will win by the projected 36 points, but I think they'll win by at least 20.
  5. Notre Dame at Michigan. I'm still very much on the Notre Dame bandwagon ... but I'm also on Michigan's. This should be an excellent game, but I think Hoke's Wolverines take it.

Straight-Up Upset Picks

  • Auburn (home) over Mississippi State. In terms of confidence ... on a scale of 1-10, I'd say I'm about a 5 on this one.
  • Cincinnati (away) over Tennessee. 3. Both teams are volatile, but I don't see UC being quite good enough to win straight-up.
  • UConn (away) over Vanderbilt. 7.
  • Michigan (home) over Notre Dame. 8.

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