Study Hall: Baylor 50, TCU 48

I just cannot let this game go. I want to watch it again.

Baylor 50, TCU 48

TCU Baylor TCU Baylor
Close % 90.1% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 70.1% 41.5% Success Rate 48.0% 48.9%
Leverage % 0.649 0.692 PPP 0.42 0.62
S&P 0.904 1.108
TOTAL
EqPts 34.5 40.2 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 39.7% 47.7% Success Rate 25.9% 45.0%
Close PPP 0.46 0.62 PPP 0.49 0.62
Close S&P 0.852 1.095 S&P 0.753 1.066
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 14.0 7.1 Number 1 1
Close Success Rate 41.4% 40.0% Turnover Pts 4.0 4.0
Close PPP 0.39 0.20 Turnover Pts Margin -0.1 +0.1
Close S&P 0.801 0.604
Line Yards/carry 3.25 3.39 Q1 S&P 1.060 0.934
Q2 S&P 0.782 1.559
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.705 2.235
EqPts 20.5 33.1 Q4 S&P 0.945 0.494
Close Success Rate 38.2% 56.7%
Close PPP 0.51 1.10 1st Down S&P 1.004 0.545
Close S&P 0.896 1.669 2nd Down S&P 1.290 1.167
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 7.7% 0.0% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.998 0.810
Projected Pt. Margin: Baylor +5.8 | Actual Pt. Margin: Baylor +2

Five Thoughts:

  1. I know everybody is using this game as a reason to write TCU off as overrated, and I guess maybe they are. But a) in replacing so many key pieces, they are going to be a better defense in November than they are now, and b) there's a decent chance Baylor is going to do this to just about everybody.

  2. In the past six years, only two teams had gained more than 30 EqPts versus TCU: Oklahoma in 2008 (30.8) and BYU in 2005 (36.3). Yes, TCU might be taking a step backwards this year, but you just have to give Baylor a ton of credit here.

  3. In the past six years, only 22 teams had managed to register a Q3 S&P over 2.000. Baylor makes it 23. They went into a shell in Q4, but they were perfection in Q2-Q3.

  4. There's a lot to like about TCU's offense as well. They were solid in terms of both running and passing, though we'll see how good these numbers look when others face the Baylor defense. Phil Bennett was once a solid defensive coordinator, but he's fighting an uphill battle with that D.

  5. One day I will figure out why some teams are amazing (to an outlier degree) on second downs and why some aren't. Baylor was below average on first downs, but they were so good on second downs that it didn't matter.

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