Study Hall: Oklahoma 23, Florida State 13
by Bill C. on Sep 20, 2011 4:30 PM EDT
in 2011 College Football Season
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I've somewhat dropped the ball this week in terms of week-in-review posts. We'll say I'm just trying to grow accustomed to my extra SBN writing. That will buy me a week of leeway, right?
Oklahoma 23, Florida State 13 |
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| FSU | Oklahoma | FSU | Oklahoma | |||
| Close % | 100.0% | STANDARD DOWNS | ||||
| Field Position % | 23.3% | 42.4% | Success Rate | 35.1% | 46.2% | |
| Leverage % | 61.7% | 78.8% | PPP | 0.13 | 0.31 | |
| S&P | 0.486 | 0.768 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||||
| EqPts | 8.9 | 16.7 | PASSING DOWNS | |||
| Close Success Rate | 30.0% | 39.4% | Success Rate | 21.7% | 14.3% | |
| Close PPP | 0.15 | 0.25 | PPP | 0.17 | 0.05 | |
| Close S&P | 0.448 | 0.646 | S&P | 0.387 | 0.194 | |
| RUSHING | TURNOVERS | |||||
| EqPts | 2.9 | 8.0 | Number | 3 | 2 | |
| Close Success Rate | 25.0% | 34.2% | Turnover Pts | 17.0 | 7.3 | |
| Close PPP | 0.15 | 0.21 | Turnover Pts Margin | -9.7 | +9.7 | |
| Close S&P | 0.396 | 0.553 | ||||
| Line Yards/carry | 1.47 | 2.49 | Q1 S&P | 0.489 | 0.835 | |
| Q2 S&P | 0.258 | 0.411 | ||||
| PASSING | Q3 S&P | 0.567 | 0.360 | |||
| EqPts | 6.0 | 8.6 | Q4 S&P | 0.484 | 0.753 | |
| Close Success Rate | 32.5% | 46.4% | ||||
| Close PPP | 0.15 | 0.31 | 1st Down S&P | 0.376 | 0.681 | |
| Close S&P | 0.474 | 0.773 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.403 | 0.760 | |
| SD/PD Sack Rate | 20.0%/10.0% | 0.0% / 10.0% | 3rd Down S&P | 0.693 | 0.339 | |
| Projected Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +17.4 | Actual Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +10 | ||||||
Five Thoughts
- This was one glorious catch-and-run away from being a blowout. (Yes, you could make the case that OU's offense doesn't snap awake with that play, and the final is a non-blowout 13-6 or something, so let me clarify: even with that one play, and even with mediocre Oklahoma offense, this was a statistical blowout.) FSU ran over three-quarters of their plays on their own side of the 50, and almost 40% of their plays were passing downs. That is not a recipe for success.
- I came away from this game much more confident in Oklahoma's defense. There were just enough new pieces to instill some doubt, but the pass rush was phenomenal, Tony Jefferson and Tom Wort were all over the place, the FSU line got no push whatsoever in terms of run-blocking, and OU had a double-digit sack rate on both standard and passing downs. Complete domination ... minus one play.
- At the same time, I came away from this game less confident in Oklahoma's offense, particularly the running game. That OU ended up with a below-average 0.25 PPP wasn't surprising -- FSU's big-play prevention is among the nation's best. But the fact that they managed only a 34.2% rushing success rate (with no real big plays) gives me pause. The line got a mediocre push, and the running backs were mediocre, at best.
- OU's passing downs offense was horrid. They passed on only 10 of 14 passing downs, meaning the predictability issue I raised last week was minimized. But they couldn't run or pass effectively on passing downs, making me question both their ability to avoid another road landmine (luckily OSU is the only top-notch team they face on the road) and Landry Jones' Heisman credentials. If you want my (non-existent) Heisman vote, you've got to make some tough plays.
- Credit where it's due, however: after two atrocious quarters of offense, and after FSU tied the game on an amazing play that made the crowd explode, the Sooners sucked it up and went 83 yards in eight plays to score what would end up the winning touchdown. That drive included a third-and-12 completion to Ryan Broyles, one of only two 'successful' plays they made on passing downs. Timing matters, and OU came through when they absolutely needed to.
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Ever consider that maybe FSU’s defense really is that good? FSU’s second team on D could start at other D1 teams.
And don’t get too excited about FSU’s defense…After Kenny Shaw went out, FSU was playing without its top 3 receivers. EJ went out early in the 3rd quarter. Chris Thompson is still recovering from a leg injury from the preseason, so he’s not as explosive as he was last season. And FSU’s O-Line has struggled all season, even against some cupcakes schools. FSU is battered and bruised and Oklahoma took advantage of a struggling, undisciplined o-line, an immobile QB (once Tricket was in), a young set of receivers, and against running backs who have struggled all season even against inferior opponents…So don’t go thinking that Oklahoma’s defense dominated against a great FSU offense. FSU’s offense has been sub-par all year.
Did you even follow either team before the game? The fact that FSU had the game tied with 5 minutes to go with all of this going against them is incredible.
The game was also only two plays away from being a “blowout” in FSU’s favor. Kenny Shaw’s first TD catch was called back for holding…Which if you look at game film, there is no holding I can see. On the scary hit where Shaw was knocked out of the game, Shaw had control of the ball…He backpedaled three times with the ball before he was even hit. It should have been a complete pass, then a personal foul which ended the play early, giving FSU the ball with a 1st and goal inside the 1.
Your analysis is awful.
Sorry you feel that way. Four responses:
1. Considering I have very recently called FSU’s defense one of the best in the country…particularly on passing downs…I would say my opinions of the FSU defense are well-established.
2. Forgive me for focusing a majority of “five points” on the team that actually won.
3. That I linked to the play that tied the game in the fourth quarter probably proves that I know the game was tied late. And … um … yes, I followed both of these teams before the game, whatever that is supposed to insinuate.
4. As a Mizzou fan who has lived through many bad calls (you may have heard about a couple of them), I respect ref outrage. I also know that once it hits the box score, it is official, and it is usually correct. If I started putting asterisks but ‘coulda woulda’ calls, my analysis would never get anywhere.
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The "one play away from a blowout" is gonna get you grief though
You seem to say that OU was one hypothetical play from a blowout, when FSU fans can look at an actual play (either the TD catch called back or the play that was called incorrectly on the field with the injury), that could have changed the final outcome of the game.
Formerly known as 'stilts'
by BenDNole on Sep 20, 2011 6:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It should be pretty obvious what I'm pointing to with that comment.
OU’s projected margin was +17 with the big play. Do projected margins count for anything? Nope. But without that play it would have been statistical domination. And no, in the end, I cannot allow myself to care about bad calls. Add a couple of the plays that have been discussed here, and OU would still have had a strong statistical edge. That’s the angle I was taking on this piece. That’s always the angle with these pieces. OU had an edge that suggested that if these teams played 10 times, the Sooners would have won a strong majority of them. That FSU came close and had such strong chances says a lot about them, but this game still spoke to OU’s strengths. Don’t know what else to tell you.
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Its just the frustration of fans...
The person who watched the game sees something the box score can’t tell you. That more then 50 yards of offense For FSU was negated by at best terrible calls and that more then 50 yards of OU offense was only allowed due to poor officiating (numerous holds all night by OU. The only way the RT could slow down Werner was holding him). Adding to that is that Fisher seemingingly was holding back some on the EJ designed runs+option and then he goes out. Playing with a backup qb you expect to get dominated.
I’m not blaming refs for a loss but with appropriate refs the box score wouldn’t indicate a blowout. OU is a very very good team and is better then FSU right now.
What would be interesting is looking at the rest of the season…and comparing these results to the rest of the schedule and I’d likely believe that FSU’s defensive performance minus that opening drive is as dominate as you’ll see against that OU offense the rest of the year.
you can't take a play out
as a stats guy you should understand why that is so
lol this analysis sucks
no wonder this site has no traffic
subscribed and now unsubscribed
"Kill a fly with an axe"
by SteadfastNole on Sep 20, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I withdraw my previous post
and I apologize for being curt. I honestly didn’t get past the first sentence and let my homerism get the better of me.
“Statistically” the data does not lie, and I see what you’re saying
Sorry again, I’m not really all that smart with numbers and data and such. Just a simple football fan
"Kill a fly with an axe"
by SteadfastNole on Sep 20, 2011 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
No need to apologize.
I’m a fiery football fan first, and I have no problem arguing with fellow fans. We care a lot about our teams, and we see games/analysis in very different ways when our teams are involved
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by Bill C. on Sep 20, 2011 9:26 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Before you criticize, you should realize what you’re reading. I agree that this game had a ridiculous amount of awful officiating against FSU (so much so that people from the program called me to bitch about it. That has never happened before).
Bill is simply analyzing what went in the game book. And this is an excellent breakdown of what went into the game book.
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by Bud Elliott on Sep 20, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, the ever present Bud made me realize I just showed my ass, and I had little to no clue what I was looking at. Even outside TN you continue to educate
"Kill a fly with an axe"
by SteadfastNole on Sep 20, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Show me where
in the NCAA rulebook it says that a personal foul that “ends the play early,” but is a live-ball foul, is treated like a dead-ball foul. On a live-ball foul, under your apparent assumption that it was a catch, it was then a fumble. FSU’s options are: accept the 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty from the previous spot (exactly the same result as the call on the field) or decline the penalty and OU gets the ball at the 20.
Whether I agree with you or not...
…this isn’t really the place to be discussing this.
I dunno man...hockey?
I think I've answered my question
and LL may be right that if the correct call had been catch and fumble, the spot would have been inside the 1. Rule 10-2-2-XX for spot of enforcement seems to be the end of the run for a fumble that occurs post-foul. On the other hand, that type of boom-boom catch and drop is usually called an incomplete pass, just as it was.
by TwoPalePonies on Sep 20, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Your'e right
But the call was still wrong about the non-catch. I get the fact that the field position would have been the same, but it serves more as a dip stick of the officiating level, and the level was low. (Get it? Like oil levels are low…..nevermind.)
I'm only 31
Go Noles
Go Bucs
And why is that?
It’s a discussion about a play in the football game discussed in the main post, directly related to a subsequent post. It’s also a football rules question on the “Football Study Hall” site.
Great analysis
Bill C
Please don’t engage.
You follow the data. It is appreciated by the silent (vast) majority. I look forward to your posts.
q
Eh, I'm staying perfectly calm about it...
…I don’t mind engaging when I’m calm.
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Look forward to Mizzou/OU preview-review
I think the Sooners are ripe, though the game is in Norman. Mizzou’s run game gashed them last year, and if they can do it again, the Sooners are beatable.
Bill
I really appreciate everything you do and I’ve patterned most of the stats we keep at TN on your ideas. I do think this highlights the limitations on what you (and I, on a smaller scale) do. In a single game, the data can be misleading—I was at the game and have watched the replay a couple times. Over the course of a season, though, the data almost always paints the appropriate picture.
Thanks again!
by Dr.KennethNoisewater on Sep 21, 2011 9:25 AM EDT reply actions
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