Depth In The Backfield (Fun Stat Nerd: Wisconsin)
by Bill C. on Jul 21, 2011 8:18 AM EDT
in Team Profiles
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UPDATE: Raw Power And The Wisconsin Badgers is now up at the mothership.
I really don't see any way Wisconsin doesn't regress at least a bit in 2011. In replacing two All-Americans on the line, a stud defensive end, and 40% of a thin-but-steady secondary, and in potentially seeing worse fumbles luck and a lesser YPP margin, Wisconsin is going to struggle to finish in the F/+ Top 12 again this fall. That's the bad news. The good news? Nobody else in the Big Ten is likely to finish in the Top 12 either. A weaker Wisconsin squad is still going to fight it out to the last minute with a weaker Ohio State squad for the
Leaders?Legends?Leaders (I think) Division title.
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You can win without three good rushers. Obviously. But when you have an identity like Wisconsin's and you have three really good runners like James White, Montee Ball and John Clay? Tough to beat. Below is a look at teams and their three leading rushers. Which teams produced the most yards among their top three? Which produced the best Adj. POE?
Again, more goes into winning than this (just look at the top four teams on the list), but when you combine it with offensive identity, you still get a nice look at the most devastating run games in the country.
(Note: Just to alleviate some confusion, the "Top 3 Adj. POE" figure below looks at the team's three leading rushers according to yards and adds up their Adj. POE. If that makes sense. Let me know if it doesn't.)
| Teams And Their Three Leading Rushers (2010) |
||||
| Offense | Top 3 Yardage |
Rk | Top 3 Adj. POE |
Rk |
| Hawaii | 1,788 | 50 | +68.7 | 1 |
| Wyoming | 1,635 | 65 | +39.6 | 2 |
| Ole Miss | 1,999 | 34 | +38.2 | 3 |
| Western Michigan | 1,173 | 106 | +36.6 | 4 |
| Oregon | 2,839 | 6 | +36.5 | 5 |
| Northern Illinois | 2,664 | 8 | +36.0 | 6 |
| Nebraska | 3,339 | 2 | +32.5 | 7 |
| Wisconsin | 3,060 | 5 | +31.4 | 8 |
| Kansas State | 2,360 | 13 | +31.2 | 9 |
| Michigan State | 1,963 | 38 | +29.2 | 10 |
| Southern Miss | 2,083 | 27 | +28.0 | 11 |
| Auburn | 3,528 | 1 | +27.0 | 12 |
| Boise State | 2,065 | 29 | +26.6 | 13 |
| San Diego State | 2,000 | 33 | +25.3 | 14 |
| Central Florida | 2,192 | 23 | +24.1 | 15 |
| Florida State | 1,855 | 46 | +23.9 | 16 |
| Middle Tennessee | 2,030 | 31 | +23.6 | 17 |
| Tulsa | 1,684 | 56 | +23.5 | 18 |
| Alabama | 1,984 | 35 | +22.1 | 19 |
| Nevada | 3,300 | 3 | +21.4 | 20 |
| Maryland | 1,674 | 58 | +21.4 | 21 |
| Florida | 1,266 | 99 | +20.1 | 22 |
| Missouri | 1,374 | 96 | +19.0 | 23 |
| Virginia Tech | 2,349 | 15 | +18.5 | 24 |
| Ohio State | 2,357 | 14 | +17.0 | 25 |
Full list after the jump.
| Offense | Top 3 Yardage |
Rk | Top 3 Adj. POE |
Rk |
| Texas A&M | 2,080 | 28 | +16.7 | 26 |
| East Carolina | 1,501 | 83 | +16.1 | 27 |
| Arkansas State | 1,493 | 84 | +16.0 | 28 |
| Kentucky | 1,607 | 71 | +15.5 | 29 |
| Baylor | 2,282 | 17 | +15.2 | 30 |
| Stanford | 2,046 | 30 | +15.2 | 31 |
| Clemson | 1,619 | 69 | +15.1 | 32 |
| Michigan | 2,755 | 7 | +15.1 | 33 |
| Pittsburgh | 2,240 | 21 | +14.3 | 34 |
| Fresno State | 1,711 | 54 | +13.4 | 35 |
| Louisville | 2,018 | 32 | +12.7 | 36 |
| South Carolina | 1,938 | 43 | +11.8 | 37 |
| Rice | 1,527 | 79 | +11.2 | 38 |
| Vanderbilt | 1,214 | 102 | +11.1 | 39 |
| Wake Forest | 1,312 | 97 | +10.7 | 40 |
| Miami (Ohio) |
1,506 | 82 | +10.7 | 41 |
| North Texas | 2,126 | 25 | +9.5 | 42 |
| Troy | 1,618 | 70 | +9.1 | 43 |
| Arizona State | 1,490 | 85 | +8.9 | 44 |
| Duke | 1,089 | 111 | +8.7 | 45 |
| Toledo | 1,781 | 51 | +8.4 | 46 |
| Oregon State | 1,655 | 60 | +8.0 | 47 |
| Central Michigan | 1,247 | 100 | +8.0 | 48 |
| LSU | 1,969 | 37 | +7.9 | 49 |
| Texas | 1,456 | 87 | +7.4 | 50 |
| Oklahoma State | 2,262 | 20 | +7.3 | 51 |
| TCU | 2,277 | 18 | +7.2 | 52 |
| Houston | 1,621 | 68 | +7.2 | 53 |
| Mississippi State | 2,383 | 12 | +6.7 | 54 |
| Eastern Michigan | 1,910 | 44 | +6.6 | 55 |
| Connecticut | 2,199 | 22 | +5.7 | 56 |
| Oklahoma | 1,860 | 45 | +5.5 | 57 |
| Georgia | 1,599 | 73 | +5.0 | 58 |
| Utah | 1,540 | 77 | +4.7 | 59 |
| UCLA | 1,817 | 48 | +4.5 | 60 |
| Washington | 2,345 | 16 | +4.5 | 61 |
| Iowa State | 1,453 | 88 | +4.1 | 62 |
| Arkansas | 1,940 | 42 | +4.1 | 63 |
| Tennessee | 1,405 | 93 | +3.6 | 64 |
| UL-Lafayette | 843 | 119 | +3.5 | 65 |
| Kent State | 1,016 | 114 | +3.5 | 66 |
| Rutgers | 1,082 | 112 | +2.5 | 67 |
| Cincinnati | 1,650 | 61 | +2.1 | 68 |
| UAB | 1,600 | 72 | +2.0 | 69 |
| Temple | 1,683 | 57 | +1.3 | 70 |
| Washington State | 1,180 | 105 | +1.2 | 71 |
| Colorado | 1,630 | 67 | +1.1 | 72 |
| Purdue | 1,406 | 92 | +0.9 | 73 |
| Florida International | 1,845 | 47 | +0.3 | 74 |
| Bowling Green | 952 | 116 | +0.2 | 75 |
| Illinois | 3,179 | 4 | +0.1 | 76 |
| North Carolina | 1,649 | 62 | +0.0 | 77 |
| Indiana | 793 | 120 | 0.0 | 78 |
| Arizona | 1,471 | 86 | -0.3 | 79 |
| Iowa | 1,692 | 55 | -1.8 | 80 |
| Northwestern | 1,430 | 89 | -2.2 | 81 |
| Notre Dame | 1,417 | 91 | -2.2 | 82 |
| N.C. State | 1,580 | 74 | -3.4 | 83 |
| Utah State | 1,718 | 53 | -3.9 | 84 |
| Texas Tech | 1,633 | 66 | -4.1 | 85 |
| Louisiana Tech | 1,564 | 76 | -4.2 | 86 |
| BYU | 1,959 | 40 | -4.6 | 87 |
| USC | 1,960 | 39 | -4.9 | 88 |
| Miami | 1,943 | 41 | -5.0 | 89 |
| Tulane | 1,519 | 80 | -5.5 | 90 |
| SMU | 2,087 | 26 | -5.8 | 91 |
| Navy | 2,388 | 11 | -7.1 | 92 |
| California | 1,641 | 63 | -7.5 | 93 |
| Colorado State | 1,105 | 109 | -7.8 | 94 |
| UTEP | 1,199 | 103 | -9.0 | 95 |
| Air Force | 2,449 | 10 | -9.1 | 96 |
| Virginia | 1,532 | 78 | -9.6 | 97 |
| Western Kentucky | 2,182 | 24 | -10.8 | 98 |
| Idaho | 1,112 | 108 | -11.2 | 99 |
| Georgia Tech | 2,647 | 9 | -11.3 | 100 |
| Kansas | 1,229 | 101 | -12.0 | 101 |
| Syracuse | 1,980 | 36 | -12.2 | 102 |
| Ohio | 1,569 | 75 | -12.2 | 103 |
| South Florida | 1,722 | 52 | -12.4 | 104 |
| Florida Atlantic | 1,284 | 98 | -12.8 | 105 |
| UNLV | 1,123 | 107 | -13.7 | 106 |
| San Jose State | 987 | 115 | -13.8 | 107 |
| Penn State | 1,639 | 64 | -14.9 | 108 |
| Akron | 1,427 | 90 | -16.3 | 109 |
| Minnesota | 1,512 | 81 | -16.5 | 110 |
| Boston College | 1,804 | 49 | -17.0 | 111 |
| Army | 2,268 | 19 | -18.9 | 112 |
| UL-Monroe | 1,383 | 94 | -19.6 | 113 |
| New Mexico State | 1,095 | 110 | -20.2 | 114 |
| West Virginia | 1,660 | 59 | -20.7 | 115 |
| New Mexico | 1,049 | 113 | -21.6 | 116 |
| Marshall | 871 | 118 | -23.1 | 117 |
| Memphis | 1,192 | 104 | -24.4 | 118 |
| Ball State | 1,375 | 95 | -25.3 | 119 |
| Buffalo | 895 | 117 | -33.3 | 120 |
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Doesn't Hawaii seem like a huge outlier to you?
There’s no question Alex Green (who provided most of that +68.7 Adj. POE) was really good, but it’s fairly easy to put up gaudy YPC numbers in the Hawaii offense. From what I saw of Hawaii’s offense last year, most of Green’s carries came off draw plays from the pistol. When you’re running against 5 or 6 in the box, all of whom expect pass, that makes big gains a lot easier. Do you think Hawaii’s offensive scheme inflates their Adj. POE numbers?
Oh, and that's a bad miss.
There is extreme context involved, that's for sure.
That’s why you won’t hear me trying to tell you Hawaii’s was the best run game or stable in the country (or even that Alex Green was the best back). Posting the numbers that Wisconsin’s (or Oregon’s, or Nebraska’s, or Kansas State’s) runners did despite everybody in the stadium knowing they were going to run is damn impressive.
Why the disconnect
For teams like Air Force and Georgia Tech? Ranking in the top 10 by yards and dropping 80-90 spots in POE seems like it should be a big deal.
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by OnDeck_Matt on Jul 21, 2011 4:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm assuming some combination of...
…a) piling up yards on bad teams and b) credit for most of the yards going to the offensive line (via Adj. Line Yards).
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