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Strength Of Schedule, 2007-10 (Fun Stat Nerd Tidbit: Oregon State)

Babyfoot_tiny by Bill C. on in Team Profiles

BOISE ID - SEPTEMBER 25: Wide receiver Darrell Catchings #15 of the Oregon State Beavers goes up for a catch over safety Jeron Johnson #23 of the Boise State Broncos at Bronco Stadium on September 25 2010 in Boise Idaho. (Photo by Otto Kitsinger III/Getty Images)

In today's Oregon State profile, I compliment them for being fearless in their non-conference scheduling. It has increased their strength of schedule to among the highest non-SEC teams in the country. I'm not sure the respect you get for scheduling like this is worth the cost of losing extra games (not in today's college football), but it's respectable nonetheless.

Taking conference schedules into account, how tough have Oregon State's slates been in recent years? To find out, I consulted my FO colleague Brian Fremeau's FEI Strength of Schedule numbers. Below are the top 100 SOS figures since 2003. Wade through the SEC teams, and you'll see Oregon State with a rather respectable position.

(Wonder how South Carolina managed an 11th-place F/+ rating last year despite five losses? Here's how.)

Top Single-Season Strength of Schedule
Ratings According to FEI SOS (2003-10)
Year Team SOS Rk
2010 South Carolina 0.013 1
2006 Kentucky 0.023 2
2010 Arkansas 0.023 3
2005 Colorado 0.026 4
2006 Arkansas 0.029 5
2004 Virginia Tech 0.030 6
2006 Alabama 0.031 7
2009 Tennessee 0.032 8
2004 Arizona State 0.034 9
2010 LSU 0.035 10
2010 Auburn 0.038 11
2009 Arkansas 0.039 12
2009 South Carolina 0.040 13
2003 Florida 0.040 14
2008 Miami 0.040 15
2010 Ole Miss 0.041 16
2009 LSU 0.041 17
2005 Arkansas 0.042 18
2010 Wake Forest 0.044 19
2010 Mississippi State 0.045 20
2005 Ohio State 0.045 21
2004 Arizona 0.045 22
2004 Notre Dame 0.046 23
2006 Florida 0.047 24
2003 Georgia 0.047 25
2009 Florida State 0.047 26
2006 LSU 0.048 27
2007 Auburn 0.049 28
2010 Clemson 0.049 29
2010 Oregon State 0.050 30
2006 Tennessee 0.051 31
2004 North Carolina 0.051 32
2006 Oregon 0.051 33
2008 South Carolina 0.052 34
2007 Oregon State 0.054 35
2010 Alabama 0.054 36
2007 Tennessee 0.055 37
2008 Ole Miss 0.056 38
2004 Oregon State 0.057 39
2009 Alabama 0.058 40

After the jump: the rest of the Top 100, plus overall SOS averages.

Star-divide

Year Team SOS Rk
2007 UCLA 0.059 41
2007 South Carolina 0.059 42
2003 Auburn 0.059 43
2007 Arizona 0.059 44
2010 Georgia 0.060 45
2010 Louisiana Monroe 0.060 46
2007 Mississippi State 0.061 47
2004 Stanford 0.061 48
2006 South Carolina 0.061 49
2005 Florida State 0.061 50
2006 Washington 0.061 51
2010 Florida State 0.064 52
2007 Washington State 0.064 53
2009 Mississippi State 0.065 54
2004 Washington 0.066 55
2005 Minnesota 0.067 56
2009 Virginia Tech 0.067 57
2006 Arizona 0.068 58
2010 Virginia Tech 0.068 59
2006 Nebraska 0.068 60
2004 Louisiana Tech 0.070 61
2009 Georgia Tech 0.070 62
2008 LSU 0.071 63
2009 Florida 0.072 64
2008 Arkansas 0.072 65
2005 USC 0.073 66
2004 LSU 0.073 67
2008 Oklahoma 0.073 68
2006 Vanderbilt 0.073 69
2004 Kentucky 0.074 70
2008 Alabama 0.076 71
2006 Georgia 0.076 72
2004 Tennessee 0.077 73
2005 Michigan State 0.077 74
2005 Michigan 0.077 75
2004 USC 0.077 76
2006 Arizona State 0.078 77
2004 Iowa 0.078 78
2006 Cincinnati 0.078 79
2009 North Carolina 0.079 80
2006 California 0.079 81
2008 Virginia 0.080 82
2005 Oklahoma 0.080 83
2008 Vanderbilt 0.081 84
2008 Florida State 0.081 85
2007 Washington 0.082 86
2010 Arizona 0.082 87
2007 California 0.082 88
2009 Kentucky 0.082 89
2008 Boston College 0.082 90
2006 Notre Dame 0.082 91
2003 South Carolina 0.082 92
2009 Miami 0.083 93
2006 Oregon State 0.083 94
2005 Northwestern 0.084 95
2008 Virginia Tech 0.084 96
2010 Tennessee 0.084 97
2009 Florida International 0.084 98
2004 California 0.084 99
2005 Texas 0.085 100

Now, here are the overall per-season SOS averages.

Average FEI SOS Ratings For All
FBS Teams (2003-10)
Team Avg Rk
Arkansas 0.067 1
LSU 0.078 2
Tennessee 0.085 3
Florida 0.086 4
South Carolina 0.092 5
Florida State 0.096 6
Georgia 0.103 7
Alabama 0.104 8
Auburn 0.104 9
Virginia Tech 0.114 10
Washington 0.114 11
Miami 0.114 12
Arizona 0.118 13
Georgia Tech 0.123 14
Kentucky 0.125 15
Notre Dame 0.126 16
Oklahoma 0.127 17
Oregon State 0.127 18
Mississippi 0.128 19
Mississippi State 0.130 20
North Carolina 0.132 21
Arizona State 0.135 22
Ohio State 0.140 23
USC 0.140 24
Stanford 0.140 25
Oregon 0.142 26
Clemson 0.143 27
Michigan 0.144 28
UCLA 0.146 29
California 0.147 30
Wake Forest 0.152 31
Vanderbilt 0.156 32
Washington State 0.160 33
Texas A&M 0.161 34
Maryland 0.166 35
Duke 0.171 36
North Carolina State 0.172 37
Penn State 0.182 38
Colorado 0.186 39
Virginia 0.187 40
Michigan State 0.189 41
Texas Tech 0.194 42
Syracuse 0.199 43
Boston College 0.205 44
Illinois 0.205 45
West Virginia 0.206 46
Cincinnati 0.206 47
Baylor 0.212 48
Wisconsin 0.214 49
Texas 0.214 50
Purdue 0.215 51
Nebraska 0.217 52
Iowa 0.221 53
Oklahoma State 0.223 54
Minnesota 0.233 55
Northwestern 0.242 56
Indiana 0.252 57
Pittsburgh 0.256 58
South Florida 0.264 59
Connecticut 0.267 60
Kansas 0.273 61
Missouri 0.275 62
Kansas State 0.278 63
Louisville 0.281 64
BYU 0.285 65
Louisiana Tech 0.303 66
Iowa State 0.309 67
East Carolina 0.313 68
San Diego State 0.313 69
Marshall 0.317 70
Rutgers 0.317 71
Fresno State 0.331 72
Louisiana Monroe 0.347 73
Colorado State 0.348 74
Air Force 0.356 75
New Mexico 0.365 76
Utah State 0.367 77
Wyoming 0.371 78
UNLV 0.374 79
Utah 0.385 80
Hawaii 0.385 81
Troy 0.389 82
Central Florida 0.395 83
Florida International 0.405 84
TCU 0.416 85
Florida Atlantic 0.420 86
Temple 0.426 87
Western Kentucky 0.426 88
Southern Mississippi 0.429 89
North Texas 0.447 90
Rice 0.447 91
Central Michigan 0.449 92
Navy 0.453 93
Houston 0.454 94
Tulsa 0.459 95
Miami (OH) 0.467 96
Boise State 0.471 97
Arkansas State 0.474 98
UAB 0.477 99
Bowling Green 0.477 100
San Jose State 0.480 101
Louisiana Lafayette 0.491 102
SMU 0.498 103
New Mexico State 0.498 104
Middle Tennessee 0.500 105
Ball State 0.501 106
Tulane 0.506 107
UTEP 0.512 108
Army 0.516 109
Idaho 0.518 110
Ohio 0.520 111
Western Michigan 0.530 112
Memphis 0.538 113
Eastern Michigan 0.541 114
Buffalo 0.541 115
Akron 0.547 116
Northern Illinois 0.555 117
Toledo 0.564 118
Kent State 0.565 119
Nevada 0.573 120

So Oregon State has, on average, played the ninth-toughest non-SEC schedule in the country over the years. They have four-year performance averages nearly identical to those of Oklahoma State (average SOS ranking: 54th) and Utah (80th), but they've won fewer games (and been given less respect) in the process.

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Nice analysis.

I suspect this is overall scheduling, correct? This would be the reason why the entire SEC is in the top 20 in the per-season SOS. Do you have a ranking for just OOC scheduling? Or what most would call, the Cupcake Ranking?

@EpicTripod
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by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 14, 2011 7:40 AM EDT reply actions  

This is indeed overall scheduling.

I just contacted Brian about non-conference SOS; it might not be very easy for him to pull.

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by Bill C. on Jul 14, 2011 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I imagine this includes bowl games?

Which would affect the OOC numbers significantly if they can be had.

Formerly known as 'stilts'

by BenDNole on Jul 14, 2011 9:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Includes bowl games and conf championship games

For non-conference scheduling, it would be possible to pull but not instantly. There are also differences in the number of non-conf games played that can skew results — Pac 12 and Big 12 teams will play three non-conf games this year, while there are teams in the WAC that will play six.

Here’s a Football Outsiders Almanac sneak peak of the top projected non-conf scheds for 2011:
1. Tulsa .154 (at Oklahoma, at Boise State, home vs Oklahoma State)
2. North Texas .255
3. Nevada .257
4. Kent State .262
5. FAU .282
6. UL-Monroe .324
7. Ball State .373
8. Utah State .434
9. Troy .441
10. Florida State .450

by Brian Fremeau on Jul 14, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

True, and the whole conference shifting thing might affect the numbers.

But I think you could probably average over each year, and then over the 2003-2010 numbers above. I can already pretty much guarantee Penn State will be near the bottom, but it’ll be interesting to see who has the brass ones on college football, outside of their conference.

@EpicTripod
SBN - Pittsburgh
Success With Honor

by Jeff Junstrom on Jul 14, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Looks interesting. Stupid scheduling for FSU in 2012.

BTW, as an example of how Bowl games affect these numbers. According to the 2009 FEI data, Alabama had a SOS of 0.089 before the bowl game, which would have not made the Top 100 hardest schedules. After the bowl game they jumped to 0.058 and 40th overall.

I’m not saying that CG and Bowls shouldn’t be included, but it might be interesting to see what type of regular season SOS ‘allowed’ those teams to get to those post-season games.

Formerly known as 'stilts'

by BenDNole on Jul 14, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is great information!

I think this site is fantastic and appreciate your work Bill. This only confirms what I knew to be true about FSU’s schedule, since we are in the ACC we get lumped into not having a tough schedule, when in reality the Noles play a schedule as hard as anyone’s. Which certainly not a great idea if you want to play for a national title. I would be very interested to see what the OOC schedule and regular season SOS number look like.

by NationWideNole on Jul 14, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can be done

Florida won two national championships with a harder schedule that FSU. Find another excuse.

by JSN on Jul 15, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

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