Fun Stat Nerd Tidbit: Kentucky - More On Targets
by Bill C. on Jun 8, 2011 7:25 AM EDT
in Team Profiles
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PrintYesterday, we looked at an Arizona State team that had one of the smallest combined target rates for their top three targets, so today we'll use Kentucky as a reason to look at receiving duos. In losing receivers Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews, Kentucky has to replace a duo that accounted for 51% of the team's targets in 2010, 18th-most in the country.
Teams With Highest Target Rates Among Top Two Receivers
1. Western Michigan (64.0%, Juan Nunez and Jordan White)
2. Navy (57.2%, Greg Jones and Gee Gee Greene)
3. San Diego State (54.7%, DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown)
4. Missouri (54.4%, T.J. Moe and Michael Egnew)
5. Washington (53.8%, Jermaine Kearse and D'Andre Goodwin)
6. Cincinnati (53.3%, Armon Binns and D.J. Woods)
7. Kent State (53.0%, Sam Kirkland and Tyshon Goode)
8. Florida Atlantic (52.8%, Lestar Jean and Rob Housler)
9. Bowling Green (52.3%, Kamar Jorden and Tyrone Pronty)
10. Illinois (52.1%, A.J. Jenkins and Jarred Fayson)
11. Washington State (51.9%, Marquess Wilson and Jared Karstetter)
12. Nebraska (51.5%, Brandon Kinnie and Niles Paul)
13. Buffalo (51.5%, Marcus Rivers and Terrell Jackson)
14. SMU (51.4%, Cole Beasley and Aldrick Robinson)
15. Ohio State (51.4%, DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher)
16. Michigan (51.2%, Roy Roundtree and Darryl Stonum)
17. South Carolina (50.8%, Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley)
18. Kentucky (50.6%, Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews)
19. Toledo (50.6%, Eric Page and Adonis Thomas)
20. California (49.5%, Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen)
Average Passing S&P+ rank of the teams on this list: 57.9.
Average Passing S&P+ rank of the teams at the bottom of the list: 81.7.
Apparently it's not a good idea to be on either extreme of this list, which makes sense. Focusing too much on two guys will make you predictable, but having no go-to options isn't good either. But if you have to skew in one direction, skew higher. As you'll see after the jump, five of the top ten Passing S&P+ teams ranked in the Top 25 of this list, while only one top ten Passing S&P+ team ranked in the bottom 45.
Complete list after the jump.
| Rk | Team | Comb. Target Rate, Top Two Receivers |
Passing S&P+ Rk |
| 1 | Western Michigan | 64.0% | 79 |
| 2 | Navy | 57.2% | 26 |
| 3 | San Diego State | 54.7% | 24 |
| 4 | Missouri | 54.4% | 34 |
| 5 | Washington | 53.8% | 18 |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 53.3% | 27 |
| 7 | Kent State | 53.0% | 113 |
| 8 | Florida Atlantic | 52.8% | 71 |
| 9 | Bowling Green | 52.3% | 114 |
| 10 | Illinois | 52.1% | 73 |
| 11 | Washington State | 51.9% | 67 |
| 12 | Nebraska | 51.5% | 63 |
| 13 | Buffalo | 51.5% | 110 |
| 14 | SMU | 51.4% | 58 |
| 15 | Ohio State | 51.4% | 16 |
| 16 | Michigan | 51.2% | 5 |
| 17 | South Carolina | 50.8% | 9 |
| 18 | Kentucky | 50.6% | 33 |
| 19 | Toledo | 50.6% | 60 |
| 20 | California | 50.5% | 106 |
| 21 | Indiana | 50.3% | 41 |
| 22 | Connecticut | 49.5% | 96 |
| 23 | USC | 49.4% | 37 |
| 24 | Auburn | 49.3% | 1 |
| 25 | Boise State | 48.9% | 3 |
| 26 | West Virginia | 48.9% | 42 |
| 27 | Temple | 48.7% | 90 |
| 28 | Miami-OH | 48.5% | 91 |
| 29 | Army | 48.5% | 94 |
| 30 | Pittsburgh | 48.4% | 25 |
| 31 | Hawaii | 48.1% | 28 |
| 32 | Miami-FL | 48.0% | 38 |
| 33 | Rutgers | 47.5% | 92 |
| 34 | Oregon | 47.4% | 21 |
| 35 | Iowa | 47.3% | 23 |
| 36 | Virginia Tech | 47.0% | 10 |
| 37 | Kansas | 46.8% | 120 |
| 38 | East Carolina | 46.8% | 32 |
| 39 | Oklahoma | 46.7% | 7 |
| 40 | LSU | 46.3% | 59 |
| 41 | Oklahoma State | 46.3% | 8 |
| 42 | Alabama | 45.5% | 4 |
| 43 | Virginia | 45.4% | 80 |
| 44 | Georgia Tech | 45.2% | 104 |
| 45 | Maryland | 45.2% | 39 |
| 46 | Minnesota | 44.8% | 51 |
| 47 | San Jose State | 44.5% | 88 |
| 48 | Nevada | 44.2% | 12 |
| 49 | Texas A&M | 44.0% | 36 |
| 50 | South Florida | 43.6% | 81 |
| 51 | New Mexico State | 43.5% | 115 |
| 52 | Notre Dame | 43.5% | 35 |
| 53 | Wyoming | 43.1% | 84 |
| 54 | Houston | 43.0% | 65 |
| 55 | Tennessee | 42.8% | 43 |
| 56 | Florida International | 42.7% | 64 |
| 57 | Wake Forest | 42.7% | 103 |
| 58 | Mississippi State | 42.6% | 55 |
| 59 | New Mexico | 42.6% | 119 |
| 60 | Central Florida | 42.3% | 50 |
| 61 | Duke | 42.3% | 57 |
| 62 | Western Kentucky | 42.2% | 116 |
| 63 | Ohio | 41.9% | 62 |
| 64 | UL-Monroe | 41.9% | 89 |
| 65 | Akron | 41.9% | 118 |
| 66 | Michigan State | 41.8% | 20 |
| 67 | Colorado | 41.5% | 40 |
| 68 | UNLV | 41.4% | 66 |
| 69 | Oregon State | 41.4% | 15 |
| 70 | Florida State | 41.1% | 11 |
| 71 | Baylor | 41.1% | 13 |
| 72 | Central Michigan | 40.8% | 93 |
| 73 | Northwestern | 40.4% | 77 |
| 74 | Penn State | 40.2% | 54 |
| 75 | Stanford | 40.1% | 2 |
| 76 | North Texas | 39.9% | 102 |
| 77 | Georgia | 39.7% | 22 |
| 78 | Wisconsin | 39.6% | 14 |
| 79 | Arkansas State | 39.2% | 82 |
| 80 | Kansas State | 39.2% | 48 |
| 81 | Iowa State | 39.0% | 75 |
| 82 | Air Force | 39.0% | 29 |
| 83 | Utah | 38.7% | 19 |
| 84 | Arizona | 38.7% | 31 |
| 85 | Syracuse | 38.7% | 100 |
| 86 | TCU | 38.4% | 17 |
| 87 | Fresno State | 38.2% | 52 |
| 88 | Ole Miss | 38.0% | 49 |
| 89 | Northern Illinois | 37.8% | 46 |
| 90 | Texas | 37.6% | 107 |
| 91 | Texas Tech | 37.6% | 30 |
| 92 | Marshall | 37.5% | 78 |
| 93 | Memphis | 37.1% | 105 |
| 94 | Troy | 36.9% | 53 |
| 95 | Louisiana Tech | 36.8% | 83 |
| 96 | UCLA | 36.2% | 111 |
| 97 | Eastern Michigan | 36.2% | 70 |
| 98 | Tulsa | 36.1% | 69 |
| 99 | Clemson | 36.0% | 72 |
| 100 | NC State | 35.9% | 45 |
| 101 | UTEP | 35.9% | 98 |
| 102 | Utah State | 35.9% | 99 |
| 103 | Ball State | 35.8% | 108 |
| 104 | Purdue | 35.5% | 109 |
| 105 | Boston College | 35.3% | 97 |
| 106 | Tulane | 34.8% | 101 |
| 107 | North Carolina | 34.6% | 44 |
| 108 | BYU | 34.1% | 86 |
| 109 | Florida | 34.0% | 61 |
| 110 | Arkansas | 33.6% | 6 |
| 111 | Vanderbilt | 33.2% | 117 |
| 112 | Louisville | 32.9% | 56 |
| 113 | Southern Miss | 31.9% | 74 |
| 114 | UL-Lafayette | 31.3% | 95 |
| 115 | UAB | 31.2% | 68 |
| 116 | Rice | 30.7% | 76 |
| 117 | Colorado State | 29.5% | 87 |
| 118 | Arizona State | 28.5% | 47 |
| 119 | Idaho | 28.4% | 85 |
| 120 | Middle Tennessee | 27.7% | 112 |
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I wonder what those numbers would look like
adjusted by formation.
"Be polite to everyone you meet, but be prepared to kill anyone"-tc16cav
by otisnixon'sparty on Jun 8, 2011 8:13 PM EDT reply actions
Unfortunately, we're not going to know.
Charting data is all but nonexistent, so target data will be slightly limited in relevance by lack of formation and who-was-in-for-how-many-plays data. It still has a story to tell, though.
I know
just curious. Everything has outliers, but I bet it would be good, more illustrative than predictive.
"Be polite to everyone you meet, but be prepared to kill anyone"-tc16cav
by otisnixon'sparty on Jun 8, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
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