Fun Stat Nerd Tidbit: BYU - The Late-Season Surge

Few teams, if any, improved more over the final third of the season (as compared to the opening third) as BYU. The Cougars started out 1-4, with Adj. Losses in each of their first five contests, then rallied; they scored an Adj. Win in each of their final eight games and rallied to finish 7-6 overall.

With Adj. Score, we can rather easily look at a team's development throughout the course of the season; we do this every day in our team profiles. Using Adj. Score, then, let's take a look at which teams changed the most from September to November.

Below is a list of FBS teams ranked by how much they improved (in terms of Adj. Scoring Margin) in November and beyond as compared to the first five weeks of the season (September and the first weekend in October). Top 25 above the fold, everybody else after. We've said before that your late-season performance is telling as it pertains to the next season. Who surged and who regressed?

Team Early Adj.
Margin
Rk Late Adj.
Margin
Rk Change Rk
Northern Illinois -3.9 74 23.0 5 26.8 1
BYU -10.1 98 14.9 14 25.0 2
Miami-OH -10.8 105 12.1 19 23.0 3
Western Michigan -10.3 99 7.3 31 17.5 4
Tulsa -7.1 85 9.9 24 17.0 5
Boise State 17.0 12 33.7 1 16.7 6
Ball State -16.1 115 0.5 57 16.6 7
Notre Dame 4.8 42 20.0 8 15.2 8
Louisville -7.4 86 7.2 33 14.6 9
Stanford 12.5 20 26.8 3 14.3 10
Wisconsin 8.4 28 21.4 6 13.0 11
Arkansas State -8.5 89 4.3 41 12.8 12
Oklahoma 5.2 40 17.4 11 12.2 13
TCU 19.1 6 31.1 2 12.0 14
West Virginia 8.0 29 19.5 9 11.5 15
Rice -11.8 107 -0.4 62 11.4 16
Minnesota -7.9 88 2.9 46 10.8 17
San Jose State -16.6 116 -6.3 93 10.3 18
Western Kentucky -15.4 114 -5.4 89 10.0 19
Wyoming -9.5 95 0.2 59 9.7 20
UL-Monroe -16.9 117 -7.4 98 9.5 21
Central Florida -1.6 64 7.2 34 8.7 22
Washington 1.3 58 9.5 25 8.2 23
Washington State -16.9 118 -8.8 103 8.1 24
Boston College -4.8 80 3.0 45 7.8 25

Everybody else after the jump.

 

 

Team Early Adj.
Margin
Rk Late Adj.
Margin
Rk Change Rk
Tulane -11.4 106 -3.7 76 7.8 26
Kent State -8.6 90 -0.8 64 7.7 27
Toledo -4.7 78 2.9 48 7.6 28
Akron -18.2 119 -10.8 106 7.4 29
Nevada 10.9 21 16.9 12 6.1 30
New Mexico -23.8 120 -17.9 114 6.0 31
North Texas -8.9 92 -3.1 75 5.8 32
Texas Tech -4.7 79 1.0 51 5.7 33
Georgia 7.1 33 12.6 18 5.5 34
Florida International -4.6 77 0.9 54 5.5 35
Ohio -10.6 102 -5.3 88 5.3 36
Pittsburgh 2.4 54 7.7 29 5.2 37
Navy 0.7 60 5.7 37 5.0 38
Marshall -8.9 91 -4.3 83 4.6 39
Maryland 4.4 45 8.8 28 4.4 40
San Diego State 7.8 31 12.1 20 4.3 41
NC State 0.2 61 4.5 40 4.2 42
LSU 10.2 25 13.9 16 3.8 43
Mississippi State 3.6 48 7.3 30 3.7 44
UTEP -10.5 100 -6.8 96 3.7 45
Louisiana Tech -9.7 97 -6.3 92 3.4 46
Hawaii 3.1 52 6.2 36 3.1 47
Indiana -9.4 94 -7.0 97 2.4 48
Purdue -10.6 101 -8.5 102 2.1 49
Georgia Tech -3.0 70 -1.0 65 2.0 50
Auburn 19.3 5 21.2 7 1.9 51
Troy -0.1 62 1.7 50 1.8 52
Temple -4.5 76 -2.7 73 1.8 53
Iowa State -5.4 81 -3.7 78 1.7 54
North Carolina 3.1 51 4.2 42 1.1 55
Tennessee 2.4 55 2.7 49 0.3 56
Arkansas 17.8 10 18.1 10 0.2 57
Alabama 25.8 1 25.8 4 0.0 58
Northwestern -2.4 67 -2.4 72 0.0 59
East Carolina -5.6 82 -5.7 90 -0.1 60
South Carolina 10.6 23 10.5 23 -0.1 61
Fresno State -1.7 66 -2.4 71 -0.7 62
Middle Tennessee -6.7 84 -7.7 100 -1.0 63
Ole Miss -3.0 69 -4.0 82 -1.0 64
Kansas -13.0 111 -14.1 110 -1.1 65
Clemson 4.6 43 3.3 44 -1.2 66
Oklahoma State 16.0 13 14.8 15 -1.2 67
Texas A&M 13.0 18 11.2 21 -1.8 68
Duke -4.3 75 -6.4 94 -2.2 69
Central Michigan -2.5 68 -4.7 87 -2.2 70
Rutgers -1.6 65 -3.9 79 -2.3 71
Army -3.4 73 -6.3 91 -2.8 72
UNLV -10.6 103 -13.6 108 -2.9 73
Memphis -13.4 112 -16.5 111 -3.1 74
Southern Miss 7.9 30 4.8 39 -3.2 75
Cincinnati -1.3 63 -4.4 85 -3.2 76
Kansas State 4.1 47 0.7 56 -3.4 77
Virginia Tech 10.7 22 7.3 32 -3.5 78
Penn State 4.3 46 0.8 55 -3.5 79
Arizona State 6.7 35 2.9 47 -3.8 80
Houston 1.4 57 -2.7 74 -4.1 81
New Mexico State -15.2 113 -19.3 117 -4.2 82
Michigan 9.6 27 5.4 38 -4.3 83
Wake Forest -9.5 96 -13.9 109 -4.4 84
Illinois 5.6 39 1.0 52 -4.6 85
Connecticut 4.4 44 -0.2 61 -4.7 86
Baylor 5.8 38 1.0 53 -4.8 87
UL-Lafayette -12.0 108 -17.0 113 -5.0 88
South Florida 3.6 49 -2.2 70 -5.8 89
Colorado 2.3 56 -3.9 81 -6.3 90
UAB -3.2 71 -9.7 104 -6.4 91
Florida State 15.8 14 9.2 26 -6.5 92
Eastern Michigan -12.7 110 -19.2 116 -6.6 93
SMU 4.8 41 -2.0 68 -6.8 94
Colorado State -12.5 109 -19.6 118 -7.0 95
Miami-FL 17.9 9 10.8 22 -7.1 96
Florida Atlantic -9.0 93 -16.5 112 -7.5 97
Ohio State 24.1 2 16.6 13 -7.5 98
Air Force 6.4 36 -1.5 66 -7.9 99
Idaho 0.9 59 -7.6 99 -8.6 100
Florida 12.7 19 3.4 43 -9.3 101
Utah State -3.3 72 -12.7 107 -9.4 102
Bowling Green -10.7 104 -20.3 120 -9.5 103
Syracuse 3.5 50 -6.7 95 -10.2 104
Texas 7.0 34 -3.7 77 -10.7 105
Oregon 23.6 3 12.7 17 -10.9 106
Arizona 18.1 8 7.1 35 -11.0 107
Vanderbilt -7.5 87 -18.8 115 -11.2 108
USC 7.7 32 -4.4 84 -12.1 109
Kentucky 10.3 24 -2.0 69 -12.3 110
Missouri 21.3 4 8.9 27 -12.4 111
UCLA 2.8 53 -10.7 105 -13.5 112
California 13.6 15 -0.2 60 -13.8 113
Oregon State 10.1 26 -3.9 80 -14.0 114
Buffalo -6.0 83 -20.0 119 -14.0 115
Virginia 6.2 37 -8.1 101 -14.3 116
Utah 13.6 16 -1.6 67 -15.2 117
Nebraska 17.1 11 0.5 58 -16.6 118
Michigan State 13.5 17 -4.4 86 -17.9 119
Iowa 18.6 7 -0.8 63 -19.4 120

The three largest regressions all belonged to teams now in the Big Ten Legends division. Is it any wonder why our projections think Michigan could be a division darkhorse?

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