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Compu-Picks looks at the last eight years of turnover data,and discovers:
1) Turnover improvement very strongly correlates to record improvement.
2) The turnover margin from one year generally has a very small correlation with the turnover margin for the next year.
And for those of you who love big data tables, here's the full eight-year list of turnovers by program (this was the data table that drove my calculations):Turnover Margin - by team by year
| TEAM NAME | Average | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| VIRGINIA TECH | 9.8 | 19 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -1 |
| USC | 9.6 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| FLORIDA | 8.8 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 7 |
| OKLAHOMA | 8.5 | 14 | 4 | 23 | 8 | -1 | -1 | 4 | 17 |
| ALABAMA | 7.8 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
| SOUTHERN MISS | 7.6 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -1 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 5 |
| BOISE ST | 7.5 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 11 | -8 | 10 | 10 |
| UTAH | 7.4 | -1 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 8 | -1 | 15 | 9 |
| AIR FORCE | 7.3 | 5 | 22 | 13 | 10 | 8 | -7 | 1 | 6 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | 7.3 | -5 | -2 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 16 |
| TCU | 6.6 | 9 | 2 | 13 | -7 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 4 |
| WAKE FOREST | 5.9 | 0 | -4 | 17 | 9 | 13 | -2 | 7 | 7 |
| OHIO STATE | 5.6 | 15 | 17 | 16 | -3 | 9 | -9 | -1 | 1 |
| MISSOURI | 5.1 | 11 | 4 | -4 | 13 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 11 |
| IOWA | 4.5 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 8 | -11 | -1 | 13 | 4 |
| NAVY | 4.4 | 7 | 9 | 15 | -2 | 2 | -6 | 3 | 7 |
| BOSTON COLLEGE | 3.5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -4 | 0 | 3 |
| N ILLINOIS | 3.3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | -17 | 2 | -1 | 8 | 14 |
| LSU | 3.1 | 8 | 4 | -1 | 20 | 0 | -9 | -2 | 5 |
| NOTRE DAME | 3.1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| OREGON | 3.1 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -10 | 13 | -2 | -5 |
| PITTSBURGH | 3.1 | 1 | 10 | -3 | -5 | 8 | -4 | 13 | 5 |
| CALIFORNIA | 2.9 | 2 | 4 | 15 | -3 | 6 | -6 | 2 | 3 |
| CONNECTICUT | 2.9 | 12 | 3 | -4 | 14 | -1 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| SAN JOSE ST | 2.9 | -7 | -4 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| TEXAS | 2.9 | -12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| TEXAS A&M | 2.9 | -5 | -2 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -11 |
| CLEMSON | 2.8 | -3 | 6 | -1 | 13 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 4 |
| MINNESOTA | 2.6 | 2 | -1 | 12 | -15 | 18 | -1 | 7 | -1 |
| BOWLING GREEN | 2.5 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 15 | -6 |
| IOWA ST | 2.5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | -7 | -5 | 14 | 10 | -6 |
| GEORGIA | 2.4 | 10 | -16 | -3 | 9 | -1 | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| TENNESSEE | 2.4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -7 | 6 | 3 |
| WISCONSIN | 2.4 | 14 | 3 | -8 | -2 | 0 | 13 | 2 | -3 |
| NEVADA | 2.3 | 5 | -3 | 1 | -3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| RUTGERS | 2.1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | -6 | 11 | -3 | -7 | -6 |
| OKLAHOMA ST | 2.0 | 12 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 5 | -15 | 16 | -4 |
| MIDDLE TENN | 1.9 | -19 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 6 | -6 | 2 |
| ARKANSAS | 1.8 | 1 | 15 | -9 | 4 | -4 | -1 | -3 | 11 |
| BALL ST | 1.8 | -5 | -7 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 |
| E CAROLINA | 1.8 | -7 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0 | -4 | -12 |
| FLORIDA ST | 1.8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -8 | -4 | 7 | 8 |
| STANFORD | 1.8 | 13 | 0 | -4 | 3 | -11 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| TOLEDO | 1.6 | 11 | -10 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| LA TECH | 1.5 | -5 | 7 | 9 | 1 | -8 | 13 | 0 | -5 |
| LOUISVILLE | 1.3 | 3 | -3 | -12 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| TULSA | 1.3 | 17 | -2 | -5 | -6 | -5 | 19 | -11 | 3 |
| W KENTUCKY | 1.3 | 3 | -12 | -1 | 2 | -4 | 4 | 8 | 10 |
| C MICHIGAN | 1.0 | -11 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | -4 | -4 |
| ARIZONA ST | 0.9 | -6 | -2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 7 | 5 | -4 |
| PENN ST | 0.8 | -4 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -6 |
| AUBURN | 0.6 | 5 | 1 | -8 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 4 | 1 |
| KENTUCKY | 0.6 | -4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 15 | -9 | -2 | -1 |
| VIRGINIA | 0.5 | -7 | 0 | -7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| UAB | 0.4 | -6 | 9 | -1 | -5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| GEORGIA TECH | 0.3 | -6 | 8 | 2 | -4 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 2 |
| MICHIGAN ST | 0.3 | 5 | -6 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -1 | -10 | 11 |
| FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 0.3 | -9 | 1 | -9 | 18 | 1 | -7 | 0 | 7 |
| AKRON | 0.1 | -6 | -5 | 6 | -1 | 1 | -7 | 6 | 7 |
| NEW MEXICO | 0.0 | -12 | -6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 5 |
| OREGON ST | -0.1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 | -8 |
| PURDUE | -0.1 | -6 | -5 | -3 | 1 | -1 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| SYRACUSE | -0.1 | -4 | -6 | -1 | -6 | 11 | -4 | 2 | 7 |
| TROY | -0.1 | -1 | -6 | 6 | -1 | -5 | -9 | 11 | 4 |
| INDIANA | -0.3 | -7 | 7 | 1 | 2 | -4 | -8 | 4 | 3 |
| MICHIGAN | -0.4 | -10 | -12 | -10 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| ARIZONA | -0.5 | -4 | -1 | 6 | -1 | 7 | -9 | 3 | -5 |
| KANSAS | -0.5 | -8 | -5 | 4 | 21 | -5 | -8 | 4 | -7 |
| OHIO UNIVERSITY | -0.5 | -7 | 13 | -12 | 2 | -4 | 4 | 1 | -1 |
| VANDERBILT | -0.5 | -4 | 3 | 9 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 4 | -10 |
| MIAMI OH | -0.6 | 11 | -24 | -12 | -3 | 0 | 13 | -10 | 20 |
| NORTHWESTERN | -0.6 | -1 | 4 | -3 | -9 | -7 | 9 | 4 | -2 |
| UCF | -0.8 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 12 | -3 | -22 |
| MEMPHIS | -1.0 | -13 | -9 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -4 |
| KANSAS ST | -1.1 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 4 | -4 | -6 | -6 | -1 |
| ARKANSAS ST | -1.3 | 1 | -5 | 9 | -4 | -4 | 5 | -9 | -3 |
| HOUSTON | -1.3 | -6 | 4 | -6 | -7 | 9 | -4 | 6 | -6 |
| MARYLAND | -1.3 | 15 | -6 | -8 | 8 | -6 | -5 | -9 | 1 |
| TEXAS TECH | -1.3 | -3 | -6 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 9 | -5 | -8 |
| UTEP | -1.3 | -5 | -3 | 12 | 9 | 0 | -10 | 2 | -15 |
| BYU | -1.4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 14 | 2 | -10 | -14 |
| COLORADO | -1.5 | 0 | -6 | -7 | -4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | -6 |
| MIAMI (FLA) | -1.5 | -8 | 0 | -10 | -6 | -3 | 5 | 14 | -4 |
| USF | -1.5 | -3 | 0 | -8 | 9 | -4 | 5 | -10 | -1 |
| TEMPLE | -1.5 | -6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -9 | -8 | 2 | 5 |
| BUFFALO | -1.6 | -8 | -7 | 19 | 3 | -4 | -15 | 1 | -2 |
| S CAROLINA | -1.8 | 0 | -4 | -11 | -7 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| W MICHIGAN | -1.8 | 3 | -6 | -7 | -5 | 12 | 6 | -13 | -4 |
| CINCINNATI | -2.0 | -15 | 9 | -8 | 16 | -6 | -7 | -5 | 0 |
| DUKE | -2.0 | -10 | 2 | 5 | -3 | -8 | -8 | 2 | 4 |
| E MICHIGAN | -2.0 | -11 | -3 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 10 | -9 | -6 |
| NEBRASKA | -2.0 | -1 | 5 | -11 | -17 | 0 | -2 | -13 | 23 |
| UCLA | -2.0 | -11 | 6 | -10 | -4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | -1 |
| UTAH ST | -2.0 | -5 | 6 | -1 | 2 | -6 | -2 | -6 | -4 |
| LOUISIANA LFT (SW) | -2.1 | -3 | 3 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -4 | -3 | 5 |
| UL MONROE (NE) | -2.1 | -6 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 | -1 | -19 |
| KENT ST | -2.3 | 0 | -2 | -3 | -11 | 3 | -11 | -1 | 7 |
| RICE | -2.4 | -7 | -9 | 15 | -2 | 8 | -17 | -4 | -3 |
| SAN DIEGO ST | -2.9 | -6 | -10 | -6 | 6 | -7 | 2 | -1 | -1 |
| HAWAII | -3.0 | 12 | -11 | -7 | -6 | 1 | -3 | -2 | -8 |
| MISS ST | -3.4 | 7 | -5 | -4 | 0 | -5 | 2 | -1 | -21 |
| UNLV | -3.4 | -1 | -3 | 0 | 1 | -11 | -8 | -17 | 12 |
| WASH ST | -3.4 | -1 | -7 | -25 | -2 | 6 | -5 | -1 | 8 |
| N CAROLINA | -3.5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | -11 | -1 | -4 | -15 |
| WYOMING | -3.5 | -2 | 8 | -22 | -12 | -4 | -12 | 6 | 10 |
| BAYLOR | -3.6 | 0 | -5 | 16 | -18 | -7 | 5 | -15 | -5 |
| MISSISSIPPI | -3.8 | -6 | -7 | -2 | -10 | -3 | -5 | -3 | 6 |
| COLORADO ST | -4.4 | -8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -7 | 5 | -12 | -15 |
| N TEXAS ST | -4.6 | -3 | -14 | -17 | -11 | -15 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| N CAROLINA ST | -4.8 | 7 | -11 | 8 | -16 | -11 | 0 | -17 | 2 |
| FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL | -4.8 | 4 | -4 | 4 | -14 | -9 | -8 | -6 | -5 |
| FRESNO ST | -4.9 | -11 | -10 | -11 | -9 | -6 | -4 | 7 | 5 |
| ARMY | -5.0 | 16 | 5 | -14 | -10 | -18 | -2 | 3 | -20 |
| IDAHO | -5.4 | 2 | -8 | -14 | -9 | -1 | -6 | -2 | -5 |
| WASHINGTON | -5.8 | 2 | 4 | -17 | -1 | -8 | -3 | -19 | -4 |
| TULANE | -6.3 | -2 | -16 | -5 | -3 | -11 | -12 | -6 | 5 |
| ILLINOIS | -6.8 | 8 | -4 | -6 | -2 | -15 | -11 | -6 | -18 |
| MARSHALL | -7.0 | -6 | -4 | -4 | -10 | -9 | -6 | 2 | -19 |
| SMU | -7.3 | -12 | 2 | -13 | -9 | 1 | 5 | -19 | -13 |
| N MEXICO ST | -9.1 | -6 | -10 | -6 | -15 | -10 | -23 | 5 | -8 |
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