The Toolbox: Adj. POE

Today my most recent Varsity Numbers column went up. The topic: POE, or Points Over Expected.

POE stands for "Points Over Expected." The idea for POE is simple: It compares a runner's production (in terms of EqPts) to the production that would have been expected of an average back given the same carries against the same opponents. A runner with, say, a plus-6.0 Adj. POE produced the equivalent of a touchdown more value than the average FBS running back would have with the same carries.

POE = EqPts - Expected EqPts.

Last year, we added an adjustment to account for the quality of a runner's offensive line (based on the team's Adj. Line Yards ratings). So below, you will see a raw POE figure and the more comprehensive Adj. POE figure. Backs are ranked by Adj. POE.

To avoid cluttering up the column with too much data -- while still hoping to provide as much data as one would want to see -- I figured I could use Study Hall as a warehouse of sorts. Below the jump is a complete listing of Adj. POE rankings for 2010, separated into two tables: one showing all runners who piled up at least 100 carries in 2010, and another showing runners who totaled between 50 and 99.

Later today, I'll do the same for the other measure in the column, Highlight Yards. If you notice any errors, please do not hesitate to pass them along; there are just enough manual steps in this process to introduce the possibility of error on my part. Also, as mentioned in the column itself, thanks to Marty at cfbstats.com, we should have a Receiver POE figure to unveil sometime this summer. Huzzah!

Now, for those who toted the ball between 50 and 99 times. As you'll see, this list consists basically of quarterbacks, receivers and all-purpose backs, and possibly a few running backs who should have gotten a few more carries. (And a few who should have probably not received any at all.)