The party continues with a season in which the numbers came together sooooooo much better than in 2007. The correlation between F/+ and win percentage in 2007: 0.826. The correlation in 2008: 0.888. Unlike 2007, teams in 2008 were actually allowed to occasionally be good at offense AND defense.
New 2009 S&P+ Rankings
Official 2009 F/+ Rankings
Expanded 2009 Off. S&P+ Rankings
Expanded 2009 Def. S&P+ Rankings
The F/+ Top 40 for 2009 is below. The entire list can be found at Outsiders. Some quick notes:
- The Texas ranking fascinates me. They were actually slightly worse in 2009 than they were in 2008 (when they barely missed the title game), and their offense was actually no more than good. (As I've written before, the "Greg Davis isn't the right guy for offensive coordinator" cracks were beginning to show well before 2009. They just had Passing Downs Magician Colt McCoy™ to dig them out of holes in 2008-09.
- The Virginia Tech ranking also fascinates me. That's, um, awfully high for a three-loss team, though I guess their losses did come to No. 1 (by ten, on a neutral field), No. 17 (by five, on the road) and No. 28 (by three). Still ... weird. Outliers happen, I guess. (Same with Clemson and Miami, actually. PRO-ACC BIAS!!!)
- The correlations between F/+ and win percentage are not as high with this season than with 2008, but they are still higher than the abstraction that was the 2007 season.
2009 F/+ Top 40
| F/+ Rk | Team | Record | F/+ | Off F/+ |
Rk | Def F/+ |
Rk | Spec. Tms F/+ |
Rk |
| 1 | Alabama | 14-0 | +33.9% | 3.1% | 36 | 30.6% | 1 | 0.3% | 49 |
| 2 | Florida | 13-1 | +32.8% | 9.8% | 10 | 21.4% | 9 | 1.6% | 11 |
| 3 | TCU | 12-1 | +30.7% | 5.1% | 26 | 23.1% | 7 | 2.4% | 3 |
| 4 | Virginia Tech | 10-3 | +25.5% | 5.7% | 21 | 18.1% | 13 | 1.7% | 8 |
| 5 | Texas | 13-1 | +24.9% | 2.8% | 40 | 20.1% | 12 | 2.1% | 5 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 11-2 | +23.2% | -4.3% | 75 | 26.7% | 5 | 0.8% | 29 |
| 7 | Boise State | 14-0 | +21.4% | -0.3% | 58 | 20.2% | 10 | 1.6% | 10 |
| 8 | Penn State | 11-2 | +21.4% | -0.8% | 61 | 23.2% | 6 | -1.0% | 97 |
| 9 | Oregon | 10-3 | +19.8% | 10.0% | 9 | 9.5% | 25 | 0.2% | 52 |
| 10 | Iowa | 11-2 | +19.6% | -10.2% | 98 | 28.6% | 2 | 1.2% | 17 |
| 11 | Clemson | 9-5 | +18.2% | 0.2% | 53 | 15.7% | 16 | 2.3% | 4 |
| 12 | Miami | 9-4 | +18.1% | 6.5% | 20 | 10.8% | 22 | 0.9% | 28 |
| 13 | LSU | 9-4 | +18.0% | -1.5% | 64 | 17.0% | 14 | 2.5% | 2 |
| 14 | Oklahoma | 8-5 | +17.8% | -10.4% | 99 | 27.9% | 3 | 0.3% | 48 |
| 15 | Nebraska | 10-4 | +17.5% | -12.0% | 110 | 27.6% | 4 | 1.9% | 6 |
| 16 | Cincinnati | 12-1 | +17.2% | 19.2% | 2 | -2.6% | 67 | 0.6% | 40 |
| 17 | Georgia Tech | 11-3 | +15.2% | 17.9% | 3 | -3.1% | 72 | 0.5% | 44 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | 10-3 | +15.1% | 7.0% | 18 | 8.0% | 28 | 0.0% | 58 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 10-3 | +14.7% | 4.1% | 29 | 10.6% | 23 | 0.0% | 60 |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 9-4 | +13.8% | 8.9% | 11 | 5.1% | 37 | -0.2% | 70 |
| F/+ Rk | Team | Record | F/+ | Off F/+ |
Rk | Def F/+ |
Rk | Spec. Tms F/+ |
Rk |
| 21 | Stanford | 8-5 | +13.2% | 19.9% | 1 | -9.4% | 102 | 2.7% | 1 |
| 22 | Arkansas | 8-5 | +13.1% | 11.4% | 7 | 1.3% | 50 | 0.4% | 47 |
| 23 | BYU | 11-2 | +12.7% | 11.3% | 8 | 1.5% | 49 | -0.1% | 62 |
| 24 | Ole Miss | 9-4 | +12.1% | -4.2% | 74 | 15.6% | 17 | 0.7% | 33 |
| 25 | Florida State | 7-6 | +11.0% | 16.8% | 4 | -7.7% | 99 | 1.9% | 7 |
| 26 | Tennessee | 7-6 | +10.6% | 2.9% | 39 | 8.4% | 27 | -0.7% | 86 |
| 27 | USC | 9-4 | +10.5% | 5.7% | 22 | 4.9% | 39 | -0.1% | 64 |
| 28 | North Carolina | 8-5 | +10.4% | -10.5% | 101 | 21.7% | 8 | -0.8% | 89 |
| 29 | Connecticut | 8-5 | +9.3% | 8.1% | 12 | -0.2% | 56 | 1.5% | 13 |
| 30 | Utah | 10-3 | +9.2% | -4.0% | 73 | 12.3% | 19 | 0.8% | 31 |
| 31 | West Virginia | 9-4 | +9.2% | 3.0% | 37 | 6.7% | 31 | -0.6% | 83 |
| 32 | Auburn | 8-5 | +8.9% | 7.1% | 17 | 2.3% | 45 | -0.6% | 82 |
| 33 | Arizona | 8-5 | +8.5% | 0.2% | 52 | 7.6% | 29 | 0.7% | 35 |
| 34 | Oregon State | 8-5 | +8.4% | 8.0% | 13 | -0.8% | 59 | 1.1% | 19 |
| 35 | Georgia | 8-5 | +8.3% | 2.9% | 38 | 4.5% | 41 | 1.0% | 25 |
| 36 | Notre Dame | 6-6 | +7.9% | 13.8% | 6 | -5.6% | 89 | -0.2% | 69 |
| 37 | Air Force | 8-5 | +7.5% | -7.0% | 87 | 14.1% | 18 | 0.4% | 45 |
| 38 | Oklahoma State | 9-4 | +7.4% | -5.2% | 82 | 12.0% | 20 | 0.6% | 36 |
| 39 | Central Michigan | 12-2 | +6.9% | 4.6% | 28 | 1.9% | 48 | 0.4% | 46 |
| 40 | South Carolina | 7-6 | +6.6% | -9.0% | 92 | 16.6% | 15 | -1.0% | 94 |
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