2009 F/+ Rankings Now Available At Football Outsiders

The party continues with a season in which the numbers came together sooooooo much better than in 2007. The correlation between F/+ and win percentage in 2007: 0.826. The correlation in 2008: 0.888. Unlike 2007, teams in 2008 were actually allowed to occasionally be good at offense AND defense.

New 2009 S&P+ Rankings
Official 2009 F/+ Rankings
Expanded 2009 Off. S&P+ Rankings
Expanded 2009 Def. S&P+ Rankings

The F/+ Top 40 for 2009 is below. The entire list can be found at Outsiders. Some quick notes:

  • The Texas ranking fascinates me. They were actually slightly worse in 2009 than they were in 2008 (when they barely missed the title game), and their offense was actually no more than good. (As I've written before, the "Greg Davis isn't the right guy for offensive coordinator" cracks were beginning to show well before 2009. They just had Passing Downs Magician Colt McCoy™ to dig them out of holes in 2008-09.
  • The Virginia Tech ranking also fascinates me. That's, um, awfully high for a three-loss team, though I guess their losses did come to No. 1 (by ten, on a neutral field), No. 17 (by five, on the road) and No. 28 (by three). Still ... weird. Outliers happen, I guess. (Same with Clemson and Miami, actually. PRO-ACC BIAS!!!)
  • The correlations between F/+ and win percentage are not as high with this season than with 2008, but they are still higher than the abstraction that was the 2007 season.

2009 F/+ Top 40

F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk
1 Alabama 14-0 +33.9% 3.1% 36 30.6% 1 0.3% 49
2 Florida 13-1 +32.8% 9.8% 10 21.4% 9 1.6% 11
3 TCU 12-1 +30.7% 5.1% 26 23.1% 7 2.4% 3
4 Virginia Tech 10-3 +25.5% 5.7% 21 18.1% 13 1.7% 8
5 Texas 13-1 +24.9% 2.8% 40 20.1% 12 2.1% 5
6 Ohio State 11-2 +23.2% -4.3% 75 26.7% 5 0.8% 29
7 Boise State 14-0 +21.4% -0.3% 58 20.2% 10 1.6% 10
8 Penn State 11-2 +21.4% -0.8% 61 23.2% 6 -1.0% 97
9 Oregon 10-3 +19.8% 10.0% 9 9.5% 25 0.2% 52
10 Iowa 11-2 +19.6% -10.2% 98 28.6% 2 1.2% 17
11 Clemson 9-5 +18.2% 0.2% 53 15.7% 16 2.3% 4
12 Miami 9-4 +18.1% 6.5% 20 10.8% 22 0.9% 28
13 LSU 9-4 +18.0% -1.5% 64 17.0% 14 2.5% 2
14 Oklahoma 8-5 +17.8% -10.4% 99 27.9% 3 0.3% 48
15 Nebraska 10-4 +17.5% -12.0% 110 27.6% 4 1.9% 6
16 Cincinnati 12-1 +17.2% 19.2% 2 -2.6% 67 0.6% 40
17 Georgia Tech 11-3 +15.2% 17.9% 3 -3.1% 72 0.5% 44
18 Pittsburgh 10-3 +15.1% 7.0% 18 8.0% 28 0.0% 58
19 Wisconsin 10-3 +14.7% 4.1% 29 10.6% 23 0.0% 60
20 Texas Tech 9-4 +13.8% 8.9% 11 5.1% 37 -0.2% 70
F/+ Rk Team Record F/+ Off
F/+
Rk Def
F/+
Rk Spec.
Tms
F/+
Rk
21 Stanford 8-5 +13.2% 19.9% 1 -9.4% 102 2.7% 1
22 Arkansas 8-5 +13.1% 11.4% 7 1.3% 50 0.4% 47
23 BYU 11-2 +12.7% 11.3% 8 1.5% 49 -0.1% 62
24 Ole Miss 9-4 +12.1% -4.2% 74 15.6% 17 0.7% 33
25 Florida State 7-6 +11.0% 16.8% 4 -7.7% 99 1.9% 7
26 Tennessee 7-6 +10.6% 2.9% 39 8.4% 27 -0.7% 86
27 USC 9-4 +10.5% 5.7% 22 4.9% 39 -0.1% 64
28 North Carolina 8-5 +10.4% -10.5% 101 21.7% 8 -0.8% 89
29 Connecticut 8-5 +9.3% 8.1% 12 -0.2% 56 1.5% 13
30 Utah 10-3 +9.2% -4.0% 73 12.3% 19 0.8% 31
31 West Virginia 9-4 +9.2% 3.0% 37 6.7% 31 -0.6% 83
32 Auburn 8-5 +8.9% 7.1% 17 2.3% 45 -0.6% 82
33 Arizona 8-5 +8.5% 0.2% 52 7.6% 29 0.7% 35
34 Oregon State 8-5 +8.4% 8.0% 13 -0.8% 59 1.1% 19
35 Georgia 8-5 +8.3% 2.9% 38 4.5% 41 1.0% 25
36 Notre Dame 6-6 +7.9% 13.8% 6 -5.6% 89 -0.2% 69
37 Air Force 8-5 +7.5% -7.0% 87 14.1% 18 0.4% 45
38 Oklahoma State 9-4 +7.4% -5.2% 82 12.0% 20 0.6% 36
39 Central Michigan 12-2 +6.9% 4.6% 28 1.9% 48 0.4% 46
40 South Carolina 7-6 +6.6% -9.0% 92 16.6% 15 -1.0% 94

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