100-Year Rankings

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In today's Morning Tailgate, I have a little fun and rank this season's bowls based on a number of factors. One of them is historical ranking, which I define as teams' 100-year S&P+ and/or Estimated S&P+ averages. Just for grins, I wanted to post the entire list here. I love that Army is still in the Top 25.
| Team | 100-Year Average |
Rk |
| Alabama | 311.9 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 309.6 | 2 |
| Michigan | 297.3 | 3 |
| Texas | 293.5 | 4 |
| USC | 289.5 | 5 |
| Oklahoma | 278.9 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 278.7 | 7 |
| Georgia Tech | 278.6 | 8 |
| Georgia | 274.8 | 9 |
| Nebraska | 272.4 | 10 |
| Florida State | 270.2 | 11 |
| Ohio State | 269.6 | 12 |
| Auburn | 264.9 | 13 |
| LSU | 260.1 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 259.4 | 15 |
| Miami | 252.3 | 16 |
| Penn State | 246.9 | 17 |
| UCLA | 241.4 | 18 |
| Texas A&M | 239.4 | 19 |
| Minnesota | 238.6 | 20 |
| Navy | 237.7 | 21 |
| Michigan State | 237.5 | 22 |
| Florida | 232.7 | 23 |
| Illinois | 231.8 | 24 |
| Army | 231.3 | 25 |
As always, full list after the jump.
| Team | 100-Year Average |
Rk |
| Stanford | 229.4 | 26 |
| North Carolina | 229.2 | 27 |
| California | 227.3 | 28 |
| Washington | 225.1 | 29 |
| Colorado | 223.7 | 30 |
| Vanderbilt | 222.9 | 31 |
| Ole Miss | 221.8 | 32 |
| Duke | 220.4 | 33 |
| Wisconsin | 220.3 | 34 |
| Arkansas | 218.9 | 35 |
| Houston | 217.6 | 36 |
| Kentucky | 216.6 | 37 |
| Syracuse | 216.5 | 38 |
| Utah | 214.8 | 39 |
| Missouri | 214.0 | 40 |
| Clemson | 208.3 | 41 |
| Iowa | 206.1 | 42 |
| Mississippi State | 206.0 | 43 |
| Southern Miss | 205.9 | 44 |
| Arizona State | 205.1 | 45 |
| Texas Tech | 203.8 | 46 |
| Boise State | 202.6 | 47 |
| SMU | 202.5 | 48 |
| Purdue | 202.2 | 49 |
| Oregon | 201.8 | 50 |
| West Virginia | 201.2 | 51 |
| Washington State | 201.0 | 52 |
| Boston College | 200.8 | 53 |
| Miami (Ohio) |
199.6 | 54 |
| Northwestern | 198.5 | 55 |
| Tulane | 197.4 | 56 |
| Arizona | 197.2 | 57 |
| San Diego State | 196.1 | 58 |
| Oklahoma State | 195.3 | 59 |
| South Florida | 193.8 | 60 |
| Tulsa | 192.9 | 61 |
| Baylor | 192.9 | 62 |
| TCU | 192.2 | 63 |
| Maryland | 191.5 | 64 |
| Memphis | 190.9 | 65 |
| Rice | 190.7 | 66 |
| Virginia Tech | 189.9 | 67 |
| Air Force | 189.5 | 68 |
| East Carolina | 186.8 | 69 |
| Bowling Green | 186.7 | 70 |
| Oregon State | 186.6 | 71 |
| Kansas | 186.4 | 72 |
| N.C. State | 186.1 | 73 |
| Toledo | 184.9 | 74 |
| Fresno State | 184.2 | 75 |
| Cincinnati | 183.2 | 76 |
| South Carolina | 183.2 | 77 |
| Virginia | 179.7 | 78 |
| Louisville | 179.6 | 79 |
| Colorado State | 179.1 | 80 |
| Central Florida | 179.1 | 81 |
| Troy | 179.1 | 82 |
| Central Michigan | 179.0 | 83 |
| Temple | 178.6 | 84 |
| Hawaii | 178.5 | 85 |
| BYU | 177.0 | 86 |
| Indiana | 174.9 | 87 |
| Florida Atlantic | 174.5 | 88 |
| Connecticut | 174.0 | 89 |
| Nevada | 173.3 | 90 |
| Louisiana Tech | 173.1 | 91 |
| Western Michigan | 171.2 | 92 |
| Iowa State | 170.9 | 93 |
| Rutgers | 170.2 | 94 |
| UAB | 169.0 | 95 |
| Ohio | 167.5 | 96 |
| Ball State | 167.3 | 97 |
| North Texas | 166.6 | 98 |
| Kansas State | 166.3 | 99 |
| Middle Tennessee | 165.5 | 100 |
| Kent State | 165.3 | 101 |
| San Jose State | 165.2 | 102 |
| Florida International | 161.6 | 103 |
| Wyoming | 160.3 | 104 |
| UNLV | 160.1 | 105 |
| New Mexico | 159.7 | 106 |
| Marshall | 159.6 | 107 |
| Utah State | 158.8 | 108 |
| Wake Forest | 158.5 | 109 |
| Northern Illinois | 157.9 | 110 |
| UTEP | 157.3 | 111 |
| UL-Lafayette | 155.8 | 112 |
| Western Kentucky | 155.0 | 113 |
| Buffalo | 154.3 | 114 |
| Akron | 153.7 | 115 |
| Arkansas State | 149.6 | 116 |
| UL-Monroe | 146.6 | 117 |
| Idaho | 144.9 | 118 |
| Eastern Michigan | 144.3 | 119 |
| New Mexico State | 133.5 | 120 |
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Florida barely in the top 25
That tells you how bad they were before Spurrier.
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Ahead of Fiesta Bowl qualifying, Big East winning UConn! The power of Schnelly never ceases to amaze.
Heh...that'll go down once this year has been added, I think.
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1-11
Being arguably the worst team in the nation will do that to one’s ranking (see: State, New Mexico)
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by Kyle Kensing on Dec 16, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Off season idea for you
I’d be interested to see how these ratings have changed across time. As Jonesy says above, Florida is a real late bloomer to the national stage, while Army has declined over time. I’d love to see when Minnesota lost its hold as a national power, and how remarkable Oklahoma State’s recent run to the top is. So you could do a feature on the changing fortunes of some of these programs over time. Or also look at ones that consistently seem to underachieve expectations—like Texas A&M.
Also, I’ve often made the point that the center of gravity in the game has changed from the Midwest to the South (and from urban Catholic recruits to rural African-Americans). These ratings would provide a way to look at that hypothesis.
Something like this?
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/8/26/2385296/the-big-12s-power-trends
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/8/25/2382552/sec-power-trends-fun-stat-nerd-tidbit-florida
I planned on doing that for everybody but ran out of time before the season started.
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Wait. What? Since when was the mid-west the epicenter of CFB?
Maybe the first 20 yrs that started at the turn of the century? Unless I’m wrong, and I’ve been wrong many times before, the south has held that title since around the 1930’s as a whole.
Look at the early years of the AP trophy.
The AP has been awarding a national championship since 1936. The early years are dominated by midwest teams: Minnesota, Ohio State, Notre Dame, etc. There are occasional teams from the south — depending on how you define “the south” and if want to include the states of Texas and Oklahoma — but it’s not until the last decade that it’s been dominated by the south.
I'd like to see a handicapped version of this
for the teams like Boise State and others that haven’t been playing as long as the other teams.
Yeah...I was thinking about ways to do that...
..but went ahead and just posted the raw list instead.
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Interesting that you posted the raw list...
If my logic is valid, that shows how dominant FSU and Miami were in the second half of the century. To rank 11 and 18, respectively, and have only played football since since the 50s or 60s, and most, if not all, of the rest of the top 25 schools have played football for more than 100 years.
by michaeljsweeneyjr on Dec 16, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Can you define "100-year S&P+ and/or Estimated S&P+ averages"?
I can’t seem to find it anywhere and don’t quite understand it. I understand it is just the past 100 years, but without doing any math and just looking at all time records between Georgia Tech and schools like Ohio State and Nebraska, i see that the latter two have far superior winning percentages (71.6% and 70.2% to 59.6%), national (7 and 5 to 4) and conference titles (34 and 43 to 16) compared to the Jackets. Yet Ga Tech is #8, NU #10 and OSU #12.
No disrespect intended towards the Rambling Wreck, just curious just curious how it is defined.
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Start here:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2010/vn-greatest-teams-last-100-years-no-100-81
I used it for a “top teams” countdown a couple of summers ago. It’s basically points scored/allowed versus EXPECTED points scored/allowed, so it will probably diverge a decent amount from win percentages if you are/have been in a particularly good/bad conference.
www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2010/top-100-college-football-teams-last-100-years-part-ii
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2010/top-100-college-football-teams-last-100-years-part-iii
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2010/top-100-college-football-teams-last-100-years-part-iv
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2010/top-100-college-football-teams-last-100-years-part-v
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2010/vn-podcast-top-100-redux
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Because Tech is one of the original founders of the SEC
Therefore 100 points is automatically added.
by helluvaengineer on Dec 17, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Great stuff!
If LSU runs the table with their schedule, I wonder how high they go. I guess not much, given this is over 100 years. Of course, if we win…
"The same things win today that have always won, and they will win years from now. The only difference is the losers have a whole new bunch of excuses why they don’t win or can’t win."-Bear Bryant
Robot Chicken Star Wars should be canon.
by the thin red line on Dec 19, 2011 1:28 AM EST reply actions
OK, I'll cheerfully admit I'm a homer,
but how does Stanford rank above Washington?
UW has the all time longest unbeaten streak in college football, and until very recently "owned Stanford.
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