Week 12 F/+ Picks

Well ... pretty good week after the ridiculousness of mid-week MACtion. The picks went 1-5 in Tuesday-through-Thursday games, then 29-21 thereafter. Still, for the season this method has been just slightly better than flipping a coin. Hopefully there will be time in the offseason to revisit how these ratings, which evaluate teams pretty well, can be used in a more predictive manner.

Last Week's Results

Week 11 Season
30-26-1 53.5% 275-265-7 50.9%
Upset Picks 2-3 40.0% 22-29 43.1%
0-5 point spread
10-7 58.8% 69-77-2 47.3%
5-10 points
6-6-1 50.0% 68-62-3 52.3%
10-20 points
11-10 52.4% 83-72-1 53.5%
20-30 points
3-1 75.0% 38-37 50.7%
30+ points
0-2 0.0% 13-16 44.8%

As for this week's picks ... well-played, Vegas. There are 56 games below; for 25 of them, the spread and projection are within two points of each other. A ridiculous 37 are within four points. A cointoss really might be the best way to make picks this week.

Date Time
Game Spread
Winner ATS Pick
15-Nov 8:00 PM Ball St. at N. Illinois (ESPNU) -19.0 NIU by 15.8 Ball St.
16-Nov 8:00 PM Ohio at Bowling Green (ESPN) 7.0 Ohio by 4.3 BGSU
16-Nov 8:00 PM W. Michigan at Miami-OH (ESPN2) -1.5 WMU by 5.7 WMU
17-Nov 8:00 PM Southern Miss at UAB (CBSSN) 23.0 So. Miss by 25.3 So. Miss
17-Nov 8:00 PM Marshall at Memphis (FSN) 11.5 Marshall by 8.7 Memphis
17-Nov 8:00 PM N. Carolina at Va. Tech (ESPN) -10.5 Va. Tech by 10.3 UNC
18-Nov 8:00 PM Oklahoma St. at Iowa St. (ESPN) 27.0 OSU by 29.3 OSU
18-Nov 8:00 PM Toledo at C. Michigan (ESPNU) 14.0 Toledo by 14.6 Toledo
19-Nov 12:00 PM Louisville at UConn (ESPN3) -1.0 Louisville by 0.9 Louisville
19-Nov 12:00 PM Minnesota at Northwestern (BTN) -15.5 NW'ern by 17.6 NW'ern
19-Nov 12:00 PM Indiana at Mich. St. (BTN) -28.0 Mich. St. by 32.2 Mich. St.
19-Nov 12:00 PM Nebraska at Michigan (ESPN) -3.5 Michigan by 2.4 Nebraska
19-Nov 12:00 PM Cincinnati at Rutgers (ESPNU) 3.0 Rutgers by 2.7 Rutgers
19-Nov 12:00 PM Kansas at Texas A&M (FSN) -30.5 Tex. A&M by 29.7 Kansas
19-Nov 12:00 PM Wisconsin at Illinois (ESPN2) 14.0 Wiscy by 12.2 Illinois
19-Nov 12:00 PM Akron at Buffalo -11.5 Buffalo by 10.7 Akron
19-Nov 12:00 PM Iowa at Purdue (BTN) 3.0 Iowa by 6.5 Iowa
19-Nov 12:21 PM Kentucky at Georgia (SEC) -30.5 Georgia by 25.7 Kentucky
19-Nov 12:30 PM Georgia Tech at Duke (ESPN3) 11.0 Ga. Tech by 8.6 Duke
19-Nov 1:00 PM Army at Temple (ESPN3) -13.5 Temple by 23.9 Temple
19-Nov 1:00 PM E. Michigan at Kent St. -3.5 Kent St. by 7.6 Kent St.
19-Nov 2:00 PM New Mexico at Wyoming (MTN) -24.0 Wyoming by 25.9 Wyoming
19-Nov 3:00 PM Maryland at Wake Forest (ESPN3) -10.5 Wake by 13.2 Wake
19-Nov 3:00 PM Arkansas St. at MTSU (ESPN3) 10.5 Ark. St. by 13.3 Ark. St.
19-Nov 3:00 PM Tulsa at UTEP (CBSSN) 13.5 Tulsa by 6.1 UTEP
19-Nov 3:30 PM Texas Tech at Missouri (ABC) -18.0 Missouri by 18.2 Missouri
19-Nov 3:30 PM Mississippi St. at Arkansas (CBS) -13.0 Arkansas by 13.1 Arkansas
19-Nov 3:30 PM Miami-FL at S. Florida (ESPNU) 1.0 USF by 3.2 USF
19-Nov 3:30 PM Clemson at N.C. St. (ESPN/ABC) 7.5 Clemson by 11.4 Clemson
19-Nov 3:30 PM Penn St. at Ohio St. (ESPN/ABC) -6.5 Ohio St. by 0.9 Penn St.
19-Nov 3:30 PM Washington at Oregon St. (FCSP) 3.0 Washington by 4.2 Washington
19-Nov 3:30 PM Tulane at Rice -14.0 Rice by 12.7 Tulane
19-Nov 3:30 PM SMU at Houston (FSN) -19.5 Houston by 12.2 SMU
19-Nov 3:30 PM Colorado St. at TCU (VS) -33.5 TCU by 29.4 Colo. St.
19-Nov 3:30 PM Florida Atlantic at Troy -11.0 Troy by 12.2 Troy
19-Nov 4:00 PM Navy at San Jose St. (ESPN3) 5.0 SJSU by 2.7 SJSU
19-Nov 4:00 PM B.C. at Notre Dame (NBC) -24.5 Irish by 25.4 Irish
19-Nov 4:05 PM Louisiana Tech at Nevada -7.0 La. Tech by 5 La. Tech
19-Nov 5:00 PM Utah St. at Idaho (ESPN3) 10.0 Utah St. by 9.2 Idaho
19-Nov 5:00 PM Utah at Washington St. (FCSA) 3.5 Utah by 9 Utah
19-Nov 5:00 PM Fla. Int'l at UL-Monroe -1.5 FIU by 5.8 FIU
19-Nov 6:00 PM UNLV at Air Force (MTN) -23.5 AFA by 14.7 UNLV
19-Nov 7:00 PM LSU at Ole Miss (ESPN) 28.5 LSU by 34.6 LSU
19-Nov 7:00 PM C. Florida at E. Carolina (FSN) 6.5 UCF by 5.2 ECU
19-Nov 7:00 PM W. Kentucky at N. Texas (ESPN3) 3.0 WKU by 3.8 WKU
19-Nov 7:00 PM Vandy at Tennessee (ESPNU) 1.5 Tennessee by 2.7 Tennessee
19-Nov 7:30 PM Colorado at UCLA (VS) -11.0 UCLA by 10 Colorado
19-Nov 7:30 PM Virginia at Florida St. (ESPN2) -17.5 Florida St. by 18 Florida St.
19-Nov 8:00 PM Boise St. at SDSU (CBSSN) 18.0 Boise St. by 19.8 Boise St.
19-Nov 8:00 PM Oklahoma at Baylor (ABC) 15.0 Oklahoma by 15.8 Oklahoma
19-Nov 8:00 PM Kansas St. at Texas (FX) -9.5 Texas by 8.3 Kansas St.
19-Nov 8:00 PM USC at Oregon (ABC) -15.0 Oregon by 14.7 USC
19-Nov 9:30 PM Arizona at Arizona St. (FCSC) -11.0 Arizona St. by 16.7 Arizona St.
19-Nov 10:15 PM California at Stanford (ESPN) -17.5 Stanford by 15.6 California
19-Nov 10:15 PM NMSU at BYU (ESPNU) -22.5 BYU by 21.6 NMSU
19-Nov 11:00 PM Fresno St. at Hawaii (ESPN3) -5.0 Hawaii by 8.5 Hawaii
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