Week 11 F/+ Picks

BLACKSBURG VA - NOVEMBER 04: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets players line up against Virginia Tech Hokies players at Lane Stadium on November 4 2010 in Blacksburg Virginia. (Photo by Geoff Burke/Getty Images)

UPDATE: UGH. The original picks below were aligned with my S&P+ ratings, not the combined F/+ ratings. F/+ is much more accurate for picks, so I've updated the post below. Gotta love user error.

It was a nice thought, wasn't it? That combining teams' variability and the size of the difference between projection and spread would produce some "safe" picks? For at least one week, and one small sample size, it did not. The "safe" picks went 2-4, the "unsafe" picks 3-3. We'll go back to the drawing board on that one and, below, just keep giving you the weekly picks that are evidently every bit as successful as flipping a coin. Good times.

Last Week's Results

Week 10 Season
26-26 50.0% 245-239-6 50.6%
Upset Picks 1-3 25.0% 20-26 43.5%
0-5 point spread
8-11 42.1% 59-70-2 45.8%
5-10 points
4-3 57.1% 62-56-2 52.5%
10-20 points
11-4 73.3% 72-62-1 53.7%
20-30 points
2-6 25.0% 35-36 49.3%
30+ points
1-2 33.3% 13-14 48.1%

One more thing: do not, in any way, use these picks to bet on these damn mid-week MAC games. Good lord. Such picks went 1-3 last week and are 0-3 this week. Actually, DO use these picks to bet on these games; just pick the opposite.

Date Time
Game Spread
Winner ATS Pick
8-Nov 8:00 PM NIU at Bowling Green (ESPN2) 5.5 NIU by 3.2 BGSU
8-Nov 8:00 PM W. Michigan at Toledo (ESPNU) -12.0 Toledo by 15.3 Toledo
9-Nov 8:00 PM Miami-OH at Temple (ESPN2) -13.0 Temple by 19 Temple
10-Nov 7:30 PM Ohio at C. Michigan (ESPNU) 6.5 Ohio by 10.4 Ohio
10-Nov 8:00 PM Va. Tech at Ga. Tech (ESPN) 1.0 Ga. Tech by 2.9 Ga. Tech
10-Nov 8:00 PM Houston at Tulane (CBSSN) 34.5 Houston by 23.3 Tulane
11-Nov 8:00 PM S. Florida at Syracuse (ESPN2) 3.5 USF by 4.1 USF
12-Nov 12:00 PM Texas at Missouri (FX) 1.5 Missouri by 0.1 Missouri
12-Nov 12:00 PM Rice at Northwestern (BTN) -16.5 NW'ern by 17 NW'ern
12-Nov 12:00 PM Pittsburgh at Louisville (ESPN3) -2.5 Louisville by 1.6 Pittsburgh
12-Nov 12:00 PM Marshall at Tulsa (FSN) -18.5 Tulsa by 14.6 Marshall
12-Nov 12:00 PM Nebraska at Penn St. (ESPN) 3.0 Penn St. by 5.9 Penn St.
12-Nov 12:00 PM Wake Forest at Clemson (ESPNU) -16.5 Clemson by 13.7 Wake
12-Nov 12:00 PM West Virginia at Cincinnati (ABC) -3.5 Cincinnati by 6.3 Cincinnati
12-Nov 12:00 PM Michigan St. at Iowa (ESPN2) 2.5 Michigan St. by 1.4 Iowa
12-Nov 12:00 PM Ohio St. at Purdue (BTN) 7.0 Ohio St. by 12.6 Ohio St.
12-Nov 12:00 PM Florida at S. Carolina (CBS) -3.5 S. Caro. by 8.8 S. Caro.
12-Nov 12:00 PM Oklahoma St. at Texas Tech (ABC) 17.0 Okla. St. by 23.8 Okla. St.
12-Nov 12:21 PM Kentucky at Vanderbilt (SEC) -13.5 Vandy by 13.5 Vandy
12-Nov 12:30 PM NC St. at Boston College (ESPN3) 2.0 NC St. by 1.2 B.C.
12-Nov 1:00 PM Buffalo at Eastern Michigan -3.0 EMU by 2.3 Buffalo
12-Nov 1:00 PM North Texas at Troy (ESPN3) -8.0 Troy by 6.1 N. Texas
12-Nov 2:00 PM Wyoming at Air Force (MTN) -16.5 Air Force by 6.5 Wyoming
12-Nov 2:00 PM Kent St. at Akron (ESPN3) 5.0 Kent St. by 3.5 Akron
12-Nov 2:00 PM Baylor at Kansas 20.0 Baylor by 17.9 Kansas
12-Nov 2:40 PM Arizona at Colorado (FCSP) 10.5 Arizona by 11.6 Arizona
12-Nov 3:00 PM Duke at Virginia (ESPN3) -10.0 Virginia by 14.5 Virginia
12-Nov 3:00 PM San Jose St. at Utah St. (ESPN3) -10.5 Utah St. by 15.4 Utah St.
12-Nov 3:00 PM UL-Lafayette at Ark. St. (ESPN3) -11.0 Ark. St. by 11.4 Ark. St.
12-Nov 3:30 PM Miami at Florida St. (ABC/ESPN) -9.0 Florida St. by 10.3 Florida St.
12-Nov 3:30 PM Auburn at Georgia (CBS) -13.5 Georgia by 16.3 Georgia
12-Nov 3:30 PM TCU at Boise St. (VS) -15.0 Boise St. by 19.6 Boise St.
12-Nov 3:30 PM Wisconsin at Minnesota (BTN) 27.0 Wisconsin by 32.5 Wisconsin
12-Nov 3:30 PM Rutgers at Army (CBSSN) 7.5 Rutgers by 14.3 Rutgers
12-Nov 3:30 PM Michigan at Illinois (ABC/ESPN) -1.0 Illinois by 0.7 Michigan
12-Nov 3:30 PM Tex. A&M at Kan. St. (ABC/ESPN3) 4.5 A&M by 4.4 KSU
12-Nov 3:30 PM Mid. Tenn. at UL-Monroe (ESPN3) -6.0 UL-Monroe by 10 UL-Monroe
12-Nov 3:30 PM Navy at SMU (FSN) -8.0 SMU by 9.7 SMU
12-Nov 3:45 PM Washington at USC (FX) -12.5 USC by 13.3 USC
12-Nov 4:15 PM UAB at Memphis (CSS) 4.5 Memphis by 0.4 Memphis
12-Nov 6:00 PM Tennessee at Arkansas (ESPN2) -14.0 Arkansas by 6.6 Tennessee
12-Nov 6:00 PM SDSU at Colorado St. (MTN) 13.5 SDSU by 9 Colo. St.
12-Nov 6:00 PM Fla. Atlantic at Fla. Int'l
-17.5 FIU by 20.6 FIU
12-Nov 6:30 PM Oregon St. at California (FCSA) -8.5 Cal by 12 Cal
12-Nov 6:30 PM UCLA at Utah (FSPT) -7.0 Utah by 6.2 UCLA
12-Nov 7:00 PM Western Kentucky at LSU (ESPNU) -41.5 LSU by 45.4 LSU
12-Nov 7:30 PM Maryland at Notre Dame (NBC) -20.5 Irish by 22.3 Irish
12-Nov 7:30 PM Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss (ESPN3) 2.5 La. Tech by 10.1 La. Tech
12-Nov 7:45 PM Alabama at Mississippi St. (ESPN) 17.5 Alabama by 24.6 Alabama
12-Nov 8:00 PM Oregon at Stanford (ABC) -3.5 Oregon by 1.5 Oregon
12-Nov 8:00 PM Fresno St. at NMSU (ESPN3) 7.5 Fresno by 3.8 NMSU
12-Nov 8:00 PM UCF at So. Miss (CBSSN) -9.0 So. Miss by 16.5 So. Miss
12-Nov 8:00 PM East Carolina at UTEP -3.5 UTEP by 6.5 UTEP
12-Nov 9:15 PM Idaho at BYU (ESPN2) -20.5 BYU by 15.9 Idaho
12-Nov 10:00 PM UNLV at New Mexico (MTN) 7.0 UNLV by 7 New Mex.
12-Nov 10:15 PM Hawaii at Nevada (ESPNU) -15.5 Nevada by 1.7 Hawaii
12-Nov 10:30 PM Arizona St. at Wash. St. (VS) 11.5 ASU by 19.6 ASU

Out of curiosity, I used the Momentum Rankings from earlier this week to see what adjustments using such numbers would make on the overall picks. Here are the three games that would flip from one side of the spread to the other:

  • PIttsburgh at Louisville (New Projection: Louisville by 2.8)
  • Michigan State at Iowa (New Projection: Michigan State by 3.9)
  • UCLA at Utah (New Projection: Utah by 7.5)

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