Momentum Rankings

by Bill C. on Nov 1, 2011 4:44 PM EDT in What We Can Do With the Tools at Our Disposal

KNOXVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 29: DeAnthony Arnett #13 of the Tennessee Volunteers is tackled by Brison Williams #11 of the South Carolina Gamecocks at Neyland Stadium on October 29, 2011 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

In last week's Varsity Numbers, I discussed a way to gauge teams' momentum using weighted Adj. Scoring Margin.

Wtd. Margin: This is an attempted look at momentum. If we weight each progressive game as ten percent more important than the one before it, some teams' Adj. Scoring Margins change. We can compare Wtd. Margin to the full 2011 Margin to get the DIFF column, which signifies the difference between the two numbers. Teams with a positive "DIFF" have shown improvement as the season has progressed. Teams with negative numbers have not. No. 30 TCU is coming on strong after a rocky start, while No. 23 Georgia Tech, No. 33 Illinois and No. 40 Florida are dropping quickly.

I am using this measure for an upcoming bowl projections piece, so I wanted to go ahead and post this year's momentum rankings. They are below. And yes, South Carolina's defense has been so good recently that they are sixth despite a complete lack of offense.

(And yes, I'm going to try as hard as I can to produce that Excel data file this week. Thanks, as always, for your patience.)

Wtd Rank	Team	Wtd Margin	Overall Margin	DIFF
1	Alabama	34.3	34.3	0.0
2	LSU	24.1	24.4	-0.3
3	Oklahoma	23.8	24.7	-0.9
4	Boise State	23.4	23.5	-0.1
5	Oregon	19.6	20.0	-0.4
6	South Carolina	18.4	16.7	1.7
7	Wisconsin	18.0	18.1	-0.1
8	Florida State	17.0	16.3	0.7
9	Notre Dame	16.3	16.6	-0.3
10	Oklahoma State	15.4	15.2	0.2
11	Stanford	15.1	15.8	-0.8
12	Michigan State	15.0	16.2	-1.2
13	Georgia	14.7	15.3	-0.6
14	Houston	13.4	12.3	1.0
15	TCU	13.3	11.3	2.0
16	Michigan	12.8	13.4	-0.6
17	Penn State	12.7	14.1	-1.4
18	Missouri	12.5	12.7	-0.2
19	Virginia Tech	12.0	13.3	-1.3
20	Texas A&M	11.0	12.6	-1.6
21	Central Florida	10.4	12.0	-1.7
22	SMU	10.1	10.4	-0.3
23	Toledo	10.0	8.7	1.2
24	Texas	9.8	9.3	0.5
25	Cincinnati	9.6	8.4	1.2

Full list after the jump.

Wtd Rank	Team	Wtd Margin	Overall Margin	DIFF
26	West Virginia	9.6	8.6	1.0
27	USC	9.2	7.9	1.3
28	Nebraska	8.9	7.5	1.3
29	Baylor	8.7	10.3	-1.6
30	Illinois	7.9	9.5	-1.5
31	Miami-FL	7.8	6.6	1.1
32	South Florida	7.6	7.5	0.1
33	Temple	7.4	7.1	0.3
34	North Carolina	6.9	7.3	-0.4
35	Nevada	6.7	6.1	0.6
36	Tulsa	6.5	5.9	0.6
37	Arizona State	6.0	6.5	-0.5
38	Ohio State	5.9	6.6	-0.7
39	Southern Miss	5.8	4.9	0.9
40	Clemson	5.7	5.6	0.1
41	Northern Illinois	5.5	4.8	0.7
42	Army	5.3	3.2	2.1
43	Vanderbilt	4.5	3.3	1.1
44	Arkansas	4.5	5.0	-0.5
45	Washington	4.4	4.0	0.4
46	Georgia Tech	4.1	5.5	-1.4
47	Virginia	3.9	5.0	-1.1
48	Arkansas State	3.8	3.4	0.4
49	California	3.4	3.8	-0.4
50	Utah State	3.3	3.7	-0.4
51	Northwestern	2.6	1.9	0.8
52	Arizona	2.2	2.5	-0.3
53	BYU	2.1	1.6	0.5
54	Wake Forest	2.1	2.4	-0.3
55	Purdue	2.0	2.0	0.0
56	San Diego State	1.7	1.6	0.1
57	Mississippi State	1.6	1.5	0.1
58	Ohio	1.4	2.2	-0.7
59	Florida	1.3	3.4	-2.0
60	UCLA	1.3	1.4	-0.1
61	Utah	1.3	1.1	0.2
62	Louisiana Tech	1.0	1.4	-0.3
63	Iowa	0.9	0.8	0.2
64	Auburn	0.9	1.7	-0.8
65	Rutgers	0.8	1.4	-0.5
66	Kansas State	0.5	1.6	-1.1
67	Florida International	0.2	1.1	-0.9
68	Western Michigan	-0.1	1.3	-1.4
69	Louisville	-0.3	-1.8	1.6
70	Tennessee	-0.7	0.8	-1.5
71	Syracuse	-0.8	-0.2	-0.6
72	UTEP	-0.9	-2.2	1.3
73	Pittsburgh	-1.0	-1.4	0.4
74	Hawaii	-1.0	-1.2	0.2
75	Texas Tech	-1.1	-0.7	-0.4
76	Air Force	-1.1	-1.4	0.3
77	Navy	-1.3	0.1	-1.4
78	Western Kentucky	-2.6	-4.5	1.9
79	UL-Monroe	-2.7	-2.6	-0.1
80	Miami-OH	-2.7	-4.3	1.5
81	Maryland	-2.9	-1.9	-1.0
82	Fresno State	-3.0	-4.0	1.0
83	Middle Tennessee	-3.2	-3.0	-0.2
84	UL-Lafayette	-3.2	-4.6	1.4
85	Bowling Green	-3.4	-2.6	-0.8
86	East Carolina	-3.6	-3.9	0.2
87	Iowa State	-4.0	-4.5	0.5
88	NC State	-4.4	-4.7	0.3
89	Duke	-4.8	-4.4	-0.4
90	Ball State	-5.1	-6.1	1.0
91	New Mexico State	-5.4	-5.5	0.1
92	Oregon State	-5.6	-5.9	0.3
93	Connecticut	-5.7	-4.9	-0.8
94	Eastern Michigan	-6.4	-6.9	0.5
95	Marshall	-6.4	-6.1	-0.3
96	Boston College	-6.5	-7.6	1.2
97	Washington State	-6.7	-6.1	-0.6
98	Wyoming	-7.0	-7.6	0.6
99	Ole Miss	-7.1	-7.6	0.5
100	San Jose State	-7.8	-8.7	0.9
101	Rice	-8.1	-8.2	0.1
102	Central Michigan	-8.4	-8.4	-0.1
103	Buffalo	-8.6	-8.3	-0.2
104	Kent State	-8.6	-9.2	0.6
105	North Texas	-8.7	-9.1	0.4
106	Troy	-8.7	-7.9	-0.8
107	Minnesota	-9.2	-9.5	0.3
108	Kentucky	-9.7	-9.1	-0.6
109	Colorado	-10.4	-8.9	-1.5
110	Indiana	-10.4	-10.6	0.2
111	Idaho	-10.9	-11.2	0.3
112	Akron	-11.9	-13.3	1.4
113	Kansas	-11.9	-10.4	-1.5
114	Tulane	-12.1	-11.8	-0.4
115	UAB	-12.7	-14.1	1.4
116	UNLV	-13.0	-12.7	-0.3
117	Colorado State	-14.8	-14.5	-0.3
118	Memphis	-17.8	-18.7	0.9
119	Florida Atlantic	-18.3	-18.6	0.3
120	New Mexico	-18.6	-17.8	-0.9

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Comments

GT confuses me

We play so well for 4 weeks, then we have the 2nd to worst momentum rating in the country (118 out of 119), and then we beat Clemson at home….no idea what to make of them right now.

by millsGT49 on Nov 1, 2011 5:02 PM EDT reply actions

Ditto.

The numbers now like them to win the division, but…I don’t trust them to win OR lose it at this point…

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by Bill C. on Nov 1, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if the momentum rating for GT is due to the

high variability between success/failure of their offense. Either their opponent figures out the option/prepared for it, or they aren’t.

Could this lead to a weekly huge swing in momentum? As in; even if a very highly Stat rated team can’t figure out the option, they’ll loose, however a very Stat mediocre defense can figure it out and shut down GT.

This swing is magnified for GT inparticular because of the novelty of the option right now.

What is GTs schizoid fluctuations? I wonder if their momentum is comming more from self inflicted loss of effectiveness, or the above question I stated?

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Nov 1, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Might it make sense to include the strength of the teams they are beating and/or losing to?

Or does the Adj. Scoring Margin already take that into account? (I.E. weight a close loss to a good team more favorably than a blowout loss to a bad team)

by psuwxman on Nov 1, 2011 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

I'm sorry, by Adjusted Scoring Margin I actually mean Weighted Margin.

by psuwxman on Nov 1, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Everything is opponent-adjusted...

…so a good performance against a good team is weighted more favorably than a decent performance against a lesser team. That said, every game is treated as equal. I believe Fremeau more heavily weights teams versus good teams, but I don’t do that in general.

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by Bill C. on Nov 2, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Not sure the momentum rankings really correlate to momentum. Let’s take Ohio State for an example, they were pretty much a hot mess to begin the season, but have beaten two ranked teams each of the last two weeks. Clearly, they are getting better, and clearly have some momentum, but have a negative (-0.7) DIFF. And Wisconsin, with 2 consecutive losses, have more momentum? ((-0.1) DIFF? Maybe I’m not grasping the premise.

by ejp on Nov 1, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

For what it's worth...

…Wisconsin has played quite well in each of the last two weeks, and in terms of a play-by-play rating, their last-minute glitches aren’t going to count too much against them. All the ratings are going to see is a team that played damn well at Michigan State and pretty well against Ohio State.

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by Bill C. on Nov 2, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions