VARSITY NUMBERS: Adj. Score Revisited

We're seven weeks through the season, and I'm (foolishly) comfortable enough with the stability of the numbers that it's time to break out everybody's favorite new(ish) stat, Adj. Score.

The purpose (what would teams' records look like if everybody played the same perfectly average opponent every week?) and concept (take a team's weekly "+" score and apply it to a format that is easier to understand) of this measure are at least relatively simple. Each team produces an Off. S&P+ number and a Def. S&P+ number in a given week based on the same type of opponent adjustments that make up the full-season rankings. But if you see that Team A had an Off. S&P+ of 109.7 for that week, that doesn't mean much to you out of context. If you see that their Adj. Score for that game was 31.1, however, then you get a much better grasp for how well they played. This gives us a slightly different look than full-season data gives us, simply because it factors in a consistency aspect, as we'll see below.

To see what Adj. Record can tell us about the 2011 season thus far, let's look at the top teams according to the AP poll. But first, a couple of notes:

  • Because this is an opponent-adjusted number, and because opponents continue to play games after you play them, a given team's Adj. Points and Adj. Wins for games already played will continue to shift as the season progresses. Such is life when you're looking at this type of data before the season actually ends.
  • One concept I didn't explain very well the first time around is this: for every game that is played, it is not guaranteed that one team will end up with an Adj. Win and one with an Adj. Loss. Both teams' performances are being compared to the opponent's season averages, so if both teams play well, or if both teams play particularly poorly, then there could be two Adj. Wins in a given game or two Adj. Losses. For instance, in Michigan State's 28-14 win over Michigan, both teams got an Adj. Win. Compared to State's averages, Michigan earned 33.1 Adj. Points on offense and allowed 25.2 Adj. Points on defense. Meanwhile, State earned 27.3 Adj. Points on offense and allowed 5.4 Adj. Points on defense. Both teams played well enough to beat an average team, but Michigan State played better and earned the win.
  • Last year, when I unveiled this concept, it was recommended that I use full-game data instead of just non-garbage time data. I thought about this for a while, and it made sense to me. A "score" comes from the entire game, and that is what is used below.

To go along with that column, I figured it would be a wise use of this space to post the entire list of teams here (after the jump). Enjoy.

Team Actual
Rec.
Adj.
W/L
Adj. Off.
PPG
Rk Adj. Def.
PPG
Rk Adj. Scoring
Margin
Rk
Alabama 7-0 7-0 44.4 1 13.1 5 +31.4 1
Oklahoma 6-0 6-0 36.6 14 11.8 4 +24.8 2
LSU 7-0 7-0 36.2 17 11.7 3 +24.5 3
Boise State 6-0 6-0 38.9 7 15.5 8 +23.4 4
Notre Dame 4-2 6-0 42.5 3 21.1 21 +21.3 5
Michigan State 5-1 5-1 28.4 60 7.6 1 +20.9 6
Oregon 5-1 6-0 42.9 2 24.0 35 +19.0 7
Stanford 6-0 6-0 36.3 16 18.2 11 +18.2 8
Texas A&M 4-2 6-0 41.1 5 23.0 28 +18.1 9
Wisconsin 6-0 6-0 40.7 6 23.6 33 +17.1 10
Penn State 6-1 7-0 28.3 63 11.7 2 +16.6 11
SMU 5-1 5-1 34.9 22 19.3 17 +15.6 12
Central Florida 3-3 5-1 30.4 48 14.8 6 +15.6 13
Florida State 3-3 6-0 32.9 35 17.8 10 +15.2 14
South Carolina 6-1 6-1 30.5 47 15.5 7 +15.0 15
Missouri 3-3 5-1 35.8 19 21.6 22 +14.2 16
Michigan 6-1 6-1 37.3 12 23.2 30 +14.0 17
Virginia Tech 6-1 6-1 31.5 42 17.5 9 +13.9 18
Georgia 5-2 7-0 32.8 37 19.0 15 +13.8 19
Oklahoma State 6-0 6-0 37.4 10 25.4 40 +12.1 20
Baylor 4-2 6-0 41.2 4 29.3 73 +11.9 21
West Virginia 5-1 4-2 36.4 15 25.9 42 +10.5 22
Illinois 6-1 6-1 31.1 45 20.8 20 +10.3 23
Houston 6-0 5-1 37.5 9 27.2 55 +10.3 24
Toledo 4-3 5-2 35.7 20 26.2 44 +9.6 25
Virginia 4-2 5-1 28.3 62 18.8 14 +9.5 26
Temple 5-2 5-2 27.5 68 19.0 16 +8.4 27
North Carolina 5-2 7-0 34.9 21 27.0 52 +7.9 28
Arkansas 5-1 5-1 33.2 32 25.3 39 +7.9 29
TCU 4-2 6-0 34.0 28 26.3 48 +7.7 30
Georgia Tech 6-1 5-2 36.7 13 29.1 71 +7.5 31
Ohio State 4-3 5-2 26.1 78 18.5 12 +7.5 32
Arizona State 5-2 6-1 33.5 29 26.2 45 +7.3 33
Northern Illinois 4-3 4-3 33.3 30 26.3 46 +7.0 34
Nebraska 5-1 5-1 33.2 33 26.3 47 +6.9 35
Cincinnati 5-1 5-1 33.3 31 26.5 50 +6.7 36
Tennessee 3-3 4-2 34.9 23 28.4 69 +6.5 37
Clemson 7-0 5-2 34.5 24 28.1 63 +6.5 38
South Florida 4-2 4-2 30.5 46 24.5 36 +6.0 39
Nevada 3-3 4-2 28.0 65 22.1 23 +5.9 40
Miami-FL 3-3 4-2 37.3 11 31.5 97 +5.8 41
Texas 4-2 3-3 27.7 66 22.7 27 +5.1 42
Western Michigan 4-3 5-2 32.9 36 28.0 61 +4.9 43
Utah State 2-4 4-2 34.3 25 29.5 77 +4.8 44
Washington 5-1 5-1 36.0 18 31.4 94 +4.6 45
Southern Miss 5-1 5-1 30.3 49 25.8 41 +4.5 46
Kansas State 6-0 4-2 26.8 72 22.3 25 +4.5 47
Florida 4-3 4-3 28.8 59 24.6 37 +4.2 48
USC 5-1 4-2 32.3 38 28.2 64 +4.1 49
Rutgers 5-1 4-2 22.5 100 18.6 13 +3.9 50
Wake Forest 4-2 2-4 27.5 69 23.6 32 +3.9 51
Auburn 5-2 5-2 31.2 44 27.8 59 +3.4 52
Utah 3-3 2-4 22.8 96 19.4 18 +3.4 53
California 3-3 2-4 23.0 94 19.8 19 +3.3 54
Tulsa 3-3 4-2 30.3 51 27.1 54 +3.2 55
UCLA 3-3 4-2 33.0 34 29.8 79 +3.1 56
Ohio 4-3 4-3 29.8 53 26.9 51 +2.9 57
Navy 2-4 3-3 37.6 8 34.7 120 +2.9 58
Arizona 1-5 3-3 34.1 26 31.5 98 +2.6 59
Iowa 4-2 3-3 34.1 27 31.9 102 +2.2 60
Louisiana Tech 2-4 4-2 25.8 80 23.8 34 +2.1 61
Purdue 3-3 2-4 28.4 61 26.4 49 +2.0 62
Florida International 4-2 3-3 31.3 43 29.4 74 +1.9 63
Arkansas State 4-2 4-2 29.0 57 27.3 57 +1.7 64
Texas Tech 4-2 5-1 32.1 39 30.9 87 +1.3 65
Maryland 2-4 3-3 29.0 58 28.0 60 +1.0 66
San Diego State 4-2 3-3 26.2 77 25.2 38 +1.0 67
Syracuse 4-2 4-2 28.2 64 27.3 56 +0.9 68
Mississippi State 3-4 3-4 26.2 75 26.0 43 +0.2 69
UL-Monroe 2-4 2-4 22.5 101 22.6 26 -0.1 70
BYU 5-2 4-3 27.4 70 27.5 58 -0.1 71
Vanderbilt 3-3 3-3 22.6 99 23.1 29 -0.5 72
Hawaii 3-3 3-3 29.1 56 29.6 78 -0.5 73
Northwestern 2-4 2-4 32.0 41 32.6 105 -0.6 74
Army 2-4 1-5 30.3 52 31.3 92 -1.1 75
UTEP 3-3 3-3 26.7 73 28.3 67 -1.6 76
Pittsburgh 3-4 4-3 25.1 83 27.0 53 -2.0 77
Duke 3-3 2-4 29.2 54 31.5 100 -2.3 78
Bowling Green 3-4 4-3 27.7 67 30.4 83 -2.7 79
Air Force 3-3 1-5 32.0 40 35.0 123 -3.0 80
Middle Tennessee 1-4 1-4 30.3 50 33.4 112 -3.1 81
Connecticut 3-4 2-5 20.1 112 23.4 31 -3.3 82
NC State 3-3 2-4 26.9 71 31.4 96 -4.6 83
Colorado 1-6 2-5 26.2 76 30.7 86 -4.6 84
Washington State 3-3 1-5 26.3 74 31.1 89 -4.9 85
Kansas 2-4 1-5 29.2 55 34.3 119 -5.1 86
Iowa State 3-3 1-5 24.0 87 29.5 75 -5.5 87
Fresno State 3-4 2-5 26.0 79 31.8 101 -5.9 88
East Carolina 2-4 2-4 25.6 82 31.5 99 -5.9 89
Louisville 2-4 1-5 23.2 92 29.2 72 -5.9 90
New Mexico State 3-3 1-5 25.1 84 31.2 90 -6.1 91
UL-Lafayette 6-1 1-6 23.4 91 29.8 80 -6.5 92
Central Michigan 2-5 2-5 23.6 90 30.3 82 -6.7 93
Marshall 3-4 1-6 20.8 111 28.0 62 -7.3 94
Oregon State 1-5 1-5 22.1 103 29.5 76 -7.3 95
Eastern Michigan 4-3 2-5 24.0 88 31.4 95 -7.4 96
Troy 2-4 1-5 23.6 89 31.2 91 -7.6 97
Ball State 4-3 2-5 24.9 85 32.7 107 -7.8 98
Buffalo 2-5 1-6 25.8 81 33.7 115 -7.9 99
San Jose State 3-4 0-7 22.1 104 30.2 81 -8.2 100
Rice 2-4 1-5 23.1 93 31.3 93 -8.2 101
Wyoming 4-2 0-6 24.4 86 32.9 109 -8.5 102
Miami-OH 2-4 1-5 19.2 114 28.3 66 -9.1 103
Western Kentucky 2-4 1-5 18.9 115 28.2 65 -9.3 104
Ole Miss 2-4 0-6 22.6 98 32.1 103 -9.4 105
Boston College 1-5 0-6 21.0 109 31.1 88 -10.1 106
Indiana 1-6 1-6 22.7 97 33.0 110 -10.3 107
Kent State 1-6 1-6 11.5 126 22.2 24 -10.8 108
Tulane 2-5 2-5 21.7 106 32.7 108 -11.0 109
North Texas 2-5 0-7 22.0 105 33.0 111 -11.0 110
Idaho 1-6 0-7 17.2 119 28.4 68 -11.1 111
Colorado State 2-4 0-6 21.5 107 32.7 106 -11.2 112
Minnesota 1-5 0-6 22.2 102 33.5 113 -11.3 113
Kentucky 2-4 0-6 16.8 120 28.7 70 -11.8 114
UNLV 1-5 2-4 18.2 117 30.4 84 -12.2 115
New Mexico 0-6 1-5 22.9 95 35.4 124 -12.5 116
Akron 1-5 0-6 19.9 113 34.1 117 -14.2 117
Florida Atlantic 0-6 0-6 13.5 124 30.7 85 -17.2 118
UAB 0-6 0-6 17.6 118 36.6 126 -19.0 119
Memphis 1-6 0-7 14.6 123 35.0 122 -20.3 120

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